How will Sinn Féin vote in the new Dail?

PH01

Anyone know how Sinn Fein will vote in the next Dail?

It's forcased that they'll win 8 to 10 seats they're gonna have a pretty big say on who's going to be the next Taoiseach.
So who can you see them voting for?
Kenny? Don't think so.
Bertie? Likely.
Abstaining? Most likely.

What do you say.

DMC

Well, if they get that number of seats, they will not have to approach the independents or others smaller parties to share speaking time.

brianthebard

Lolz, SF are the one's forcasting 8-10 seats. Personally I don't believe they'll get that many. They'll vote FF though, they want to get into the good books and will be hoping to muscle in on the PD's space.

yomchi

Its hard to say at the moment who they will endorse. However I would imagine they will vote for a candidate who would be good to work with in order to advance their strategic objectives relevant to the national question.

Voipjunkie

brianthebard wrote:

Lolz, SF are the one's forcasting 8-10 seats. Personally I don't believe they'll get that many. They'll vote FF though, they want to get into the good books and will be hoping to muscle in on the PD's space.

RTE are actually predicting them getting around 10

The 5 they have

and Dublin NE
Dublin NW
Dublin Central
Donegal NE
Donegal SW

And they seem to be in with a good shout in those 5

Larry O'Toole took 4500 votes in the Local elections and Killian Forde took 3500 which if repeated gives them 8000 which is only a little shy of a Quota in 2002
Dessie Ellis is the same between his vote in Finglas and the vote in Ballymun they had nearly 8000 which is vitually a Quota

SF were only 6 votes behind in 2002 in Dublin central and FF are running 3 candidates this time and McDonald probably has more appeal outside the traditional SF vote in that constituency

In Donegal SW Pearse Doherty has a high profile and SF say that he polled 12,000 votes from Donegal in the Euros so there should be a SF seat there for him

In Donegal NE with Blaney now back in the FF camp it seems unlikely that they can hold 3 out of 3 Padraig MacLochlainn is polling well and should benefit from the republican vote that went to Blaney formerly.


If all of those pan out then it would be 10 and then there are the outside possibilities like McManus and O'Reilly
Personally I think they will be lucky to get 8 but it is not just SF talking themselves up

yomchi

Yes there are ten solid seats being forcast from within SF too

Judt

Of course it's not this election that matters for SF. It's the next one. If they sit out an entire Dail in opposition with ten seats... Well, coalition parties have been made of less. The past is like a foreign country, someone said of NI today; they do things differently there. Same will be for Irish politics in two, three, four years time.

PH01

Judt wrote:

Of course it's not this election that matters for SF. It's the next one. If they sit out an entire Dail in opposition with ten seats... Well, coalition parties have been made of less. The past is like a foreign country, someone said of NI today; they do things differently there. Same will be for Irish politics in two, three, four years time.

Indeed.
Was it Vincent Browne who said that it would be 2012 (5 years from now) before we'd see SF in Government.

nollaig

I dont know much about polictics so apologies if this is a stupid question.

Sinn Fein are in power in the North, If they get into government in the South, Wont we have a United Ireland (If you look at it a certain way)

Chakar

nollaig wrote:

I dont know much about polictics so apologies if this is a stupid question.

Sinn Fein are in power in the North, If they get into government in the South, Wont we have a United Ireland (If you look at it a certain way)

No. If you want to know why, look at the Unionist community in Northern Ireland. The leading party in the Executive is the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by The Rev Dr Ian Paisley.

The Executive also has the principle of consociationalism.

marco murphy

brianthebard wrote:

Lolz, SF are the one's forcasting 8-10 seats. Personally I don't believe they'll get that many. They'll vote FF though, they want to get into the good books and will be hoping to muscle in on the PD's space.

Yes, and that based on a very sophisticated register that gives statistics on how things are looking. Not only that but every national newspaper is forecasting such.