2x SF gains in Donegal SW & NE?

redspider

I've been doing a scan around the country at some of the various battles in the constituencies.

The two battles in Donegal SW (3 seats) and Donegal NE (3 seats) are intertesting.

A change in Donegal SW constituency may be on the cards. The SF candidate, Pearse Doherty, is a young chap and has been getting a lot of good press lately in the local media in Donegal seemingly and also in the national media. He has appeared and come across reasonably well on RTE and is seen more as flying the flag for Donegal issues than for SF only.

Paddypower.com now thinks he WILL get in:

Mary Coughlan TD - (FF) 1 - 25
Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher TD - (FF) 1 - 16
Pearse Doherty (SF) 1 - 8
Dinny McGinley TD - (FG) 5 - 4

It was 2xFF and 1xFG in the last election, so if this SF gain comes about, and the feeling on the ground is that it is now possible, it would be an FG loss. So, not a vote for a change in Government per se.

Donegal NE is similar, it looks like the SF candidate has a good shout there:

Cecelia Keaveney TD (FF) 1 - 8
Padraig MacLochlainn (SF) 1 - 4
James McDaid TD (FF) 4 - 11
Joe McHugh (FG) 4 - 7
Niall Blaney TD (FF) 7 - 4

That would come at the expense of Niall Blaney, so a loss for FF, as this constinuency was 3xFF at the last election. (Blaney was Independent FF but moved back into the fold since). McDaid is a 'colourful' character so how he will poll on the day may be less predictable than people think, I suspect.

Two SF gains would be quite a coup and a major change for Donegal and perhaps perceptions, as up to now it was seen as a major and safe FF stronghold, which it was.

Thoughts?

Redspider

ps: its good to look at individual constituencies, and add up the totals, rather than look at the national poll trends. I plan to look at some more as the day to the vote draws closer.

yomchi

yeh Pearse has been in with a shout from word go, the figures have him down to take a seat for sure.

flogen

redspider wrote:

ps: its good to look at individual constituencies, and add up the totals, rather than look at the national poll trends. I plan to look at some more as the day to the vote draws closer.

Yeah - I compiled a national result based on the constituency results available on Paddy Power - on IrishElection.com.

It'll likely change a fair bit in the last week (and I might return to it then), but it's interesting reading and shows a result that I don't think is too hard to believe.

marco murphy

I do hope Mr.Doherty gets in, he does a lot of 7 day weeks working hard.

JupiterKid

Whatever the electoral outcome in Donegal I would dearly love to see Mary Coughlan and Jim McDaid - both incredibly unpleasant, arrogant and smug politicans - lose their seats but I doubt that'll happen.

Why have Labour and FG such weak support in Donegal? It seems to me that FF have a virtual stranglehold on the county, with SF gaining some support.

Voipjunkie

flogen wrote:

Yeah - I compiled a national result based on the constituency results available on Paddy Power - on IrishElection.com.

It'll likely change a fair bit in the last week (and I might return to it then), but it's interesting reading and shows a result that I don't think is too hard to believe.

Yeah Flogen if that is how it turned out then the only real possible Government is a FF/Lab one

72 for FG/Lab/Greens is too short even with all the independents they would be 5 short and some of those independents would probably be FF gene pool

redspider

flogen wrote:

Yeah - I compiled a national result based on the constituency results available on Paddy Power - on IrishElection.com.

Good work. And interesting reading. Your 'reduced-in-size' Dail would have these changes:

Fianna Fail - 64 (-11)
Fine Gael - 42 (+14)
Labour - 19 (-1)
Sinn Fein - 10 (+5)
Green - 8 (+3)
Progressive Democrats - 3 (-5)
Socialist Party - 2 (+1)
Independent - 6 (-6)

Some interesting swings there. Its hard to believe that Labour would get no gain at all and would even lose one. I'm not saying that's not plausible, but it must ne worrying from a Labour point of view. FG are the biggest beneficiaries although no doubt most of that is their core vote coming back to the fold after the meltdown and no-show the last time.

Interesting to see the Green's getting less of a lift than SF. If the wipe-out of PD's did occur, I dont think there would be too many tears shed across the country.

A user called Simon on your blog comments, forecasted the other constituencies to produce these totals:
Fianna Fail - 70
Fine Gael - 46
Labour - 19
Sinn Fein - 10
Green - 9
Progressive Democrats - 3
Socialist Party - 2
Independent - 7

FG + Lab + GP = 74 and is 9 short of 83 seats.

We could see a hung dail and a minority short-lived government with another election in the autumn? Unless Labour go in with FF for a short while to 'run the country', but from their viewpoint, wouldnt that be folly and reduce their voting share even further?

The key to a FG/Lab/GP majority is whether Labour pick up more seats or not.

Of course, Paddypower could be wrong, and as pointed out elsewhere, some of these battles will come down to the wire and be marginal.

Its certainly a finely balanced battle ....

> Why have Labour and FG such weak support in Donegal?

Traditionally I think Donegal in both constituencies has been FF two thirds and FG one third. SF was seen as too radical to be taken seriously until lately as the support has grown gradually over the last decade or so. Labour were never very well organised in a county that had little to zero old industry. Like most constituencies, each has its own mix and does not reflect the country as a whole. Donegal, if reflected on a national basis, would have had a single party FF government with about 100 seats! But if the election pans out as 2x SF gains, it will see a re-colouring of the map up in that part of the country.

