Swing Constituencies - Likely FG Gains?

PH01

I've done a tally and it seems to me that on a best case scenario here are the likely gains for FG (I'm not counting the likely gains from LAB or the Greens)

1. Clare from Ind;
2. Cork North West from FF;
3. Dublin South from PD;
4. Dublin South West from FF;
5. Dun Laoghaire from PD;
6. Galway East from Ind;
7. Galway West from PD;
8. Kerry South from Ind;
9. Laois Offaly from PD;
10. Limerick East from PD;
11. Louth from FF;
12. Tipperary North from FF;

What do you think?

And given this, I reckon that'll be 78 seats for FG, LAB and the Greens.
Then if they bring Higgins and Daly (Socialists), that other socialist from Kildare North, Tony Gregory, and Lowry they'll just about make it!

Voipjunkie

PH01 wrote:

I've done a tally and it seems to me that on a best case scenario here are the likely gains for FG (I'm not counting the likely gains from LAB or the Greens)

1. Clare from Ind;
2. Cork North West from FF;
3. Dublin South from PD;
4. Dublin South West from FF;
5. Dun Laoghaire from PD;
6. Galway East from Ind;
7. Galway West from PD;
8. Kerry South from Ind;
9. Laois Offaly from PD;
10. Limerick East from PD;
11. Louth from FF;
12. Tipperary North from FF;

What do you think?

And given this, I reckon that'll be 78 seats for FG, LAB and the Greens.
Then if they bring Higgins and Daly (Socialists), that other socialist from Kildare North, Tony Gregory, and Lowry they'll just about make it!

Does not sound very stable even if you could get Higgins and Daly to support FG in Government

On that 78 what have you FG on 45 lab on 23 and the greens on 10 ?

PH01

Voipjunkie wrote:

Does not sound very stable even if you could get Higgins and Daly to support FG in Government

Surely those two would fit quite nicely with Labour\Democratic Left?

Voipjunkie wrote:

On that 78 what have you FG on 45 lab on 23 and the greens on 10 ?

Not quite. I've...
FG = 49 (and gaining 2 from LAB in Cork East and Dublin Mid West);
LAB = 20;
GREENS = 9.

Voipjunkie

PH01 wrote:

Surely those two would fit quite nicely with Labour\Democratic Left?

No the only thing socialists hate more than capitalists is other socialists. The SP are not compatible at all with Labour

PH01 wrote:

Not quite. I've...
FG = 49 (and gaining 2 from LAB in Cork East and Dublin Mid West);
LAB = 20;
GREENS = 9.

So no gains for labour what 3 seats have you the greens down for

raven136

PH01 wrote:

I've done a tally and it seems to me that on a best case scenario here are the likely gains for FG (I'm not counting the likely gains from LAB or the Greens)

1. Clare from Ind;
2. Cork North West from FF;
3. Dublin South from PD;
4. Dublin South West from FF;
5. Dun Laoghaire from PD;
6. Galway East from Ind;
7. Galway West from PD;
8. Kerry South from Ind;
9. Laois Offaly from PD;
10. Limerick East from PD;
11. Louth from FF;
12. Tipperary North from FF;

dont think the ind will be lost in clare or kerry south.Parlon may hold his seat and liz o donnell cant be ruled out yet.
Higgins and daly wouldnt support the fine gael and neityher would sf so they will be short still

PH01

Voipjunkie wrote:

So no gains for labour what 3 seats have you the greens down for

Probably the easiest thing to do is to put it all down...

cm2000

PH01 wrote:

Dublin West 1 1 1 (Higgins)

you think burton is losing her seat? i'd agree with you to be honest.

PH01

cm2000 wrote:

you think burton is losing her seat? i'd agree with you to be honest.

Sorry I made a mistake on my original formatting - posted an image instead
I see Burton just holding on from FGs Varadkar

cm2000

PH01 wrote:

Sorry I made a mistake on my original formatting - posted an image instead
I see Burton just holding on from FGs Varadkar

not a chance imo. i wont be voting for him but i'd imagine he will come in at at least second in dulin west. he has launched an excellent campaign and has more momentum than any other campaign in the area.

