whats my next move

kakak1

Trying as best I can to remember this hand.

Only second level of live tournament, starting stacks were 20K, blinds now 100/200.
All players have similar stack sizes around 17K/18K.
Folded around to button who raises to 1200.
Flat called by SB(Villian) and also called by BB (Hero) holding Kc Qc.

Player on the button will always put in a continuation bet no matter the flop.

Flop 8d 10c Jc giving me an open ended Royal flush draw, flush draw & straight draw.
SB checks, BB checks with the intention of re-raising the button.
Button duly obliges by raising to 2300 and is raised to 6100 by the SB.

My move is …………………….

Mellor

ship it, you have two shots at 15 outs.
you cant fold, flat calling makes the pot bigger than your stack and the turn card could make it tougher for you, no help and he ships it, or flush comes and he gets away from it,
and a raise is going to have to be all-in

shoutman

Push

cooker3

Any reads on the sb. It very much depends on him. If he is decent then he will know that the original raiser will continuation bet and will raise him with a lot of hands. My read on him dictates everything.
My default is probably to push mainly as I have an inability to fold such a big draw especially on the flop.

shoutman

Even if sb has AJ TPTK, you are still 2:1 favourite by my reckoning.

I dont think anyone can fold this hand on that flop, its standard push for me.

kakak1

shoutman wrote:

Push

I still have about 15K = 75 BB, push so early

kakak1

cooker3 wrote:

Any reads on the sb. It very much depends on him. If he is decent then he will know that the original raiser will continuation bet and will raise him with a lot of hands. My read on him dictates everything.
My default is probably to push mainly as I have an inability to fold such a big draw especially on the flop.

Hate to admit this, as he will be reading this, but he is a decent player :eek:

however I feel I am behind but I do have a lot of outs

bottom feeder

not sure about your call pre flop, but never folding on this flop, what more can you ask for with KQ sooted, PUSH

shoutman

You push and they fold you have added 12k to your stack. If either of them call you always have loads of outs and I'd say a decent part of the time you are ahead...

I'm guessing you folded though.

Mellor

kakak1 wrote:

I still have about 15K = 75 BB, push so early

you are fav my miles,
you need to double up and this is the best chance you'll get,
plus you will often pick up the pot right here

gerry87

If he was just playing at the button with TP or something then he'll more than likely fold to a push, you're ahead of so much here if you're called. Even if he flopped the nuts w/ Q9 you're ahead. A set you're only slightly behind. As long as he doesn't have A9c you're golden

How many started and how many left? Would this change anyones decision to push if it was second level of a 200 runner game vs a 30 runner game? Doubling up early in the 200 runner game wouldn't put you that much closer to winning it than doubling in the 30 runner game, would it? Marginal utility and all that.

Mr.Plough

im shoving 100% of the time.

youve good f/e and your not worried if you get called

phantom_lord

Mr.Plough wrote:

im shoving 100% of the time.

youve good f/e and your not worried if you get called

I don't think he has have any f/e. but his hand plenty of equity so ship it.

cooker3

kakak1 wrote:

Hate to admit this, as he will be reading this, but he is a decent player :eek:

however I feel I am behind but I do have a lot of outs

Well your maybe behind but he will fold a lot of hands as your line does look strong so push looks sweeeeeeeeeeeet

kakak1

gerry87 wrote:

How many started and how many left? Would this change anyones decision to push if it was second level of a 200 runner game vs a 30 runner game? Doubling up early in the 200 runner game wouldn't put you that much closer to winning it than doubling in the 30 runner game, would it? Marginal utility and all that.

only 11 players started so all were placed on the 1 table & still 11 remaining

Mr.Plough

phantom_lord wrote:

I don't think he has have any f/e. but his hand plenty of equity so ship it.

sorry didnt see c/r by sb

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

valor

i think he has some decent folding equity with a shove if the SB is aware enough to realise the button always cbets and if the sb gives him respect

Backstreet Moyes

Tricky decision depends on your read on the small blind is he capable of playing back light here. The only hand your not favourite against is a set and if the player on button is who i think it probably is then the villian would surely flat call with a set and expect to c/r the turn. Im pushing here everytime unless the small blind is richie. You cant flat call 6k at this stage and with your reputation the sb might muck 2 pair here if hes capable of throwing away a hand. What makes this play profitable is the amount of times you make him fold and pick up a nice pot without having to hit. Worst scenario he calls and your probably 50/50 to win a nice pot. Who were the other two involved in the hand actually?

kakak1

shoutman wrote:

You push and they fold you have added 12k to your stack. If either of them call you always have loads of outs and I'd say a decent part of the time you are ahead...

I'm guessing you folded though.

