Assumption On the All In Move

dvdfan

A couple of assumptions i want to run by people. Basically i notice at the lower levels that weaker/bad players tend to push all in more often than not with big hands wheras better players more often than not will push with draws. Is that assumption correct?

I just find that when i have a good draw and i think ive good folding equity i like to push, i think he maybe on Top Pair but obviously cant be sure and if i push i still have outs but id usually only do it if the pots big enough for it to be worth it. For example heres a hand i played against a player, he was limping way too much maybe 55/12 and stood out as a bad player to me but nothing to suggest hes a calling station yet although hes a bit tilty

Seat 1: bigfish5000 ($32.95)
Seat 5: dvdfan ($26.70)

Dealt to dvdfan [5h Jh] IN BB
bigfish5000 calls $0.25
ShaveMeShamrock checks

*** FLOP *** [8c 6h Th]

ShaveMeShamrock bets $0.60
bigfish5000 raises to $2.40
ShaveMeShamrock calls $1.80

*** TURN *** [8c 6h Th] [Qc]
ShaveMeShamrock checks
bigfish5000 bets $5.40
dvdfan raises to $24.05, and is all in

Ok so i put him on a pair but now its likely with the Q that he only has middle pair, theres $10 in the pot, i dont want to be calling down that raise on the turn so i push, however if i had 66 here i would probably either call or check/raise him here depending on wheter i taught he was on a draw or not.

Do you think this will make my plays transparent as in when im pushing someone might be able to put me on draws easily depending on board texture and call me with Top Pair too often. How do you mix it up, maybe its not even worth it at the level im playing .10/.25 but id still like to hear how people treat this situations not to have them appear too transparent.

Sirtoyou

I think one of the most deceptive plays is to lead with your monster hands
you might not get action but when u do go to showdown it create lots of fe
when u do the same with ur big draws/semi bluffs.

Sir

dvdfan

I do usually lead with missed flops, draws and big hands which makes it hard for someone to put me on a hand until the turn or river but im more on about wheter i should be pushing in the above situation with the FD, will a half decent player see through me if i do it too often with draws and less often with decent hands if not at this level then at slightly higher levels

Sirtoyou

pushing here is probably better than calling because your going to take a stab at
it on the river any way even if you miss.push gives the extra out of fold equity.

Sir

Mr.Plough

ugh. i don't like it.

at micro stakes hes probably not even thinking about what kind of hand you have. hes just happy to bet/call with his k10 or whatever.

id probaby just c/fold the turn.

dont bluff donks

Primewise

A bit of maths on this…

Say the pot is €100, your opponent bets €70. You go all in for €300.

Assume opponent folds 50% of the time, and he calls 50% of the time (a big assumption… obviously its situation dependant..)

If he calls, you have roughly a 20% chance to hit your flush on the river.

There are three outcomes:

1) He folds, you are up €170 - happens 50% of the time
2) He calls, you miss and are down €300 - happens 40% of the time
3) He calls, you hit and are up €400 - happens 10% of the time

Your average expected value is therefore (50%x170)-(40%x300)+(10%x400) = + €5 … not great!!!

So basically if you make this play all the time you will roughly break even


This play would only be worthwhile if I thought there was a high chance opponent would fold (for example in the later stages of a tournament)

You’ll also have a higher chance of hitting the flush if you make the play on the flop rather than missing on the turn and then going all-in.

Marq

At .10/.25, as far as your opponents are concerned, you are not holding any cards.

luckylucky

I haven't quite woken up yet but one of the first things I noticed was you called a decent raise out of position on the flop with only a jack hi flush draw. This call imo has got to be wrong nearly all the time, unless your opponent is a complete muppet who will not fold any sort of hand if you manage to hit your flush.

Anyway guess that's not your question. I agree with the don't bluff donks line.

Primewise

absolutely.... I think the donks - when they do make money - make it by calling good players who tend to bluff

dvdfan

Ok Thanks, especially for the ev calculations primewise that makes it alot clearer to understand and i guess i shouldnt be chasing draws as i no its not worth it. I stacked this lad 3 times alone, this being the first time when he called on that board with KTo, he was just terrible and he went on major tilt after this abusing me for being a fish etc so it would defo be proitable to chase certain draws against him but i didnt know that at the time.

My question though was more on should i be worried wheter someone will notice im making an all in play more often than not with draws and i guess from the repsonses that they wont at this level so i wont worry about it till i move to higher levels. My example wasnt great but if i always pushed all in with Nuts flush straight draw and rarely did with a made hand would people notice and should i vary it up, i guess theres no need at this level.

Ive actually started to run very good:eek: eventually so i just like to post a few hands or questions after each session so i can nip any flaws in the bud. Thanks very helpful

bubbleking

Mr.Plough wrote:

dont bluff donks

the day i actually beat this into my thick head is the day il improve 500%

luckylucky

Primewise nice calculations, but you left something out.

4) He calls, you hit and he hits a better hand and are down €300 - happens x% of the time

It doesn't happen often but it's not irrelevant.

Scouser in Dub

I was getting a headache reading the bettingh till I realised that the OP had left in his screenname in many of the streets actions

you may want to change

dvdfan

Scouser in Dub wrote:

I was getting a headache reading the bettingh till I realised that the OP had left in his screenname in many of the streets actions

you may want to change

Thanks Scouse, but i dont think too many people from boards will be following me around the 25 nl games on Full Tilt No matter how bad i am:D

Primewise

Yep, your right Lucky.

If the Queen of hearts or 8 Hearts falls he could fill up to a full house. He could also be drawing to a higher flush.

Its also possible he's a donkey and will call you with straight draw, or lower flush draw (or both), he misses and you win with Jack high.


lots of possibilities!