Redspider

Gobán Saor

flogen wrote:

Yeah - I compiled a national result based on the constituency results available on Paddy Power - on IrishElection.com.

First class piece of work - well done! It seems entirely credible and leads to a conclusion I've long suspected - the only viable coalition will be FF/Lab.

Also the fact that 4 of the 5 PD losses go to FG confirms another long held belief - namely that the PDs are spiritually closer to FG at heart rather than FF.

Stromecek

(Quote=redspider)SF was seen as too radical to be taken seriously until lately as the support has grown gradually over the last decade or so.

In the late 80's and 90'sDonegal NE was on the verge of electing Eddie Fullerton a Sinn Fein county councillor until he was murdered by loyalist paramilitaries with suspicions of collusion http://www.troopsoutmovement.com/eddiefullerton.htm is the only link I can find
His rise was based upon genuine hard work on behalf of the local community leading to such projects as the fullerton dam among others, of course his death set Sinn Fein back years and his successor Padraig MacLochlainn has built his support upon the same practises of community development and social change
he's a hard worker and genuine I hope he makes it in this time
as reguards Fianna Fails support here it seems based on family tradition Blaney of course was formerly RepublicanFF and, personalities alá McDaid and of course its small town Ireland what can I do for you policies

marco murphy

Through inexperience of elections on my part can someone outline how accurate the paddypower and media are at predicting who takes what seats...

muffler

Poblachtach wrote:

Through inexperience of elections on my part can someone outline how accurate the paddypower and media are at predicting who takes what seats...

Same idea as horse racing. They get fed info and stats and base their prices accordingly

muffler

We have a wee poll going for Donegal with some onteresting results - link

marco murphy

muffler wrote:

Same idea as horse racing. They get fed info and stats and base their prices accordingly

What I mean is, were national media predictions accurate the last election?
Can one rely on Opinion Poll results?

Voipjunkie

Poblachtach wrote:

What I mean is, were national media predictions accurate the last election?
Can one rely on Opinion Poll results?

Yes and No

There are always surprises like the Pds winning 8 seats when everyone tought they were ****ed
Or Paudge Connolly in Cavan Monaghan Cowley in Mayo or McElstrim in Kerry and Twomey in Wexford very few if anyone saw those coming.
No one predicted the complete melt down that FG suffered last time out either.

I presume you ask based on the likelyhood of SF winning all the seats they are tipped to win. They are definitely in with a shout but I think some people may be talking them up so when they do not achieve then any gains look like a failure.
On a really good day like they had in the LE in 2004 they could win 15 but I doubt that will happen 7 or 8 seems more realistic but thats the great thing about elections we wont know until they open the boxes.

marco murphy

Voipjunkie wrote:

Yes and No

There are always surprises like the Pds winning 8 seats when everyone tought they were ****ed
Or Paudge Connolly in Cavan Monaghan Cowley in Mayo or McElstrim in Kerry and Twomey in Wexford very few if anyone saw those coming.
No one predicted the complete melt down that FG suffered last time out either.

I presume you ask based on the likelyhood of SF winning all the seats they are tipped to win. They are definitely in with a shout but I think some people may be talking them up so when they do not achieve then any gains look like a failure.
On a really good day like they had in the LE in 2004 they could win 15 but I doubt that will happen 7 or 8 seems more realistic but thats the great thing about elections we wont know until they open the boxes.

Thanks

redspider

I've revisited these constituencies on Paddypower.com and they are offering different odds for Donegal SW as follows:

*Mary Coughlan (FF) 1 - 25
*Dinny McGinley (FG) 1 - 5
*Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher (FF) 1 - 5
Pearse Doherty (SF) 8 - 15

They had:
*Mary Coughlan TD - (FF) 1 - 25
*Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher TD - (FF) 1 - 16
Pearse Doherty (SF) 1 - 8
*Dinny McGinley TD - (FG) 5 - 4

which meant an SF gain and an FG loss. They now expect it to be 'as you were' as in 2xFF and 1xFG.

edit
Donegal NE is open again, and has a similar 'adjustment', now its:

*James McDaid (FF) 1 - 8
*Cecelia Keaveney (FF) 1 - 5
Joe McHugh (FG) 1 - 5
Padraig MacLochlainn (SF) 1 - 2
*Niall Blaney (FF) 11 - 8

which would mean an FF loss and an FG gain, not an SF gain.

So overall, now the 'expectation' by PP is for no SF gains in Donegal at all. Thats a change.

In terms of the question raised, neither opinion polls (as they are not comprehensive enough and will always have a margin of error, the national one is +/-4%!) nor betting odds can predict the election.

In such a closely fought election as this one seems to be, who knows what will happen and a handful of votes here and there can swing a seat and potentially swing the government. Even the weather on the day may have an affect as bad weather tends to keep some voters away.

The most important thing is to vote and vote 'often' (ie: use your 1,2,3 all the way down the list, just in case).

2 days to go ....

Redspider

muffler

In the 2 Donegal constituencies I would be very surprised if Sinn Fein did not get at least 1 seat - most likely Pearse Doherty in the South West.

In the North east a lot will depend on Blaney's transfers whick McLaughlin will benefit from probably as much if not more than McDaid or Keaveny