Red Alert

Dublin South has shatter, mitchell and o'leary up for the FG ticket. I think Liz O'Donnell will go but I don't know who will get in instead.

jank

I think a gain in Cork south Central may be on the cards but I dont know who? Clune or buttimer. However Labours Ciaran Lynch may be the real winner here. Cant see FF holding onto the 3 seats they have here.

Voipjunkie

PH01 wrote:

Probably the easiest thing to do is to put it all down...

Don't want to drag your thread off topic but on your figures with Labour down and they could lose a couple more I would have thought that the likely hood is that FF/Lab would be the only stable Government in which case a challenge to Rabittes leadership on the basis that the FG deal had been a disaster for lab and Howlin for Tanaiste with Cowen as Taoiseach seems far more likely than a government with Deasy and Higgins in it.

brianthebard

I haven't been home in a while but there will definitely be a FG and FF seat there I think the third seat in Sligo/North leitrim is still up for grabs, there are a lot of candidates this year, there are also three FG candidates, so I would be surprised if between their transfers and possible Labour transfers they didn't at least run close to getting the final seat.

redspider

PH01 wrote:

Probably the easiest thing to do is to put it all down...

It would be useful perhaps if you could also add a column and identify the swings. ie GAIN LOSS
SF FF
etc.

In terms of your original query, isnt it more likely the case that the majority of constituencies will see some sort of change in representation in tems of parties and/or personnel?

Maybe the added columns would clearly identify that.

Redspider

Badabing

I pray to god that mr. smug brian hayes doesn't make it in Dublin south west.

delta_bravo

Badabing wrote:

I pray to god that mr. smug brian hayes doesn't make it in Dublin south west.

I agree with you there. I did think that he would get in at the expense of Charlie O Connor but im not so sure anymore. It will be very tight. Hayes will probably lose some first preferences to Rabbite and the new green party candidate Davidson

Colonel Sanders

does anyone think Lucinda Creighton can win a seat in dublin south east? Ruairi Quin and John Gormley are probably safe, FF will surely get one seat (bookies say it'll be Chris Andrews and not Jim O'Callaghan) and McDowells there also.

delta_bravo

Colonel Sanders wrote:

does anyone think Lucinda Creighton can win a seat in dublin south east? Ruairi Quin and John Gormley are probably safe, FF will surely get one seat (bookies say it'll be Chris Andrews and not Jim O'Callaghan) and McDowells there also.

Is that a 4 or 5 seater? That constituency is hotly contested with such high profile labour,green and pd candidates. Id say she has a good chance because both ff candidates are first timers i think and i hear O Callaghan i doing very poorly. Andrews might get in on his family name

Badabing

It's a 4 seater, i tink Chris Andrews will get the ff seat here, its amazing Ruari Quinn is very high proflie but is never safe here usually takes the 3rd or 4th seat.

Colonel Sanders

Dublin SE is where I live in Dublin but I actually vote in wexford. From what i hear she's making a good impression on doorsteps and is polling well.

raven136

How manyInd are expected to lose their seats?SF to go to 10 and the Greens to add maybe 2 or 3 more.FF will have to drop a lot of seats for a change of government.

It just seems more likely that it will be a FF government with support from SF and IND,unless Rabbite is deposed as leader of the Labour party and they hop into bed with Bertie.The local polls arent as bad for FF,take Kildare south,despite the bad poll predicitons nationally FF still in with a shout for the 2nd seat.FG are running 2 candidates when surely one would have a better chance to shore it up

The Rooster

Firstly, the Socialist Party are on record as saying they will not support either a FF or FG led government.

FG are strongly tipped to gain a seat in Dublin North (where Nora Owen was ousted last time). Dr James Reilly is the FG candidate, but as a member of that constituency I think he could do with raising his profile. Its a four seater, with only one sitting TD (Trevor Sargent) running, so its wide open and hard to predict.

Jonny Arson

45/55 chance of Fine Gael stealing the all but certain lost FF seat in Dublin NE 5from Sinn Féin. Brody Sweeney would probably the Fine Gael candidate to take it.

redspider

Galway West is a close marginal seat. The shoe-in seats in this 5x seater are 2xFF, 1xGP, 1xLab, and the final seat is a battle royale between Noel Grealish (PD), Padraic McCormack (FG), Michael Crowe (FF). Such battles will determine the power base in the Dail.

