Paddy Power's Dail.

JeanClaude

Alot of people say that "the bookies rarely get it wrong" so armed with this litte nugget of wisdom i decided to see how the bookies see our next Dail shaping up.
So just taking Kildare North(4 seater), as an example, i quite simply took the 4 leading candidates in the betting and gave them the seats.(does exactly what it says on the tin:) ).

Emmet Stagg (Lab) 1 - 20
Aine Brady (FF) 1-6 1-5 2 - 9
Catherine Murphy (Ind) 2-5 1 - 4
Bernard Durkan (FG) 2-5 4-11 1 - 3
Michael Fitzpatrick (FF) 4-7 1-2 4 - 9
Darren Scully (FG) 10 - 11
Shane Fitzgerald (Green) 7-1 15 - 2
Cristin McCauley (SF) 16-1 20 - 1
Jeff Aherne (PDs) 25 - 1

Applying this to every constituency, i have come up with the following "Paddy Power's Dail".:D

FF- 70
FG- 46
LAB- 19
PD- 3
SF- 10
GREEN- 9
SOCIALIST- 2
IND- 7

As you can see the interesting thing is that the only coalition, according to this "poll", that can make up a majority Government (83 seats) is FF/PD/SF..:eek: considering that FF have stated "we'd rather go into oposition than govern with SF", and the obvious distaste for SF the PD'S have (and vice versa), you would then have FF/PD on 73 seats and FG/LAB/GREEN on 74 seats IF this is how it stood on May 25th, what would happen if a majority government couldn't be formed?

disclaimer:i know this theory is flawed, same could be said for any poll, and this was only done as a bit of fun.

jhegarty

Simple answer FF + LAB (89 seats)....

JeanClaude

jhegarty wrote:

Simple answer FF + LAB (89 seats)....

Fair enough answer , but could Labour be taken seriously if they went into government with FF , especially with their vote pact (Mullingar accord) with FG? "time for change" and all that, or is it Labour's policy to get into government no matter what? would the fact they hold ministerial offices allow them to state "we'll keep aneye on FF, unlike the PD'S":D

Dar

JeanClaude wrote:

the only coalition, according to this "poll", that can make up a majority Government (83 seats) is FF/PD/SF

Given McDowells stance on SF, going into government with them would be the final nail in the coffin of PD credability. Never going to happen.

The_Minister

JeanClaude wrote:

Fair enough answer , but could Labour be taken seriously if they went into government with FF ,

never stopped them before.

redspider

This is about the 3rd or 4th poster on here who has taken PaddyPowers 'expectations' and totted them up. I think PaddyPowers figures (and yours) will be close enough to the outcome but there is likely to be some shocks along the way. Bookies dont get everything right and we know with these types of elections that a handful of votes here or there among the many counts and transfers will swing a seat or two. Its is not predictable.

> what would happen if a majority government couldn't be formed?

One possibility is that Labour will give tacit/quiet minority support to FF to allow the 'country to be ran' as a minority Government, and take over the 'watchdog' role that the PD's claim to hold over FF. This would likely be a short-lived Government, maybe 6 months.

Labour would in this situation not hold any Minsiterial positions and would abstain (even perhaps with FG joining them and taking the high moral ground) on issues. Its a way to have power without exercising it fully yet retain key participative and influential control.

But Labour would only do so tactically and well publicised as a means to an end "to help the country along". I would then forseee another election in the autumn, with most likely Brian Cowen as the FF leader. Why FF didnt do it this time around I cant fathom, although most FF TD's would recognise that Bertie is more of a pull than Cowen is likely to be. Enda Kenny might be gone as well for the 2nd one.

Redspider

PH01

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055089714

I agree with the RedSpider to a point that bookies are close but not accurate.
The Poll are some what accurate but the PR system will have the last laugh I feel.

On the result, I feel that we're most likely to get a FF\LAB government after all is done and dusted.
Now whether Bertie or Rabbitte will be their parties leaders at that stage is anyone guess. But I reckon the most likely faller here will be Rabbitte who has stated that he'll resign before going into Government with FF.

However, the other 'Alternative' coalition could still do it but just. If FG do better than expected and they pull in ALL of the independants along with the Greens and Lab that might just get 83 seats (a majority with the Chairs vote to 84) - but it'll be a short lived coalition.

JeanClaude

Sorry for duplicating your thread PH01. i genuinly didn't see your thread (which i must say, is presented much better than mine ).

The sad thing about these figures, whatever government you make out of them, people here reckon we'll have another Election within 6-12 months.:(