Are Fine Gael Doomed

mountainyman

I was driving out to Tallaght today and I saw the cherubic Brian Hayes grinning down at me.

On my way home Alan Shatter minimised his glower.

Now these guys are losers. They lost last time around. So why haven't Fine Gael thrown them away.

Every party depends on relationships but maybe Fine Gael just aren't ruthless enough to win.


MM

Badabing

I live in Tallaght and i cant stand Hayes, he lost out last time because he wasnt doing the work on the ground and i find him very smug.

gandalf

Dunno about Hayes but Shatter is a very capable politician and was a serious loss to the Dail last time especially when you look at the two FF politicians Brennen and Kitt who are both useless and the PD's O'Donnell who disappeared totally up until Harney stepped down as leader and suddenly reappeared on the scene.

RalphCifaretto

Badabing wrote:

I live in Tallaght and i cant stand Hayes, he lost out last time because he wasnt doing the work on the ground and i find him very smug.

Everyone fancies Hayes this time around, even FF fear he will take one of their seats. I don't see how myself, smug is exactly the word to describe him.

ballooba

FG Doomed? Things haven't been going so well for a long time.

Shatter is a star. I can't comment on Hayes as I am unfamiliar with him or his constituency.

gandalf

Is Harney based in Tallaght as well? If so what do you reckon her chances are?

Badabing

She's Dublin mid west and i think lives in Newcastle.

yomchi

yeh she's mid west.

Southwest sitting TD's - well sitting until saturday gone - are Sean Crowe, Charlie O'Connor, Conor Lenihan and Pat Rabbitte.

delta_bravo

Jon wrote:

yeh she's mid west.

Southwest sitting TD's - well sitting until saturday gone - are Sean Crowe, Charlie O'Connor, Conor Lenihan and Pat Rabbitte.

I think Conor Lenihan will be in danger of losing his seat. Crowe will storm the poll and Hayes seems to be gaining momentum

RalphCifaretto

Seems FF are worried about Lenihans seat. Paddy Power seem to think it's O Connor that's in trouble.

yomchi

delta_bravo wrote:

I think Conor Lenihan will be in danger of losing his seat. Crowe will storm the poll and Hayes seems to be gaining momentum

Yeh I was Crowes DOE in 2002. Pretty good machine they have out there!

delta_bravo

Jon wrote:

Yeh I was Crowes DOE in 2002. Pretty good machine they have out there!

He does well in large pockets of Tallaght and Bohernabreena but he gets little out near Templeogue and i hear he isnt popular in Kingswood. He will top the poll though

yomchi

we did ok in Kingswood and took just over 1000 out of Templeogue as far as I can remember. But yeh his bread and butter was jobstown, fettercairn, springfield etc.

Badabing

Lenihan and o'connor both got roughly 7000 first prefrences last time which was very good vote management so if they get their own vote out again its possible to keep hayes out again.

yomchi

i'd rather see Hayes out. O'Connor was a sound fella on the canvass. Lenihan was a smarmy ass no all who was as shallow as a puddle

delta_bravo

Jon wrote:

i'd rather see Hayes out. O'Connor was a sound fella on the canvass. Lenihan was a smarmy ass no all who was as shallow as a puddle

Yeh O'Connor seems to be a decent guy. Even though he is known as "Mr. Tallaght" I've seen him around my area a good few times. The thing I dont like about Hayes is that he is looking for the young votes on the basis that " the other candidates are old", ive heard him saying this to young voters. This seems pretty weak to me. Hayes might lose votes from Rabbite and this new candidate Davidson

yomchi

And remember Rabitte trailed home last time round, with his new found fame as Labour leader he should poll pretty well. I reckon Hayes is a no hoper, although I haven't been out there since 2002 so I don't know the lie of the land too well

I'm still wondering whether Shatter would actually be any good since he sent around his crappy 'Shatter has the X-Factor' pamphlet. Seriously. I've seen better in SU elections.

LostinBlanch

Well I'd love to see Lenihan out. I lost any (lingering) respect when I heard him pissed as a fart snoring just before an interview with RTE while he was on an FF pissup in the Slieve Russell in Cavan a couple of years ago.

tHE vAGGABOND

Shatter is an actual barrister, and has years and years of legal training and real world experience. Who bleedin cares what he looks like on a poster. Its people like him we need in the dail, writing and amending laws. People who have a clue about what is going on in the legal world..