Overall, FF and FG do better in the smaller 3-seaters than the 5-seaters on average. This is not surprising as smaller 3-seaters suit bigger parties rather than smaller parties. And that raises a key point for me constitutionally. Shouldn't all constituencies be the same in terms of the no. of seats? In a 5-seater, a citizen has a greater chance of being represented more democratically/accurately than in a 3-seater. So all citizens are not being treated equally! And for demoratic reasons, shouldnt constituencies actually be larger in terms of seats, such as 7 or 8 or indeed 10!

raven136 wrote:

FF will have to drop a lot of seats for a change of government.

It just seems more likely that it will be a FF government with support from SF and IND,unless Rabbite is deposed as leader of the Labour party and they hop into bed with Bertie. The local polls arent as bad for FF, take Kildare south, despite the bad poll predicitons nationally FF still in with a shout for the 2nd seat. FG are running 2 candidates when surely one would have a better chance to shore it up

FF dont have to drop that many seats though not to be able to form a majority with whatever the PD's get and may not have enough with the GP who dont fancy them too much anyway.

FF wont go to bed with SF. Its more likely that Labour could support a minority FF government for an interim 6-month period for 'the good of the country'. Rabbite wouldnt have to resign because it would be seen as altrusitic, an interim solution, a stepping stone before another election, etc. Labour would not provide ministers, etc.

Another option perhaps is SF doing the same (ie: abstaining) and supporting a minority FG+Lab+GP+some independents. Whether the rainbow would allow that to happen I dont know but it would seem like a win-win situation to me to the parties concerned, with FG+Lab+GP getting the power they crave and SF getting some power by abstaining.

As for Kildare South (3 seats), I reckon:
Sean Power (FF)
Jack Wall (Lab)
Sean O' Fearghail (FF)

Richard Daly (FG) has an outside chance.

The problem with the national opinion polls is that we are not having one single national election. It is 43x constituencies with a local set of personalities and issues and preferences. FF are strong in Kildare South so even a weakness in their support there may not affect them in terms of seats. It may however affect more weaker and vulnerable seats.

I wish the media would stop all this nonsense with national polls every couple of days and instead conduct 43x constituency polls, which is what would actually be relevant to the election outcome. PD's at 2 or 3% - that is not information, it is meaningless, and likewise for all the parties except for FF and FG where a large national opinion like this can have some overall significance but it can only hint towards the outcome, an is far from accurate or predictive.

Redspider

Voipjunkie

redspider wrote:

Overall, FF and FG do better in the smaller 3-seaters than the 5-seaters on average. This is not surprising as smaller 3-seaters suit bigger parties rather than smaller parties. And that raises a key point for me constitutionally. Shouldn't all constituencies be the same in terms of the no. of seats? In a 5-seater, a citizen has a greater chance of being represented more democratically/accurately than in a 3-seater. So all citizens are not being treated equally! And for demoratic reasons, shouldnt constituencies actually be larger in terms of seats, such as 7 or 8 or indeed 10!

I have been thinking that myself if you look at the northside of Dublin Dublin NW NC and NE are all now 3 seaters would it not be better to have a 4 and a 5 and redraw the boundaries that way
Looking at Dublin NC it is the Independent candidate that is favourite to lose out as this goes from 4 to 3 with FF expected to hold 2 out of 3 even though they are doing crap in the National polls.

redspider

Voipjunkie wrote:

I have been thinking that myself if you look at the northside of Dublin Dublin NW NC and NE are all now 3 seaters would it not be better to have a 4 and a 5 and redraw the boundaries that way
Looking at Dublin NC it is the Independent candidate that is favourite to lose out as this goes from 4 to 3 with FF expected to hold 2 out of 3 even though they are doing crap in the National polls.

Yes, I agree.

The problem with changing the current system its like trying to get the turkeys (FF/FG - no offence intended, to Dustin that is!) to vote for Xmas, and that wont happen any time soon.

I dont hear many parties claiming in their manifesto that they want to change the electoral system. Mind you, I havent read the fine print on any of them.

Redspider