A Licence to Print Money ...

TOm Kelly

Over the years it has always been said that a bookmakers licence was a 'Licence to Print Money' ... until Betfair came along.

And I, as a n ordinary punter would have firmly believed this - and may even have considered occasionally going after the easy pickings that came with a licence ... but didn't for whatever reason.

Now we have BF so anybody can be a bookie ... but man it is some eye-opener!

I have observed it for a while ... and have spent the past 2 months camped on it ... I have tried trading and laying ... and I have the scars to prove it ... it certainly is not easy ...

Yes the theory is it should be easy to pick losers ... we can do it all day if we step into a bookies ... but when you put your money down - it is not the same.

OK - you have to give somewhat better odds - 20% popularly quoted - but I think it may be slightly less on shorter priced horses ... and you have to pay commission - assume the max of 5%

Still the bookmakers are absolutely thriving - I know a lot of revenue comes from non-horseracing activities but you may be certain that their horse book is profitable -

- and yet the average layer cannot make it pay on BF - DESPITE the fact that he does not have the HUGE overheads that the bookie has ... Premises / Rent / SIS / Wages / Advertising etc. - surely these more than balance out the enhanced odds and commission that Joe Layer has to face on BF.

Joe Layer has a Free Betting Shop - No Staff - 24 Hour Service - No Credit or Debt Collection - A Captive Audience of Gambling Addicts - No Commuting Expenses or Stress - Does not have to give out Free Coffee or Free Bets - and Does not have to pay Income Tax ...

... and yet Joe cannot make it pay ...

It appears to me that there are 3 winners on BF - Big Players - Bots - and Betfair.


I am talking about being a bookie - laying horses - can we come up with a strategy that will return a profit ... I have to admit that I am ashamed of myself that I cannot seem to formulate one that will guarantee a profit and despatch me to a well-earned retirement - input required please.

scojones

Lay the number 4 horse in every Irish race! http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?t=740

masterK

If you want to get serious about laying you really need to be able to price up a race, or at least have a reasonable stab at coming up with a price that represents a horses chance in a race.

It's not as easy as just saying a certain horse will not win, you need to have an idea of what price that horse is a value lay at. Say you're 90% certain a horse won't win, anything under 9/1 is value and anything above that isn't. Likewise if you were only 50% sure a horse wouldn't win then you need to lay at below evens to make it value.

I find it best to pick out one or two horses in a race and focus on them for laying purposes. Analyze their record on the current ground, course etc. Also for flat racing pay serious attention to the draw, I find there are always very good value laying opportunities for badly drawn horses who otherwise would have a great chance.

BangBeater

lol! Sure why not like?!

cson

You need a laot of capital behind you to make it pay as a 'bookie' on betfair and the like.

mcaul

BetFair makes it sound easy to trade but think of how the bookies do it.

They will take bets on ALL the horses in a race and adjust their odds according to the cash they take in.

On Betfair, many punters will only lay one or two horses, so cannot offset losses on the winning horse against the other 10 / 12 horses in the race. - Thus the bigger amount of cash being lost

A good bookie will work on approx. 10 - 12% "commission" or "profit" on all the bets taken on any individual race - favourite wins and his "commission" is usually 3 - 7%, whereas if an outsider wins his "commission" could be as high as 20 - 30%.

On small punter bets of €20 - €50 the difference is not so much as to warrant the hassle of the exchanges.

Robin1982

mcaul wrote:

...A good bookie will work on approx. 10 - 12% "commission" or "profit" on all the bets taken on any individual race - favourite wins and his "commission" is usually 3 - 7%, whereas if an outsider wins his "commission" could be as high as 20 - 30%...

I think it would be more realistic that the bookie would have lost money if a favoured or short-odds horse won.

TOm Kelly

slightly different perspectives from masterk and mcaul there - ie lay only a couple or lay em all ...

my feeling is that as the prices get bigger you have to give a much bigger price on BF to secure the bet ... eg you may have to go 16/1 about a 10/1 shot ... and so expose yourself to a nasty surprise ...

