Live 5/5 hand: Value bet this river?

Hitman Actual

Can I value-bet this river, and is my line standard?

Some history against villain: About half an hour previously I double-through him when he made a 3xBB UTG raise, I call in SB with 56d after a table-full of callers, flop the nuts (478r), and get paid on a 9r turn, telling him his hand is either JJ or TT. It's TT. In general, he's the tightest player at the table, and playing ok. But he's wary of me cos I'm beered-up-stupid, telling people their hands before they display, and being right or very close.

In this hand, game is 7-handed, effective stacks are €600, blinds 5/5. I raise utg to 20 with QdQs, villain calls UTG+1, two more callers.

Flop (85) J84r. I bet 75, villain calls, everyone else folds.

Turn (235) 6, making a 2-flush on board, I check, villain bets 200. I call. Standard?

River (635) 2x, no flush possible. I have 300 left, he covers. Anyone like a value bet/shove?

jhegarty

what do you put him on ?


i'd check to call.... in case he has missed his flush/straigh draw and still wants to take the pot....

cardshark202

I prefer check-shoving the turn to calling and leading this river. However if he's been pretty tight you can fold this turn when he bets so strong. I think you should check this river, probably folding if he puts you in.

jimmii

I'd just carry on betting the turn after checking the turn i'd be more inclined to shove it in there if he has a set so be it in calling your just giving him another card to catch up if he is behind. If you are willing to get it in on the river you may as well get it in on the turn.

What range of hands do you have him for this hand? If your reads are pretty good I would be inclined to weight decisions based on those reads. He could be betting the turn after your check as feels you have given it up after a CB on the flop and that you aren't willing to fire again with A high against him as he is pretty tight and he knows that you assume he has something after he's called on the flop.

bops

lenny_leonard wrote:

...telling people their hands before they display, and being right or very close.

firstly, don't be doing that!

where was 5/5 game? i only know one place

as played, if you think your hand is good, i'd go for my chips as if i was gonna make a move, then look at him and chicken out and check it - giving him the room to hang himself - i think he'd push here with a weeker hand/missed draw

Hectorjelly

I would just push the turn after he bet 200 if I wanted to go with the hand. The pot is 600 and you only have 300 left, I doubt he is folding anything.

bubbleking

ship the motherfcuking sherbert on the turn your pot committed at this stage

Hitman Actual

bops wrote:

firstly, don't be doing that!

where was 5/5 game? i only know one place

I'm Beered-Up-Stupid, remember! The game is in the Crane Club, Mullingar. A nice game, outside my BR tbh, but potentially very profitable.

His hand is either a broadway Jack (AJ most likely, but maybe KJs/QJs), or a flopped set. I suppose putting him on KJ/QJ makes my description of him being tight a bit off. Also, he would re-raise pre with AA/KK. But I think he only calls a turn check-shove with a set, and folds all his Jack hands.

Hectorjelly

He has to call 300 more on the turn to win 1200, so I really doubt he is folding any good hand he bets 200 with. Also because the pot is so big its not really a disaster if he folds. If he has any pair he will win 15% of the time anyway. Also he might have a hand like 9T (or a weak pair) and decide not to put any more money in the river unless he improves.

jimmii

He'd be calling 275 to win a 705 pot or there abouts. I think he's calling with a good few hands that you are ahead of.

NickyOD

Turn play makes no sense. Why go into check call mode when you're never folding.

Marq

I prefer to push the turn. As played I would lead the river simply because if he bets you're never folding.

Hitman Actual

OK, I accept that it's a fairly obvious turn RAI. But once I get to the river, I believe calling if he shoves is marginal. This guy mostly checks behind his weaker hands, and shoves his sets. I'd say with a ratio of at least 3 out of 4 he has a set when he shoves, which makes a 3/1 call by me very tight.

Anyway, action went check-check, he had AJ and MHIG.

Cheers for the replies, sorry if it's a fairly basic situation!

coillcam

who is the villain ? Alex/Darren ?

i wouldda bet turn.

plenty of content there

Hitman Actual

coillcam wrote:

who is the villain ? Alex/Darren ?

I said he was tight, ffs!:D

First time I saw the guy; he plays tighter than the average player there, although that's not saying a lot.

valor

i would just bet the turn myself