Nope, I pushed, button folded, SB thought & called & showed pocket 10's for a set. Paired the boared with an 8 on the turn I was then drawing very thin for just the 9c or Ac which neither came. :eek:

Whats my next move............. head for home :rolleyes:

valor

there is really no strategy to be discussed here - its pretty much just a bad beat/cooler. you should always always shove here

shoutman

I agree with valor, unlucky to be beaten but the hand played itself.

cooker3

kakak1 wrote:

Whats my next move.............

Head for a bar, find an attractive barmaid, make a move and try to get it all in.

shoutman

Well said rob.

All you can eat baby!

Hitman Actual

valor wrote:

there is really no strategy to be discussed here - its pretty much just a bad beat/cooler. you should always always shove here

Exactly. This is a standard push.

dK1NG

cooker3 wrote:

Head for a bar, find an attractive barmaid, make a move and try to get it all in.

phantom_lord

valor wrote:

there is really no strategy to be discussed here - its pretty much just a bad beat/cooler. you should always always shove here

but do we really need to risk our tourny life here?

bops

phantom_lord wrote:

but do we really need to risk our tourny life here?

i guess the above is sarcastic - i'm never good at spotting it!
but it's a good question imo!!

it's early in a tourney, you have a million bb's, and it is extemely likely that your push will be called by the sb - so you are currently behind and basically racing for your stack. I know you can have a max of 15 outs twice, but you still gotta hit!

i see you were planning on check/raising the button - that's all good, he'll probably fold, and even if he doesn't it aint too bad, but when the sb gets involved it's a completely different story, you may consider the fold here.

...in saying that, the sb knew exactly what you knew - that the button was going to bet the flop no matter what, so it is v possible that he was making a play here too, and may fold to your push!!


god that makes it all very clear!!

...ok bottom line is push with oesfd - fk it!!

ul gg

bops

need to post quick - im very numerically superstitious!

bops

ahhh that's better!!

Goodluck2me

you have a non-nut flush draw and a nut straight draw. any hand that calls you here will have you beat, if ever i fold this hand its here. the c-r from the SB does look strong, you`ve no FE. the results are what matter here, its the fact he had a set and everyone says "sure he never has a set here" which is why the play is bad. becuase we got the range all wrong and not because we lost.
Pesonally i dont like the push at all.

Edit: i actually did worse than this at JP game with 34d on a Ac2d5d flop, Hero checks BB bets 250 (pot was 600) next guy makes it 2K, and i shove for 10K. get called by raisers A5 and the Jd river saves me. but i played it well because i hit.

To summarise: SHOVE :rolleyes:

phantom_lord

goodluck2me wrote:

Edit: i actually did worse than this at JP game with 34d on a Ac2d5d flop, Hero checks BB bets 250 (pot was 600) next guy makes it 2K, and i shove for 10K. get called by raisers A5 and the Jd river saves me. but i played it well because i hit.

To summarise: SHOVE :rolleyes:

and you deal??

Gholimoli

gerry87 wrote:

If he was just playing at the button with TP or something then he'll more than likely fold to a push, you're ahead of so much here if you're called. Even if he flopped the nuts w/ Q9 you're ahead. A set you're only slightly behind. As long as he doesn't have A9c you're golden

How many started and how many left? Would this change anyones decision to push if it was second level of a 200 runner game vs a 30 runner game? Doubling up early in the 200 runner game wouldn't put you that much closer to winning it than doubling in the 30 runner game, would it? Marginal utility and all that.

If this is not a joke then there is some serousness flaw in the logic here.
How the hell do you figure that we are ahead of anything if called here?
Infact we are behind a pair of 2’s if called.
What you prob mean is that we are fav against a lot of hands of called!

Well you are still very wrong if that is what you mean.
Infact we are hardly ever favorite if called here judging by the action and I mean hardly ever.
You will only get called here by two pair + and you are behind if that happens.
To say that we are ahead even if he has the nuts with Q9 is just stupid.
Having outs to the best hand does not mean that we are ahead.
Those advocating a push are not doing it because they think our hand is ahead of lots of hands,they are saying it because they want the raisers to fold to our pushed but if we get called we will not be in that bad a shape (but still behind and deffo not favorite )

On the hand it self I think this is a clear fold.
Im surprised to all saying push here.
There is simply no need to GAMBLE here this early.
I would have to really believe that there is a huge chance of them folding (and I mean huge) before I would consider pushing there.

