Whats my next action here??

semibluff

Playing a deepstacked tournie. 10k start ;ive event, im up to 13k having drifted down as far as 6.5k.

This is the third hand in a row i have raised pre flop. The first two i had AQ and 77 - took both down, blinds plus some limpers. Im not a rock, but am respected at the table.

Im in mid pos - one limper already (loves to see a flop - no major worry)
BB is 300

I make it 1300 with JJ

To my immediate left makes it 3100. pretty sharp re-raise, not much time taken on it. button dwells and folds as does every one else. Back to me . . .

(villain has been very inactive, seems to be a decent player but hard to know how good he is considering how little i have seen him. He has 14.5k before hand starts.)

Speech play ensues which leads me to believe he is strong - ie 99+ or AJ+ but then i had been raising alot and this could be him playing back at me.

It is less likely that he is doing this with air, so more than likely he is a strong as suspected

Whats my move now

300 player event - 260 left

sikes

fold. and faster then he raised.

jimmii

Whats the buy-in for the game? At this stage there's nothing wrong with taking a gamble. What range do you think he is calling with here? If there are long slow blind levels then you can even just flat call and see what you get on the flop as if it isn't a nice flop you can fold and still have a healthy stack. I think this has to really be read dependant if you think he is folding everything other than AA/KK then by all means go for it and if you find yo've ran into one of those then its just unlucky.

Lazare

This is a tough one Donal, and player dependent. Against a good player that's paying attention I'd consider pushing this, but they are rare. The fact that you're unsure leans towards a fold.

Is there any merit to a stop n go?

jimmii

I think its just about deep enough to flat call and have a look at the flop its not a great way to play but its ok here. I don't think its a stop and go situation more a stop and look.

Gholimoli

Lazare wrote:

This is a tough one Donal, and player dependent. Against a good player that's paying attention I'd consider pushing this, but they are rare. The fact that you're unsure leans towards a fold.

Is there any merit to a stop n go?

i dont think its ever correct under any condition or against any one to push here ever.

you can call or fold this and both have advantages and disadvantages .
it depends really but with that range its ok to fold here.

jimmii

It depends what you think his range is now and what range he will call with. Some people are raising here with a very wide range but only calling another raise with a very narrow range.

Flushdraw

I always hate making a 3rd successive raise because you dont know if players have genuine hands or are just p!ssed off at you. I'd fold because you dont need to get involved OOP when you dont know where you stand

You have to think ahead to what your action will be on the flop. The pot will be 6500 and if it comes all rag to your overpair, whats your action going to be first to act? If theres overcards you wont be too happy either. Not a good spot to be in unless you have a definite read that youre ahead

cooker3

Considering your read I fold. I don't really like calling as your oop and the pot is getting quite big.

DeadMoney

I'd Fold here. Jacks are way too vulnerable in this spot.

semibluff

I am pretty sure that he isnt "at it".

Are we deep enough to peel off a flop - even if facing overpairs? (i put him on AK at worst - with only 10% of me thinking he is at it, or i have hime dominated)


Does his raise (only slightly over a min raise) allow me to call? or should i still fold and pick better opportunity?

semibluff

the buy in was higher than any weekly one in dublin ( i dont think the buy in should matter though)



more opinions please

Gholi elaborate on merits of both if you would

Also to others, if your decision involves seeing a flop, what is my course of action from there?

jimmii

I think your goind to be up against different ranges depending on the level so buy in should be taken into consideration. People are re-raising with different ranges in a €30 pub game than in a €500 casino game.

I think its deep enough to call and then see what the flop brings but you can't get too tricky after that you really need to decide whether you are ahead or behind and be hyper aggressive with it.

Folding makes the hand nice and easy and you should be able to find easier positions to pick up chips than this.

Raise if you think he is raising you light and is only calling you with a narrow range.

What has he actually done while talking to you to believe he is actually very strong. I think going with your reads is a good thing to get used to live so if you think he is strong raising seems the worst option. If your fairly sure of the range calling and looking at the flop looks the best option.

NickyOD

semibluff wrote:

Speech play ensues which leads me to believe he is strong - ie 99+ or AJ+

That's not very strong, and if it's his range then you should push, but your read is probably way off IMO. His range is more likely to be TT-AA, AK and sometimes AQ.

I would fold becuase you don't seem to really know where you're at in the hand and there aren't many flops that will change that.

semibluff

NickyOD wrote:

That's not very strong, and if it's his range then you should push, but your read is probably way off IMO. His range is more likely to be TT-AA, AK and sometimes AQ.

I would fold becuase you don't seem to really know where you're at in the hand and there aren't many flops that will change that.

My ranger being way off?? 1010+ and 99+ arent really that diff, prob rule out AJ so ur assumption of AQ plus is correct. I was saying this is the minimum he had - and you seemed to agree! Our range only varied by 2 hands, and these two hands are added at a push

so considering the range you believe nicky, and that im miles away from
whats your action now??

