Overbet and folding the nuts

ocallagh

1/2 Mansion.

Hand #1 - Overbet

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I have 200, villain covers.

I'm only at the table 2 minutes. Villain is a regular, a good TAG. He probably thinks I bet too much, and my image is probably not great as I tend to play a bit LAGGY at 1/2.

I get AK on button and make it 8 to go. Villain calls in SB. BB Folds.

Flop [17] AK3r
Villain checks.
I bet 12.
Villain pushes for about 275
Hero?

Hand #2 - Folding the Nuts

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I have 375, Villain covers. I was going to pretend to be the villain here, but decided not to. It's about his play and not mine.

There is a min raise UTG to 4.
Folded to Hero in C/O who calls $4 with Kc9c.
SB Folds
Villain calls $2 with K9 spades in BB.

Flop [13] AcQdTc
Villain checks.
UTG bets $8.
Hero calls $8.
Villain calls $8.

Turn [37] Jd
Villain bets 24
UTG Folds
Hero shoves

My question here is, should the villain call this?

El Stuntman

hand 1 - misclick. Call

hand 2 - if he correctly has you on a suited King redrawing to a flush, then no. But he won't. What happened?

Ste05

1: I'd call, could be a misclick, could be a set, tricky one... I know I was playing a hand similarly where I was the Villain similar to this, I raised in EP with JJ, called on the button, flop came AKx I misclicked and open pushed for $225 or so into a $25 ish pot and the other guy called with AK. Although it took him an eternity to call, I think he very nearly folded :mad:

2: I don't really think he should really be calling for a split, but could easily do it. I like your play...

phantom_lord

1. call/

2. no, I don't think so. not when you're probably freerolling.

El Stuntman

I'll try some Junior Cert level maths here

the villain will split 80% of the time in hand 2 (winning half of the dead money in the pot i.e. $6.50, UTG's $12 plus the SB)

he'll lose 20% of the time (losing $375)

therefore his EV over 5 hands is -$349 :eek:

fold fold fold

phantom_lord

I'll try some Junior Cert level maths here

the villain will split 80% of the time in hand 2 (winning half of the dead money in the pot i.e. $6.50, UTG's $12 plus the SB)

he'll lose 20% of the time (losing $375)

therefore his EV over 5 hands is -$349

ocallagh is probably bluffing some % of the time tho right?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

valor

bluffing in #2 is retarded

phantom_lord

El Stuntman wrote:

I'll try some Junior Cert level maths here

the villain will split 80% of the time in hand 2 (winning half of the dead money in the pot i.e. $6.50, UTG's $12 plus the SB)

he'll lose 20% of the time (losing $375)

therefore his EV over 5 hands is -$349 :eek:

fold fold fold

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shrapnel222

hand 1 is a definite call for me

hand 2, if the villain has two Diamonds or two clubs with the K of that suit, i think he's calling every time. If he has just a K, it'll be very read dependent

semibluff

not sure about hand one, he prb has u on an ace, and maybe with hit A3, and thinks he's get paid. with trips it is a terrible bet, but yet again perhaps double bluffing. I dont think a fold is the worse move here, as if he is willing to bet so large with a hand that does beat you (or a bluff) then i think you will get better opportunities to catch him.

smoothcall

1 . call

2 . call. everybody goin on here that youd fold the nuts every time , such a lie.

ianmc38

Call both.

Hitman Actual

El Stuntman wrote:

I'll try some Junior Cert level maths here

the villain will split 80% of the time in hand 2 (winning half of the dead money in the pot i.e. $6.50, UTG's $12 plus the SB)

he'll lose 20% of the time (losing $375)

therefore his EV over 5 hands is -$349 :eek:

fold fold fold

I don't think an 80:20 split is right though. That would only be right if ocallagh only ever pushed here with the free-rolling straight. But it's 1/2, so can a villain ever assume that?

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

semibluff

Edit:




Another opportunity

Hectorjelly

I think hand 2 a push isnt the best option, most villains wont fold (they should) but you are really making it easy for him. Making it 125 or something is much better. This is a much more dangerous and confusing proposition.

Hand 1 is very close to a fold, I doubt he will ever turn up with one pair. If he will its an instant call, and if he can have A3 its a relunctant call. If he really is tight then its a fold, as the worst hand he will ever have is Ak.

El Stuntman

Hectorjelly wrote:

Hand 1 is very close to a fold, I doubt he will ever turn up with one pair. If he will its an instant call, and if he can have A3 its a relunctant call. If he really is tight then its a fold, as the worst hand he will ever have is Ak.

he's a good TAG apparently

so AA, KK are highly, highly unlikely

would he do this with 33?

Hectorjelly

El Stuntman wrote:

he's a good TAG apparently

so AA, KK are highly, highly unlikely

would he do this with 33?

AA and KK arent unlikely, when vtight players call raises they often have either one of them. I think in this case the most likely hand for the villain is 33, then kk.

Yes

El Stuntman

Hectorjelly wrote:

I think in this case the most likely hand for the villain is 33, then kk.

if this is correct (I'm not saying it is) - then he's hardly 'a good TAG' and we can have no confidence in our reads!

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

dougee19

hand 1 = call for me, why would anyone play a set that aggresively, if he has 33 then you're unlucky, but at least u have outs

hand 2 is simple enough for me,
if i was in his position, at the time i would probably call, but looking back on it it would be right to fold.... not enough time to think about it online that I would call over 95% of the time, but it isnt a horrible call, i have called with a lot worse....

El Stuntman

UnLuckyLloyd wrote:

Hold on. Does a thinking 1 / 2 player never hit top pair here and, thinking that O' Callagh is pushing him around and being involved too much, just decide that this is the time he teaches him a lesson: "don't fcuk with me". No?

the % chance of that is so small it's not worth considering imo

Hectorjelly

El Stuntman wrote:

if this is correct (I'm not saying it is) - then he's hardly 'a good TAG' and we can have no confidence in our reads!

Your definition of a good TAG is obviously different to mine, I dont see anything wrong with flat calling KK or AA there. If he was actually any good his range would be wider than just sets and ak though, but at 12 a regular tags range will just be that.

insafehands

1; call every day of the week. If he has a set, just wow. Who pushes for that much into a $28 pot? If you've got a set, you want callers, and imo, $12 looks like a standard c-bet; why on earth would he push if he had the nuts?

From his point-of-view, you have an ace most of the time, so with 2p or a set there's no way he'd play it like this.

Misclick. Call.

phantom_lord

insafehands wrote:

1; call every day of the week. If he has a set, just wow. Who pushes for that much into a $28 pot? If you've got a set, you want callers, and imo, $12 looks like a standard c-bet; why on earth would he push if he had the nuts?

no one here's folding ak. why not shove a set?

ocallagh

#1
I called but didn't like it. I figured it might be a misclick (there is an all in button on mansion which cannot be disabled) or A3 enough of the time. I never ruled out KK or AA, but I genuinely thought 33 was my biggest concern. He had 33 and it stood up. Looking back at it, against this villain it was definitely the wrong call.

#2
I agree with HJ about the 125 in principle.

Against some players 125 makes much more sense. Also, other flush draws and FH draws might make a terrible call for 125. In addition to this, if the river is a diamond it is possible to bluff it.

Against the villain in question I figured he'd call the push every time. He thought for about 5 seconds and called. The river was a blank.

Hectorjelly

did you hit your flush?

ocallagh

Hectorjelly wrote:

did you hit your flush?

nope!