I don't go racing that much these days - must get back into it - but when I did I always watched Richard Power - always felt he was the man -

As I recall he often seemed to have maybe only 3 horses priced up - first 3 favs - even in a 20 horse race ...

now thats the type of scenario I could live with - what was he doing and how did he do it and can I or anybody else here do it on BF - how do you price up that type of setup - is he still doing it?

Thanks for input and keep it coming.

TOm Kelly

scojones wrote:

Lay the number 4 horse in every Irish race! http://www.letsbet.ie/forum/showthread.php?t=740

scojones - the work ethic involved in implementing your system is very much in line with my asperations for a retirementing plan that may sustain me in a lifestyle that would be befitting of an investor in the risk markets ...

knighted

TOm Kelly wrote:

slightly different perspectives from masterk and mcaul there - ie lay only a couple or lay em all ...

my feeling is that as the prices get bigger you have to give a much bigger price on BF to secure the bet ... eg you may have to go 16/1 about a 10/1 shot ... and so expose yourself to a nasty surprise ...

I don't go racing that much these days - must get back into it - but when I did I always watched Richard Power - always felt he was the man -

As I recall he often seemed to have maybe only 3 horses priced up - first 3 favs - even in a 20 horse race ...

now thats the type of scenario I could live with - what was he doing and how did he do it and can I or anybody else here do it on BF - how do you price up that type of setup - is he still doing it?

Thanks for input and keep it coming.

richard power was prob doing something diff to what u think as he is a rails bookie -u could bet the others with him but u have to ask for a price plus protects himself against the ring bookies who lay off to him -but didnt he start paddy power bookies originally -one thing about him though is he is or was fearless but the game has changed so much now even he has an rdi machine i think -u should ring betdaq and get them to send u info on there service to bookmakers -basically its a bot but u can lay ur book to them to cover ur liabilities -they can explain it better -so if u lay everyhorse on betfair u can suppossedly cover ur self on betdaq -the bot does the calculations and staking for u to lock in a pre dertermined profit or margin as far as i know

scojones

TOm Kelly wrote:

scojones - the work ethic involved in implementing your system is very much in line with my asperations for a retirementing plan that may sustain me in a lifestyle that would be befitting of an investor in the risk markets ...

imeatingchips

I might be wrong about this, but, from what I understand... the markets on betfair are almost always above 100%, for example, look at the 2000 guineas market now and it's hovering around 105.2% - if you lay everything here you'll be locking in, on average, a loss of 5.2%. If it ever drops below 100% you can lock in profit but the bots are a lot quicker on the draw than a person can be, so average joe layer can forget about that.

As we all know, the thing that swings it for bookies is the odds that they offer. If someone walked into a bookie and stuck a grand on silent oscar the bookie could say 'no problems bosco, 20-1, g luck'. He could then go on the exchange and back silent oscar for 500 at 40-1. I know that's oversimplifying it a bit but ye know what I mean. Bookies have been passing on bets forever and the exchanges make it even easier for them - make no mistake, they use the exchanges too - and all they're doing is buying and selling prices. When you're operating solely on betfair you have to wait till the market moves before you can start trading to lock in profit.

If I've a bit of money on something and the price comes in I use http://www.betcalc.com/backlaycalc.php to lock in profit or at least cover the cost of my bet. Likewise, if you're laying and the price drifts a bit, then you can back him a bit and lock in profit.

ps - this should probably be in the gambling forum as it's nowt really to do with race horses

wb

I used to do quite a lot of laying, but the markets have matured a lot and the the margins have tightened up. I now concentrate on backing. It's very difficult to lay the field on betfair because of the high prices on outsiders. Most serious layers that I know have cut-off points - I'd never lay above 10.0 for example as the prices go ridiculous after that.

It appears to me that there are 3 winners on BF - Big Players - Bots - and Betfair.

