Summer set to come to an end ( but for how long?)

ninebeanrows

Yes, the month long freakish heatwave, which smashed records in to small indistinguishable pieces is about to come to an end. 3 days remain in this period of warm/ sunny weather with tomorrow, Friday and Saturday set to remain warm, sunny but with increasing convection inland. Temperatures could tip to 20/21 in the east on Saturday. However, on Sunday winds will pick up from the west and the first appreciable depression in around 2 months will whisk in from the west with a dollop of rain and fresh winds. It will be noticeable cooler also, this new spell of unsettled, cool weather is likely to last for at least 5 days or more with perhaps some below average conditions prevailing for a short period :eek: .. My feeling is though, that as the days pass, this unsettled spell will get smaller and smaller and probably only last the suggested 5 days before the Azores high nudges northeastwards

Gonzo

Hopefully it will be very short lived. The last 6 weeks with the exception of a few dull/damp days have been heavenly. We have done very well so far and certainly better than our Spanish cousins who have had very poor conditions over past month or more. Todays high was 15C in Malaga and 13C in Madrid, not what you wold expect at the start of Summer in Spain. My friends returned from Eastern Spain over a weeek ago, they spent the 2 weeks sitting inside as it rained almost every day.

solas

do you know what is causing the highs and do you think there will be knock on effects, for instance I understand hurricane seasons in the US are greatly influenced by sea temperatures and as noted in the UK recently a small earthquake was triggered during the warm spell. (as they say in greece when the weather is unusually warm there's a a quake on the way)
I don't know if there's a polar opposite to el nino, but if there is is this it?

darkman2

My own forcast is for a big shift. I think we will see wintry showers soon. HP over GL is more pronounced now with the warming of the stratosphere. Expect linkage there with the Azores High and for us to be on the cold front. Wintry showers look likely in my view as Northerly winds set in. A big change on the way for May.

Gonzo

I hope that doesnt turn out to be true Darkman, wintry showers in May!!! I wud hate that as much as I hate seeing mild wet muck in the winter. I want a long hot sunny summer where I can sit out in the garden in the evenings and at weekends sipping pints of beer and having the occassional barbeque. So far this years heading in the right track, I just hope that next week is a very short lived and temporary hicup in our long warm summer!

rc28

darkman2 wrote:

My own forcast is for a big shift. I think we will see wintry showers soon. HP over GL is more pronounced now with the warming of the stratosphere. Expect linkage there with the Azores High and for us to be on the cold front. Wintry showers look likely in my view as Northerly winds set in. A big change on the way for May.

Wow, I actually thought you were taking the piss cause in my mind May and wintry showers just don't go together! Are you still forecasting wintry showers today? I just can't imagine it happening given how above average the sst's and land is.
I really hope we have a baking hot summer with 33.1c finally been broken (the irish temp record) but no drought (t-storms instead:D ) cause I'd hate to see all the plants wilt and given that there are already water shortages in some areas due to the dry April.

fatherdougalmag

Heh heh heh: 30th May - 3°c (37°f), 55% chance of rain.

mike65

Rofles. How did they end up with that?

Mike.

darkman2

Wintry showers do occur in May and in fact have most years (not snow of course but a bit of hail or a drop of sleet is not too uncommon). We also still get frost. I think something a little more spring like as opposed to summer like is likely for the next week or two. Getting windier at times too with plenty of rain likely through next week.

Gonzo

the change is here, feeling very cold outside, jackets on, coldest its felt in at least 5 to 6 weeks.

Supercell

Had a couple of light showers here today, heres to much more rain next week, definately needed.

Raining here currently

Hal1

It hasnt rainned here in the last hour or so but I can see more organised showers moving in this direction. Sth dublin.

Sponge Bob

There are signs of summer 'returning' in a week , see here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Gonzo

hopefully ur rite, im sick of the rain and cold already and want my warm sunny days back:)

Mothman

Different part of country, different climate.
It's been warmer here since loosing the sea breezes during the "summer", and finally today a bit of rain (5mm) to keep dust down. Only had 1.6mm this month before today.

mike2084

Metcheck is forecasting a possible improvement next week:


http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

ninebeanrows

After a few days of perhaps below average temperatures and unsettled weather, there is strong indications of a change to much warmer weather with 850hpa temperatures perhaps exceeding +10c

Gonzo

May so far has been a cool washout except for the end of the April heatwave first few days of May and today somehow reached 24C in parts of the country (according to the RTE forecast on tv) but its back to the cold weather again for next few days so hopefully ur rite about this much warmer, calmer weather for later next week.

Danno

Looking through GFS there is no end in sight. Friday is plugged to be a battle ground day between cool NW Atlantic air and hot SE continental air. A washout day can be expected (as per the charts). Unfortunately for heatwave seekers, the Atlantic barges through sending the heatwave to Lapland and Svalbaard! :eek:

darkman2

Yup, the resuvoirs will be overflowing by the end of next week:)

Surrey Snow

Summer to return at the end of May/beginning of June!

SS

darkman2

We will see. Hopefully. Have had ALOT of rain here in recent days........Personally I think it will be two weeks at least before HP builds in - most likely from the Azores IMO.

Trogdor

Lol, burst out laughing when i saw this just now, on the 12z run metcheck show snow on Saturday night/sunday morning. That would be some end to a summer;).
http://www.brayweather.com/snow.jpg

arctictree

GFS showing a biting north easterly with a deep depression for Sunday night:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

Now - if this was in January....

A

darkman2

lol! Indeed. We always seem to get the right synoptics at the wrong time of year:rolleyes:

Gonzo

thre cud be wintry weather on the higher ground by sunday evening, metcheck are goin for temperatures of around 6 to 10C for next sunday and monday.

rc28

Gonzo wrote:

thre cud be wintry weather on the higher ground by sunday evening, metcheck are goin for temperatures of around 6 to 10C for next sunday and monday.

Lol I wouldn't take much notice of Metcheck because in my experience of their "forecasts" they are never right- they come directly off the model ouput and change every few hours.