I later asked how do we act if we think he is on Ak or an overpair . . .

semibluff

more opinions please

Goodluck2me

semibluff wrote:

more opinions please

the tone of your previous post may have put that poster and subsequent posters off?

Hectorjelly

Personally I wouldnt fold here because of the last few hands

Goodluck2me

Hectorjelly wrote:

Personally I wouldnt fold here because of the last few hands

you would push/call/raise?

Hectorjelly

goodluck2me wrote:

you would push/call/raise?

Call given the stack sizes

bops

forget about coinflips for a minute...

say he has 88 99 TT - i'd repop you with these here if i was him - you have him crushed

say he has QQ KK AA - i'd do the same here - he has you crushed

if you push here he'll probably only call with the one's that crush you so my my reckoning its a fold

also showing the folded JJ will probably be good for your image at the table

it's not costing you much to fold, but it could cost you everything to continue

(i hate JJ)

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

BarrierReef

Interesting Hand, I'd say we have all been here before.

I don't really think folding here is the correct play. Due to the fact that you have been so active recently, the range a good player will play back at you is quite large.

Here you actually have a strong hand ( Although I hate JJ aswell. ) I would consider the raise for a moment... make the call and check in the dark. ( Not a move to use too often in tournaments but in this spot, might give you a reasonable chance to get a read, and take position )

busted flush

it's not costing you much to fold, but it could cost you everything to continue

(i hate JJ)[/QUOTE]

very well said and i agree however i probally push here and take my chances! im either dominating or dominated if im the latter im in great shape to push on if not im in great shape to play cash!

semibluff

Thanks for all replies so far,

The reason i gave so little info about the hand was because that info was pretty much all i had to make my decision on, apart from the reads i picked up on. Personally as a player i depend and trust my ability to pick up on a read alot, and having "grilled" him heads up before i made my decision i was confident that he held an over pair.
I was thinking that his raise was too small to hold 99 or 10 10, as it was effectively a min raise. Also i dont think anyone plays AK never mind AQ this way, he was a tight player who although could have perceived me as weak, would not have wanted me in a hand when he only held AK (all my own assumptions but i was happy enough to go with these). When you couple that with his body language and speech play i think he had an overpair

What hand had he that he didnt mind on the flop, more than likely i thought AA, and perhaps KK

So whats my action now? i planned on flat calling (our stacks are deep enough) and if i hit my J, i would bet out and expect him to re-raise me all in. otherwise i was willing to just check fold, and get him at another stage. Opinions???

Now my next question is . . . Flop QJ6

I bet 3k

He flat calls . . .

Whats my action now?

(one boards poster knows the outcome of this hand, so if you rem please keep stum)

Comments on my next action, and how it was played to this point all welcome

Marq

your action now is wait for the dealer to put up the turn, and then ask us what you should do.

Preflop I would flat call or fold, never re-raise, and probably flat call because you've been so active recently.

Flop is ok if you really did put him on KK or AA like you said. If you think that AK or TT are realistically part of his range you could check to get him to put more money in the pot with a hand that wouldn't call a bet.

His flop call is really interesting. he's leaving 8k behind with 13k in the pot. If you bet again you're committed to the pot. I reckon he's flopped a set too, with queens being much more likely than sixes. Having said that I'd go broke here every time.

semibluff

Turn a blank, 3h

What did he flat call with? why? whats my action on turn?

Marq

I bet somewhere between 3k and my stack.

I very much doubt he flat calls with AQ, KK or AA here. Like I said he could have a set of queens or sixes. Or TT hoping to get to a showdown. Or AK hoping to get lucky if he's really bad.

semibluff

Marq wrote:

I bet somewhere between 3k and my stack.

I very much doubt he flat calls with AQ, KK or AA here. Like I said he could have a set of queens or sixes. Or TT hoping to get to a showdown. Or AK hoping to get lucky if he's really bad.

He doesnt have 66 or 1010, his pre flop was looking for a caller - it didnt look like he ever wanted me to fold, and although i coud be loose with two overs i think he jumps ship with 1010

Dont think he's bad enough to have AK.

Marq

So you're saying he either has AA, KK or QQ, and he didn't raise the flop.
Oh well, hope there were cash games.

semibluff

Marq wrote:

So you're saying he either has AA, KK or QQ, and he didn't raise the flop.
Oh well, hope there were cash games.

80% sure

very badly played AQ is also a possibility

slegs

All three likely hands AA, KK, QQ flat call here so you cant avoid going broke to the QQ right? AQ doesnt play like that preflop and I dont think he calls the flop with 1010 or 99 considering the pf action (maybe I am giving too much credit here?)

