Fine Gael are up 3 and Fianna Fáil down 2 - Sunday Business Poll 13/5/07

E92

Very good news for the alternative, very bad news for Feel and Fail. Fine Gael on 29%, the highest ever for Fine Gael in a Sunday Business Post RedC poll since the tracking polls began. That is a great result, but of course there's still almost 2 weeks left before polling day. Feel and Fail on 35% down 2, Labour unchanged at 12%, the Shinners down 1 to 7%, the Greens also down 1 to 6%, Indy's at 8%, PDs up 1 to 3%. So the alternative have gained 3 points and the incumbants have lost 1 point. The poll was taken on Thursday I believe. Bertie is to make a statement on his personal Finances on Monday. Hopefully that will be the end of that till the Mahon tribunal resumes then.

In the meantime the shift for an alternative is stepping up a gear it seams.

Combinations
FG+Lab 41%
FF+PD 37%
FG+Lab+GP 47%

Now on RTÉ http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0512/poll.html

Mick86

E92 wrote:

Very good news for the alternative, very bad news for Feel and Fail.

Isn't that what the polls said in 2002. For one thing, I find it hard to believe that SF have dropped 1% in the week that the NI Assembly kicked off again.

Voipjunkie

Mick86 wrote:

Isn't that what the polls said in 2002. For one thing, I find it hard to believe that SF have dropped 1% in the week that the NI Assembly kicked off again.

National Polls are of limited value in this country they give a general impression but basically they tell us very little about how the smaller parties will do

What would be far more interesting would be an accurate poll in key constituencies like Dublin C,SE,MW,NE,NW, Wicklow , Galway west, Laois Offaly Louth

brianthebard

Can you stop calling them Feel and fail OP? I'm not a FF supporter but even I find it annoying when you constantly have to get a dig in somehow. Its very petty.

OT its nice to see poll results suggesting a change is wanted, but there is still a possibility of FF+Lab, which would equal the FG/Lab/Green percentage, but would almost certainly be a more stable choice.

simu

brianthebard wrote:

Can you stop calling them Feel and fail OP? I'm not a FF supporter but even I find it annoying when you constantly have to get a dig in somehow. Its very petty.

Agreed. It gives a poor impression of young FG tbh.

InFront

Mick86 wrote:

Isn't that what the polls said in 2002.

No. The polls were talking about an overall majority for FF and FG meltdown in 2002. And both situations very nearly did happen.

For one thing, I find it hard to believe that SF have dropped 1% in the week that the NI Assembly kicked off again.

It doesn't make much sense that people would vote for them out of something they have done and is now finished with. That's over, it tells nothing about their future plans for the south. I don't find the lack of movement surprising at all.

I agree with voipjunkie about the small parties' performances, but even within different constituencies there is a consistent trend about who is in trouble and who is perceived to be 'safe'. That's the best marker for those parties' numbers situation at the moment.

E92

True I find it hard to believe as well.Actually that poll was done between Monday and Wednesday. I guess not that many people are that bothered by what happened up there. The only parties that really talk about NI are Feel and Fail and the Shinners. Thats why I said the poll was so bad of Feel and Fail. Its a bad poll for the Shinners too, for the same reason. Its even worse because of course the whole payments to Bertie Ahern thing was still going on on Monday, something that I would have though would have seen a big bounce for Feel and Fail. When put in that context, it is a very good poll for the alternative. A reason why the Shinners and the Greens may be down is because the public know that there is a choice: either FG+Lab or FF+PD. Sinn Fein wont be in the reckoning unless Feel and Fail are desperate, the Greens may well be, the Indys will be last resort(again for Feel and Fail, most Indys are from the Feel and Fail gene pool so to speak).

E92

Well I aint a member of Young Fine Gael, and actually have nothing to do with Fine Gael as it happens. Just merely a Fine Gael supporter. Going back to my use of the term Feel and Fail, many people in Fianna Fáil like to mispronounce the 'Fine' part of Fine Gael. They pronounce Fine as if it were to be said in English. THey often call it Fine(as in its a fine day) Gael. But yes, I'll try not to call Fianna Fáil 'Feel and Fail' from now on.

As for FF+Lab if FG+Lab or FG+Lab+GP have the numbers you can be absolutely sure that Lab wont make a last minute change. I'm sure Labour will remember the Spring Tide incident when they decided to go in with FF. They had 33 seats. They went down to 21 5 years later. As for them not being stable that is BS IMO because the time DL+FG+Lab went into govt in 94 people thought it wouldnt last a week. In the end they managed 2.5 years, and the three parties fought the election of 97 on a united base(ie that the 3 parties would go in together again), the election was called because it had to be called.

brianthebard

2.5 years suggests a government that wasn't stable enough to last five! Seriously, can't you see that the more parties you put into a government, the more voices you have pulling it in different directions?

InFront

Labour were the ones who managed to stay in power for the full term for the whole five years. It was Fianna fail who left Government half way through the term, Labour stayed sitting on Government benches the whole time.
Fine Gael saved the day by sitting with them in Government, and together they brought in free third level education, dropped unemployment drastically, and delivered a budget surplus - something that many Irish people had no memory of until that time.

To say that Labour are unstable is a bit of a joke, really. FF were the dropouts.

brianthebard

I'm not saying Labour are unstable. Read my post again.

InFront

Who are you saying is unstable then, the rest of the Government who also went to full term with them?

brianthebard

Well since that particular government split I would say so, yes. You're missing my point, its not the party's that are unstable, but by putting their (often contradictory) policies together in government that you create an unstable government.

InFront

brianthebard wrote:

Well since that particular government split I would say so, yes.

When? They didn't split, the term came to its natural end and as e92 said, they fought the 1997 election as a Government wishing to return to office with F.G.

Anyway, a coalition is irrelevant. Realistically it's either going to be FG-Lab-Green or perhaps FF-Lab and some other things, so it's a moot point.

brianthebard

You said yourself that FF left that government half way through.

InFront

Well then presumably what you mean is that FF were the unstable party?

Originally posted by brianthebard:

Who are you saying is unstable then, the rest of the Government who also went to full term with them?

Well since that particular government split I would say so, yes

Your point to e92 was that 2.5 years suggested that the rainbow coalition were unstable. This just isn't the case, most of the coalition had been in office the whole five years, and only because FF left Government were FG brought in halfway through.

Dave!

I also find it unusual that SF are down this week, while the PDs are up..... I'll take this poll with a pinch of salt TBH. But it is good news.

The very off topic posts have been deleted.

Some of the other posts are veering slightly that way aswell.

Stay on topic here folks ie discuss the impact of this poll on your choice of government.

Lennoxschips

What was said was that more parties in government is less stable. However, it was the two party coalition between FF and Lab that collapsed in 1994, the three party coalition of FG+Lab+DL ran its course untill the next election. So three was better than two, in that case. I think coalition stability is more to do with the parties all being on the same page.

The poll is looking good for a coalition. Luckily FF+Lab is only at 47%, so it's not so easy for Labour to screw their electorate again like in 1992.

To be honest I think FF's support long-term is shrinking due to an ageing support base. Irish politics in 20 years from now will look very different.