I'm in Dublin South, but I did not vote for Shatter last time, for no real reason tbh. But he will be getting a 1 or 2 from me this time, as I think you need smart blokes like him in the dail to counter the Jackie Healy rae's of this world

mountainyman

Shatter is a solicitor. He is the country's main family law expert. But what I mean is if you lose you should be out.

brian hayes isn't my constituency.

MM

ballooba

mountainyman wrote:

Shatter is a solicitor. He is the country's main family law expert. But what I mean is if you lose you should be out.

TBH that's total cráp. People need a spell in the sin bins. The PDs will get one this time out.

Shatter didn't deserve one the last time IMO but he bore the brunt of people giving FG a kick up the hole.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

TBH that's total cráp. People need a spell in the sin bins. The PDs will get one this time out.

You're saying Liz O'Donnell won't get in, or are you talking in a national sense?

tHE vAGGABOND

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

Shatter is an actual barrister, and has years and years of legal training and real world experience.

Shatter is a Solicitor. Not sure that he is the 'main expert' on family law, but he has writen a textbook that is quite popular. Fine Gael have never entrusted him with a Ministerial post when in office.

Brian Lenihan, Michael McDowell and Barry Andrews are all Barristers. They'd be delighted with your ringing endorsement of the legal profession.

ballooba

Myth wrote:

You're saying Liz O'Donnell won't get in, or are you talking in a national sense?

National sense and with any luck the DSE sense.

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

Fine Gael have never entrusted him with a Ministerial post when in office.

That is because he broke the party line on hunting. Which shows a bit of backbone. I would expect he will be on the front bench this time round.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

That is because he broke the party line on hunting.

I'm geting that deja vu feeling. Have we had this argument before?

He wasn't appointed to Justice in the Fitzgerald administration. Noonan got it, even though he didn't have any seniority and no experience in law either.

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

Noonan got it, even though he didn't have any seniority and no experience in law either.

Shatter was thirty one. He wasn't as well known in the legal profession as he is now. He had only just been elected for the first time one year previously.

Noonan was thirty nine. He had been a Fine Gael councillor for 8 years.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

He had been a Fine Gael councillor for 8 years.

True, doubt that gives one a better insight into the legal profession than actually being a Solicitor. Both were elected to the Dail in 1981, Shatter had been a Solicitor for 5 years at that stage, 4 as a partner in his firm.

jdivision

Are FG doomed? Certainly not. Hayes is a bit smug but capable, Shatter a good politician and a sharp brain. Lenihan is a muppet, pure and simple. How he was made a minister before his brother is beyond me. I think he'll be out, fingers crossed.

ballooba

I take it you'll be supporting Lucinda Creighton for justice this time round then.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

I take it you'll be supporting Lucinda Creighton for justice this time round then.

Not at all, Barry Andrews in the single party Government...;)

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

Not at all, Barry Andrews in the single party Government...;)

That your joke of the day.

Neither Andrews nor O'Callaghan will be in the 30th Dáil. Being all the way down in Kerry, I wouldn't expect you to know that. Fianna Fail have shot themselves in both feet in DSE.

ballooba

ballooba wrote:

O'Callaghan

Who?

ballooba wrote:

DSE.

Where?

ballooba

Deleted User wrote:

Who?

Unfortunately for Andrews the voters of DSE know exactly who he is and he is doing very well on the doorsteps. I had a letter in the door today from Eoin Ryan claiming to be right behind BOTH* candidates. The dogs on the street know that Ryan is favouring Andrews and has drafted in reinforcements from Brussels to help him.

*Ryan's emphasis btw, not mine.

Deleted User wrote:

Where?

Dublin South East, one of the main swing constituencies. Among it's residents are Lucinda Creighton, Ruari Quinn, John Gormley, Eoin Ryan, Michael McDowell, Jim O'Callaghan, Chris Andrews.... oh and me too.

4 seats but only one quota for FF. The writing is on the wall.

ballooba

Whoops, I just realised you were talking about Chris' cousin Barry.

Another of Ryan's protege.

E92

ballooba wrote:

Fianna Fail have shot themselves in both feet in DSE.