Rnger

i prefer a crai on the flop as you want your stack in the middle asap. You have 10kish on the flop and the pot is 7k. I imagine he will bet anywhere between 3-7k so he will be getting decent odds to call your push

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Wombatman

semibluff wrote:

and having "grilled" him heads up before i made my decision i was confident that he held an over pair.

In this case preflop call is not good IMO.

ditpoker

lol @ lloyd's current location!!

ditpoker

and i dont know why donal doesnt think i know what happened!

semibluff

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Never, ever, never fold. .

Anyone else agree disagree with this?

as Slegs said, would AA and KK also flat call?

Hectorjelly

this hand, and thread is ridiculous from start to finish. First of all you ask what to do preflop, but you dont let us in on the read that he had an overpair. You also say he cant have "just AK", AK is generlly considered the third best hand in hold em. Also you say he might have a badly played AQ, in fact AQ would of been perfectly played up until this point. Then to cap it all off you flop the second nuts and ask us what to do on the turn when the pot is bigger than either stack.

ianmc38

If he shows you QQ it's still a tough fold.

charlesanto

Hectorjelly wrote:

...thread is ridiculous ....

Agreed, seems to be some kind of brag thread about the OP's ability to make great reads and play the hand perfectly .....

BuChan

ianmc38 wrote:

If he shows you QQ it's still a tough fold.

jbravado

charlesanto wrote:

Agreed, seems to be some kind of brag thread about the OP's ability to make great reads and play the hand perfectly .....

WTF?
Appears to be a genuine post looking for advice to me.

semibluff

Hectorjelly wrote:

this hand, and thread is ridiculous from start to finish. First of all you ask what to do preflop, but you dont let us in on the read that he had an overpair. You also say he cant have "just AK", AK is generlly considered the third best hand in hold em. Also you say he might have a badly played AQ, in fact AQ would of been perfectly played up until this point. Then to cap it all off you flop the second nuts and ask us what to do on the turn when the pot is bigger than either stack.

Initially i asked so as to see what the best decision would be without entering in the factor of a read.

Given my read i now ask what is the correct action

"just AK" i dont think this rock is confident enough to want to price me in with AK (instead of perhaps raising more and taking it down) hence thinking it is stronger

On the flop as he flat calls, i Think it looks alot like QQ, or perhaps AQ?!?!/AA, i dont think KK would flat call giving me a free card incase i had an ace.

So the final Q i asked was, if it looks blatantly like he holds QQ, do we ever check fold.

HJ appreciate your opinion, so please feel free to offer it, but apoligies if i did not make my questions more clear.


LOL at a brag post

58o

semibluff wrote:

Initially i asked so as to see what the best decision would be without entering in the factor of a read.

Given my read i now ask what is the correct action

"just AK" i dont think this rock is confident enough to want to price me in with AK (instead of perhaps raising more and taking it down) hence thinking it is stronger

On the flop as he flat calls, i Think it looks alot like QQ, or perhaps AQ?!?!/AA, i dont think KK would flat call giving me a free card incase i had an ace.

So the final Q i asked was, if it looks blatantly like he holds QQ, do we ever check fold.

HJ appreciate your opinion, so please feel free to offer it, but apoligies if i did not make my questions more clear.


LOL at a brag post

Iwould be an insane laydown if you were right, but I'll never ever get away from this. You have a set! AA is just as likely as QQ here imo, if he has QQ i go broke here everytime . I'm impressed you thought about it as much though, usually when i flop a set my brain shuts down and i try and shovel all my chips into the middle as fast as i can!

ianmc38

58o wrote:

Iwould be an insane laydown if you were right, but I'll never ever get away from this. You have a set! AA is just as likely as QQ here imo, if he has QQ i go broke here everytime . I'm impressed you thought about it as much though, usually when i flop a set my brain shuts down and i try and shovel all my chips into the middle as fast as i can!

Unfortunately I do the same thing in omaha.

Mr.Plough

ugh, horrible spot.

your going to be in a terrible spot oop if you dont hit the flop so i fold pf considering stacks oop

mdwexford

it would be a ridiculous fold to muck J-J here, he would have played K-K or A-A the exact same way so it cant look blatantly like he has the only possible hand you are behind to.

if you were so sure he had an overpair i prefer a crai on the flop rather than leading out as you are likely to stack him right there. as played i check the turn and if he checks back shove the river.

NickyOD

semibluff wrote:

My ranger being way off?? 1010+ and 99+ arent really that diff, prob rule out AJ so ur assumption of AQ plus is correct. I was saying this is the minimum he had - and you seemed to agree! Our range only varied by 2 hands, and these two hands are added at a push

so considering the range you believe nicky, and that im miles away from
whats your action now??

I later asked how do we act if we think he is on Ak or an overpair . . .

Think again. Your original range includes 22 different hand combinations that cause a swing of 6% in your hands favour.

99+,AJs+,AJo+ : 47.75%
JJ : 52.25%

TT+,AQs+,AQo+ : 53.13%
JJ : 46.87%