10/20 Ipoker OESD

dvdfan

Green Joke Poker Greenland (Beginner) 0.10/0.20, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop|saw showdown

8 (Button) mondeo500 ($47.79)
10 meyhoff ($10.95)
3 Katkaspb ($39.55)
6 ShaveMeShamrock ($23.45)

Preflop: ShaveMeShamrock is in seat 6 with A J
ShaveMeShamrock raises to 1, mondeo500 calls 1, 2 folds.

Flop (2.30) Q 9 T
ShaveMeShamrock bets 2, mondeo500 raises to 4, ShaveMeShamrock calls 2.

Turn (10.30) 2
ShaveMeShamrock checks, mondeo500 bets 4, ShaveMeShamrock???

Villain is 70/30/1.2 he min raised me a couple of times already but folded to the RR, he also min raised another guy and showed down middle pair so i wasnt too worried about the flop re-raise, but i didnt want to RR him as hes folded to my RR a couple of times and at worst ill get a free card as hes usually passive when hes CR dosent work. Could/Should i have played it different and what do we do now on the turn??

The Sheriff 101

Its a call for me as i think were getting the right odds

If he is a 70/30 i think it is safe to assume he would raise with AQ/A10 on the button so me thinks our A is live alot of the time here.
Although his Agg factor is only 1.2 and he has bet again on turn something you say he has not been doing if his check raise has not worked.

likely to be 2 pair but i still think its a call.


"but i didnt want to RR him as hes folded to my RR a couple of times"

We want him to fold dont we? we dont have a made hand and its not very likely to get paid if we hit.

PS if anyone spots any flaws in my thinking id be grateful if you would point it out

Rb

edit: Didn't read that properly - flat call

dvdfan

The Sheriff 101 wrote:

We want him to fold dont we? we dont have a made hand and its not very likely to get paid if we hit.

I think your right here, on the flop his min raises reaks of the usual weakness and yet i want to keep him in the hand without a made hand. If he has a weak hand now hes unlikely to pay my hand off if i do hit as you said.

But when he bets that turn aswell its likely he has a hand and likely i might get paid off. I would need to get all hes stack in for the move to be +ev here though so is it worth it?

sikes

The Sheriff 101 wrote:

We want him to fold dont we? we dont have a made hand and its not very likely to get paid if we hit.

with a mainiac like that our folding equity goes way down if we have raised a lot becuase players, especially at these stakes, get too emotional and do non rational things.

call, you dont need him to pay you much on the river for it to be break even and most players like this will pay a big bet on the river with sets and 2 pairs that it offsets the times that we run into KJ

dvdfan

sikes wrote:

with a mainiac like that our folding equity goes way down if we have raised a lot becuase players, especially at these stakes, get too emotional and do non rational things.

call, you dont need him to pay you much on the river for it to be break even and most players like this will pay a big bet on the river with sets and 2 pairs that it offsets the times that we run into KJ

You say i dont need much on the river to break even, am i calculating this situations wrong? This is the way i was doing it.

He raised 4 on the river, i was 5/1 to hit my OESD, i would need to be calling that 4 hoping to win 20 euros for it to be breakeven. I only had $23 total stack so i would have to get most of my stack in to win $20 from him

or should i be calculating $20 that i need to win from the pot because when the money goes into the pot its no longer mine and so with $14 in the pot when i make the call on the turn i just need to get another $6 in to make a $20 pot on the river??

sikes

money in the pot isnt yours. Each play should have had its own +EV, its unfortunate it hasnt worked so far, but we can still win it by ensuring all the money goes in good.

so the pot is 14 and we have to call 4. we are getting 3.5/1 so we are getting offered 22% when we are 18% to win. If he just calls 4 on the end then its break even. However, depending on the villain, he could even call a push.

dvdfan

sikes wrote:

money in the pot isnt yours. Each play should have had its own +EV, its unfortunate it hasnt worked so far, but we can still win it by ensuring all the money goes in good.

so the pot is 14 and we have to call 4. we are getting 3.5/1 so we are getting offered 22% when we are 18% to win. If he just calls 4 on the end then its break even. However, depending on the villain, he could even call a push.

Thanks Sikes, im not so good with % when im trying to work it out at the time so is the way i was saying correct if im trying to work it out, for eg

10 in the pot 4 to call, im 5/1 to hit my hand so i need to have 20 in the pot by the river to break even. Is this correct??

valor

call the turn , shove if you hit

sikes

dvdfan wrote:

Thanks Sikes, im not so good with % when im trying to work it out at the time so is the way i was saying correct if im trying to work it out, for eg

10 in the pot 4 to call, im 5/1 to hit my hand so i need to have 20 in the pot by the river to break even. Is this correct??

i find working with percentages to be so much easier for any type of calculation. In this case 3.5/1 pot odds is 22.22% thats gotten by

100/(3.5+1)

but yeah if the pot is 20 at the end then its break even.

We have less than a PSB on the end so a shove is the only option

dvdfan

K came on the river, i bet $10 and he RR me all in for another $4. He had the made straight on the flop with KJ and paid me off.