I use a bot, but it aint a licence to print money. If your strategy is bad, a bot will simply help you lose money faster than you would manually.

When laying, in non-handicaps, I usually look at the top 4 in the market (which win over 70% of the races). I weigh each one up against each other, look at the form for all 4 and turn it into a competition for all four. I generally lay which one I think has the least chance, provided it comes under my cut-off.

Handicaps are a different story, and I have found that backing is the way forward there. Some of the prices can be great, and I stay away from the lays there.

TOm Kelly

Moderator - please move thread if inappropriate.

Now we are starting to make a bit of progress.

What I meant by bots winning was that they are winning / losing against each other and one way or another screwing up Joe Layer's chances.

There are only 2 Guaranteed winners - Betfair - and the layer that knows a horse won't be winning / placing ... but given that these are outside our remit - we must move on.

It seems that we will be best advised to leave longer shots alone ... narrow down the field using some criteria and focusing there - perhaps as per WB with first 4 favs or Masterk with unfavourable draws ...

What I am trying to avoid is having to pick one like WB ... as this is just punting in reverse.

wb wrote:

Handicaps are a different story, and I have found that backing is the way forward there. Some of the prices can be great, and I stay away from the lays there.

I thought it would be the opposite there

wb

I thought it would be the opposite there

In general, more favs at the top of the market win non-handicaps so they are easier to predict in one sense. However, I love handicaps because there are plenty of occasions where the handicapper gets it wrong, and the horse is carrying way too little weight. Actually, I run a very successful bank on that idea: http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=46350&page=8

I feel that the trick with all betting is to specialise. The small advantage that we have over the bookie is the fact that we don't have to back or offer prices for every race. If one specialises in a certain type of race, dividends can be paid.

TOm Kelly

knighted wrote:

-u should ring betdaq and get them to send u info on there service to bookmakers -basically its a bot but u can lay ur book to them to cover ur liabilities -they can explain it better -so if u lay everyhorse on betfair u can suppossedly cover ur self on betdaq -the bot does the calculations and staking for u to lock in a pre dertermined profit or margin as far as i know

Spoke to them - they are not interested unless you are a bookie on course - I tried the angle that I was a bookie online and did not see what the difference was ... but the lady was not for changing. Thanks Knighted.

kincsem

I think you have to have a lot of knowledge to make money in a competative market. Years ago the bookies would have about a 20% margin, so they could get it wrong, and still make money.

I only lay on Betfair when I already have a bet on that horse at big prices. My only other lays were in the Oaks and Derby last year. They were place lays. In that situation the prices are shorter and your profit is larger if they fail to place. They were 5th and 11th. Two bets a year is not a business, but I avoid run of the mill racing like the plague.

Magdeline

It appears to me that there are 3 winners on BF - Big Players - Bots - and Betfair.


I am talking about being a bookie - laying horses - can we come up with a strategy that will return a profit ... I have to admit that I am ashamed of myself that I cannot seem to formulate one that will guarantee a profit and despatch me to a well-earned retirement - input required please.[/QUOTE]

But Can the Big Players get they're Bets on with Betfair???

TOm Kelly

The Big Players I am referring to are not, I think what you mean by BPs - I see on other thread that 20 grand may be your type of bet ...

The BPs I meant were ones with very big balances in Betfair accounts that they use to mop up bets such as 50 quid @ 1000/1 - they need 50 grand in their account to cover that one bet - and only win 50 quid ...

anyway there are loads of different strategies it seems ... but if you want to get 20 grand @ 6/1 - just go in and put it up as a bet waiting for somebody to lay ... the way Betfair works - your bet might be covered by a hundred different punters in bits and pieces ... or it might not be covered at all if nobody is interested ... it is all automated and not too hard to understand ... after you are down a couple of hundred grand - you will start to get the hang of it ...

some individual races have hundreds of thousands staked on them -- I don't think you will be too big for Betfair ... but there is no credit that I know of - and don't forget the commission that will be deducted from your winnings ...

Good Luck