Forgive my ignorance balloba but what exactly have Feel and Fail done in DSE that makes you say what you said. I mean apart from not delivering on a load of promises that have been recycled for this election and they say that they will do in the next 5 years that they failed to do in the last 10, is there anything else that has contributed to their downfall there. Feel and Fails vote has collapsed in Cork North Central for instance(because they delivered absolutely nothing for CNC in the past 5 years), they may not even get two seats there(Bernard Allens and Kathleen Lynches seats are said to be safe and Fine Gaels Gerry Kelly is said to be polling well and has a good chance of getting us a second seat there at Feel and Fails expense, its a bit of a long shot I admit, but if Kelly doesnt get in he wont have been far off getting a seat so I'm told) in the words of one person I know who is in Feel and Fail ''we're f***ed''(in relation to CNC and actually overall)

ballooba

They have split a single quota pretty much equally between two candidates. In doing so they have left the door open for Creighton to sneak in.

E92

balloba wrote:

They have split a single quota pretty much equally between two candidates. In doing so they have left the door open for Creighton to sneak in.

It seems that Feel and Fail have their uses after all:D

Lucinda is a fantastic candidate anyway. She gave a very polished performance on the 'Prime Time Late Debate' last night(In the interests of being fair and as unbiased as I posssibly can be I will point out that she was up against some fool of a Feel and Failer and a Shinner,so it wasnt exactly difficult for her). She and Maireád Mc Guiness are 2 of the finest politicians we(FG) have IMO.

By the way its every man for himself and feck the transfers in Cork South Central with the Feel and Failers, a sure sign that they are in trouble in these parts.

ballooba

And Lucinda is only 27. Do you think i'd be in with a shot at the title?

I like the older women. The election posters don't do her justice at all.

E92

Balloba I take it that Lucinda should get in comfortably. She deserves to. IIRC she did very well in the locals in 04. And what about Brody Sweeny? I'd imagine he has a good chance. Or has he?

ballooba

E92 wrote:

Balloba I take it that Lucinda should get in comfortably.

The only thing we have to fear is complacency.

To be honest Lucinda's seat is nowhere near guaranteed. Her team are putting in a sterling effort to give her the best chance.

Fianna Fail are helping out where they can too of course.

E92

Well I certainly wouldnt want to be complacent now would I, otherwise I'd have inherited a Feel and Fail trait:) . I was only making the suggestion based on what I have heard. After all the opinion polls traditionally under estimate FG and over estimate FF, but they were right in 2002, and I'd nearly say that FG on 31% is too high, and in the thread that mentioned us being on 31% a short while back, I said that we couldnt get carried away, but the trend is certainly going our way, so I hope to God we'll get in, and I think we have a good chance.

ballooba

E92 wrote:

Well I certainly wouldnt want to be complacent now would I, otherwise I'd have inherited a Feel and Fail trait:) . I was only making the suggestion based on what I have heard.

Wasn't suggesting you were. Need a good show on the 24th. Hopefully the dodgy election date won't cause too much upset.

E92

I thought it was very ironic when Bertie said(on Sunday) that he hoped that there would be a good turnout on the election day, and then has it on a Thursday.

Dandesav

tHE vAGGABOND wrote:

Shatter is an actual barrister, and has years and years of legal training and real world experience. Who bleedin cares what he looks like on a poster. Its people like him we need in the dail, writing and amending laws. People who have a clue about what is going on in the legal world..

I'm in Dublin South, but I did not vote for Shatter last time, for no real reason tbh. But he will be getting a 1 or 2 from me this time, as I think you need smart blokes like him in the dail to counter the Jackie Healy rae's of this world

At last someone with a bit of sense!!
This is my first election (I turned 18 in September) and he'll definitely be getting my No.1. He has one of the best records of any TD and he's the kind of person so lacking in the Dáil!!!

wow sierra

Election posters matter, the irritating stuff we get in the door matters, the visits to schools to hand out stickers matter, calling to doors matter.

One of the most talked about aspects of the 2002 campaign is Mc Dowell up a pole putting up election posters - when I last checked he was a brilliant lawyer too - doesn't make most people like him.

I have heard people say they voted for someone cos they called to the door while I just find that irritating.

A nine year old I know is very excited cos our local councillor called to his school - he has told his parents, his neighbours and me and counting - its called name recognition.

Some people follow Dáil performance, political ability etc etc etc etc

Others care that someone is good crack and knows their football and went to the voters grannys funeral etc etc etc

Its a hugely complex issue winning elections.

athtrasna

Badabing wrote:

She's Dublin mid west and i think lives in Newcastle.

She is Mid West but she lives in D4 - another world. SHE doesn't spend hours on the N4 or the N7 but claims to represent the people who do. Hmmmmm....:rolleyes: