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AAPL - Apple Corp.

  • 09-05-2007 12:19am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭ techguy


    Hi,
    What do others think of Apple as an investment.. I was just casually saying to my dad about 2 months ago that they were beginning to be innovative with their set top boxes and other gadgets and that they might be worth a punt... That was at $85, now they have been tipping above the $100 dollar point..

    Oh Hindsight!!:o


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 931 PH4T


    techguy wrote:
    Hi,
    What do others think of Apple as an investment.. I was just casually saying to my dad about 2 months ago that they were beginning to be innovative with their set top boxes and other gadgets and that they might be worth a punt... That was at $85, now they have been tipping above the $100 dollar point..

    Oh Hindsight!!:o

    I said the same thing when I got my first iPod 5 years ago :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭ techguy


    I take it your doing pretty well so yes???


  • Registered Users Posts: 256 ✭✭ patto_chan


    AAPL currently trades at a P/E of 34:1 and they don't pay dividends I think.
    By some peoples standards not a good value investment.

    About 10 years ago Apple were not in good shape and were widely expected to go out of business or be bought out. I remember seeing their share price at the time of about $13 and wondering 'should I??".
    Alas I didn't.
    Pity, because after two 2 to 1 stock splits since then one of those $13 shares would be worth four $108 shares today.
    Oh well.:rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22 ✭✭✭ Nytfevr


    Does anyone think that Apples share is overvalued? They are currently at an all time high, nearly double their value last year however there hasn't been a huge amount of innovation in the mean time. The iPhone isn't going to be released in the states until late summer and europe in autumn. The cost of the phone is in the region of $500 on a bill phone contract, $100 more for the 8GB model. The phone is competing with phones that are even at the moment technically better (Nokias N95, etc) and i'm sure that all the mobile phone manufacturers will be making even better phones come June/July. Apples strongest card with this product is its user friendly user interface. It seems that this is apples flagship product and the speculation of the iphone is very much built into the apple share price, simular to what happened when amstrad launched its e-mailer product a few years ago. Will we see the apple share tumble when the iPhone is released? The other product that apple has launched is the Apple TV which has good initial sales however without a price cut (currently $300) sales will decrease. Unmodified it will only play iTunes content, much like the original apple ipod that only worked on macs and only supported aac. Is apple a share to sell?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22 ✭✭✭ Nytfevr


    Having said all this most analysts reckon Apple is a solid buy with targets as hopefull as $145 (Bear Stearns, Amer. Technology Research)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭ PDelux


    Did you see what happened yesterday to the AAPL share price?
    A website called Engadget posted a story just before midday saying that the iphone would be seriously delayed. The price dropped from about $107 to about $103 in minutes.... then they realised it was a hoax and jumped right back up :) funny stuff.


  • Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭ Sonderval


    Ive seen that drop effect before, at the January unveiling of the iphone. A typo in the transcript online lead to people selling like crazy, only for it to jump back up withing minutes. Hilarious stuff - really shows what drives the market :)

    With regards the iPhone and AAPL's continued stock price growth, I don't expect a downturn anytime soon. Most people who have dealt with the iPhone have given it the thumbs up and the AAPL brand is very powerful - I believe they will sell quite well, thought perhaps not as well as many analysts predict. There will be a "time to market" effect before the mass consumer begins widescale adoption, similar to the iPod. Alot of the buying activity at the moment is people getting in before iPhone is released. Most people are expecting a good 3rd quarter report considering the continuing strength of Mac sales (even with the impending Leopard release) and factoring in the iTV sales, which were absent in the 2nd quarter.

    On the iphone itself, I believe AAPL have been very clever in its design - moreso then many other mobile devices, it lends itself well to integration with existing products (AAPL products, obviously). It is also not heavily network dependant - the core services do not require any gimmicky new telecoms tech. Such tech is already well established (itunes store, web surfing, etc). I suspect the per-unit profit is quite strong.

    BTW, big AAPL follower here. Have owned stock since last July (bought in at the 54 range, sold at 68. Been back in since 85 and loving the action so far). I am inclined to hold until January 2008 and the earnings run-up then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭ PDelux


    There's a better explanation of how it happened here:
    http://www.engadget.com/2007/05/17/regarding-yesterdays-apple-news/


  • Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭ Sonderval


    Man, thats as dodgy as hell. They really shouldn't have ran with that off the bat. Only an idiot would be unaware of the potential market fall out.

    I'm sure there were many happy buyers during that dip...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭ techguy


    Do you guys think it's too late to jump on the band wagon with a couple of €K or is there still plenty more left..I'm thinking long term anyway.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22 ✭✭✭ Nytfevr


    If you're thinking long term, then CRH is your man. I'd see apples stock climbing throughout the next month with the impending release of the iPhone obviously the big question is what will happen the stock the day it's released. They also updated their laptop range in the last week. Most analysts have them down as a buy with a target of around $130 if you're looking for a quick return it may be worth throwing in some money in and getting out as soon as these targets are met. Bearing in mind that apple is at an all time high long term investors in the company may be looking to cash in their shares.

    Ps re Engadget, as a loyal follower of it, the site is generally fairly reputable although sometimes it seems as if engadget doesn't know how large it's blog has grown and how highly influential it is - it's one of the most visited sites on the net despite being only 3years old, even B Gates reads it daily!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭ techguy


    I have CRH in the pipeline too..I think i'll hold tough.And not buy in..I mean look at nokia back around the year 2000!! I can't afford that to happen me..As my father says its the greedy that buy on the way up and the clever that buy on the way..I think i've missed the boat with apple so I think i'll just sit back and see what happens from it..I think CRH for the moment..


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭ Fidelis


    Hi techguy,

    Out of interest, who do you buy/sell your stocks with? Your bank, Goodbodys?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,034 ✭✭✭ mollser


    Fidelis wrote:
    Hi techguy,

    Out of interest, who do you buy/sell your stocks with? Your bank, Goodbodys?

    And also how have you managed FX risk here - I'd imagine that the $/€ movement has zapped a lot of those gains??


  • Registered Users Posts: 291 ✭✭ Sonderval


    If you going to be investing primarily in US markets, I'd be inclined to push people to get a US trading account. I personally use Firstrade, have found them excellent. Only 6 dollars per transaction - compared to the absolute rip off of Irish stockbrokers.

    Once you've set up your account, wire your funds across and start trading :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 344 ✭✭ scoot on


    A lot of analysts have been speculating that the Apple shares are over valued for the simple reason that the ipod market has to become saturated soon. This doesn't seem to be happening though and quarter after quarter they are reaching record ipod sales.

    Also, the mac seems to be gaining market share aswell. Which has to be good news from an investors point of view as it means that they don't have all their eggs in one basket with the ipod.

    I think it's a good buy but that's only my opinion.

    I've seen you guys mention crh. Do you reckon that's a good bet to get into? A friend of mine who works there was telling me to do this a few months ago but I didn't really do anything about it at the time. Are you guys talking long term or short term?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22 ✭✭✭ Nytfevr


    CRH = Long Term, not a good bet an excellent one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,766 hamster


    Nytfevr wrote:
    CRH = Long Term, not a good bet an excellent one.

    Can't agree more than that! I invested in CRH in Jan 2003... and it has performed very well - consistently and optionally you can go for dividends in shares. Having said that most Irish stocks have done well since March 2003.

    20070602_crh.png

    But honestly though, I take the approach of taking 10-12 irish shares (with international exposure) and holding them long term. I complement with a european low cost unit tracker.

    I got crh at €11.95 and now trades at €37.50 with a rise of 1.50 last friday. That's almost a 10% rise in one day if I based the rise on the original price. It's true what they say about compounding returns! But honestly, hold for long term in a mix and ride out the bad times. Even at €37.50 it's earnings underline it's value. Once a share maintains it's value compared to its peers and is well managed there is nothing to fear about the downturns. Although any share can go bad, once you got a mix you can't do worse than average.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭✭ Johnee


    At the risk of moving off-topic, Im curious about the glowing, cast-iron recommendations for CRH. Why are you guys so keen on it? As a complete novice, Id have two dumb questions
    - if its risen so high already, does that not means its less likely to rise in future than formerly?
    - as a building company, is it not at risk of any slowdown in construction?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,766 hamster


    Johnee wrote:
    At the risk of moving off-topic, Im curious about the glowing, cast-iron recommendations for CRH. Why are you guys so keen on it? As a complete novice, Id have two dumb questions
    - if its risen so high already, does that not means its less likely to rise in future than formerly?
    - as a building company, is it not at risk of any slowdown in construction?

    I would never recommend buying a single share or based on it's current price. You'd be better off a selection of shares. CRH is just an example how it has rewarded in the past (and how it may or may not in future). My take on it - is that I have it as a long term hold for another 10 yrs+ so I'd don't mind it going down/up even with that nice gain -

    research wise -
    i) it's a well managed company - ie track record (but good can go bad hence a portfolio).
    ii) It's tradable in € - less currency risk.
    iii) It's balanced in diversification - 50-50 Euro/US and holdings in Asia
    iv) It's on a comfortable pe compared to it's peers
    v) It pays dividends in shares/cash.
    vi) Construction of housing is only a part of it's business. It's main business is aggreates.. such as stone, cements and road building.

    I think it's an example of a good share you could have in a portfolio. Not the only one - or specific one... just an example. There is worse out there - ie, I would be nervous about Pharma companies for example - one trick ponies like Elan that could do well but 1 drug product dominates its share price while others would more balanced and so on.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22 ✭✭✭ Nytfevr


    Johnee you're dead right to say what you said and there's some truth in the saying, "buy on the rumour, sell on the fact". CRH isn't so much a building company per se, where the money is going to be coming in is that it is a major supplier of the worlds cement, If Irelands building boom bubble pops, it won't have any drastic effect on CRH, however you are wise to ask such questions, it's very important that you know exactly what you're investing in, and why that any certain stock will make a good return.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭ techguy


    What do you guys make of AAPL now eh?? I'm reading on various pages about different brokers raising targets to above the $200 mark.. I am thinking of putting on a bit of a spread bet on the new paddy power service..what do ye think??


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,466 ✭✭✭ flexcon


    techguy wrote: »
    What do you guys make of AAPL now eh?? I'm reading on various pages about different brokers raising targets to above the $200 mark.. I am thinking of putting on a bit of a spread bet on the new paddy power service..what do ye think??

    How did that bet work out for you? :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 959 ✭✭✭ Rulmeq


    flexcon wrote: »
    How did that bet work out for you? :cool:
    Exceptionally well, you do know that $200 price was pre-split (A 7 to 1 split), today's price of $148 is equivalent to a pre-split price of $1000.


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