I would not play the hand in the same though .
We are so deep that we can afford to get the first bet in with the intention of 3 betting if we get raised.
I would lead this flop after SB checked and if I get raised by any of them I would reraise again(obviously if I thought he is just raising me lite).
Any way as played I would fold this every time being this deep.

phantom_lord

we're saying push cause we've a ton of equity, and hopefully some f/e. this is such a clear and obvious shove gholi.


kq is ahead of 2p:

equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	53.333%  	53.33% 	00.00% 	           528 	        0.00   { KcQc }
Hand 1: 	46.667%  	46.67% 	00.00% 	           462 	        0.00   { JhTs }

big fav over 1p

equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	66.667%  	66.67% 	00.00% 	           660 	        0.00   { KcQc }
Hand 1: 	33.333%  	33.33% 	00.00% 	           330 	        0.00   { AhJs }

even vs a set, kqs is still in ok shape

equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	42.121%  	42.12% 	00.00% 	           417 	        0.00   { KcQc }
Hand 1: 	57.879%  	57.88% 	00.00% 	           573 	        0.00   { ThTs }

and, um, he was right when he said we're ahead vs the flopped nuts.

equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	52.273%  	51.52% 	00.76% 	           510 	        7.50   { KcQc }
Hand 1: 	47.727%  	46.97% 	00.76% 	           465 	        7.50   { Qs9h }

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Gholimoli

Ok just to clear up being ahead means currently winning.
We are not ahead of anything if we get called.

We are slight dog or slight fav against the calling range.(mind you I didn’t think we would be fav against the flopped str but if PL’s stats are correct then evidently we are).

TBH I don’t think we have much FE here at all .
And based on that I don’t like the shove.
I stand corrected in my previous post saying it is a clear fold as obviously it is not based on the stats but I would still fold here if I thought my FE was bad to none existent.
Through that by shoving you can just claim your equity here worse case scenario but I think it will be that worse case scenario nearly always.
So essentially you are taking a coin flip to double up or bust (even though I admit the situation is better than the straight out coin flip based on what is already in the pot and what ever FE you may have) but essentially what im saying is that you will be claiming your equity here which is hardly ever more or less than 50% and I don’t like it at this stage.

kakak1

bops wrote:

i guess the above is sarcastic - i'm never good at spotting it!
but it's a good question imo!!

it's early in a tourney, you have a million bb's, and it is extemely likely that your push will be called by the sb - so you are currently behind and basically racing for your stack. I know you can have a max of 15 outs twice, but you still gotta hit!

i see you were planning on check/raising the button - that's all good, he'll probably fold, and even if he doesn't it aint too bad, but when the sb gets involved it's a completely different story, you may consider the fold here.

...in saying that, the sb knew exactly what you knew - that the button was going to bet the flop no matter what, so it is v possible that he was making a play here too, and may fold to your push!!


god that makes it all very clear!!

...ok bottom line is push with oesfd - fk it!!

ul gg

how did you finish on Friday night.

I actually had you on pocket 8's until you said I hope you are on 8's.

Did you at any time think of folding by thinking maybe I had the set of J's or had indeed flopped the straight. (****e call anyway ).

Tar.Aldarion

phantom_lord wrote:

but do we really need to risk our tourny life here?

Yes, yes we do. :P

This is how I went out two weeks ago in a tourny, I'd make the same call.

Hectorjelly

Folding here is a joke, against a set you are about EV neutral (with the dead money in the pot making up for the loss of equity). Since he can have other hands, including ones he will fold (however unlikely that may seem), and lower flush draws, you simply cannot pass here.

cardshark202

Yes its an easy shove but I think preflop is a huge mistake given the stack sizes. You should be re-raising/ folding here most of the time.

Wombatman

Why play KQ sooted if you are not going to leverage its potential here? I'm with HJ.

bops

kakak1 wrote:

how did you finish on Friday night.

I actually had you on pocket 8's until you said I hope you are on 8's.

Did you at any time think of folding by thinking maybe I had the set of J's or had indeed flopped the straight. (****e call anyway ).

3rd - (Colin 1st MJ suckout king 2nd - they did a deal the sissys)

i obviously knew you hand a very big hand/draw - 88 was my best guess tbh, but i was never folding there! - i was enjoying the game and didn't want to get busted out early, and i was not trilled when you showed your hand (at least it wasn't JJ!)

for once the best hand held up! although you hit your flush OTR!!

the button claimed he laid down KK - i don't believe the donkey - if he had TPTK he wudda insta-called!!!!

anyways ul buddy and being a fish is not your style - so kop on in future!!

boogey man

looking for a bite bops
i did have kk i showed to colin on my right
i think you must be getting over excited about being on final table in a tournament was that your first
stick to your cash games wheras i am not convinced yet wether your a complete luckbox or moderately average.
ps TPTK would be A. J. / KK is an overpair i will explain hand rankings in person to you on thursday.

Thinking about the hand kakak I dont think you did any thing wrong except maybe you should have lead out after the flop but it is debateble as for the shove i think 100%

bops

welcome boogeyman!!
the unluckest player ever to grace a poker table!
"run it twice" lol - i had a 4 outter against him for a big pot a while ago - and we ran it twice - and i hit twice that still gotta hurt!

yes i was looking for a bite!

...good read with your exit hand that night - just unlucky - care to explain the details to the masses????

i ended up playin heads up with pat 'till after 5 - jesus he is some fish! - maybe it's old age?

btw your exit hand on the cash table...you knew you were fked right?? it's amazing when you know someone has AA (99% positive) and you still go for it?! (at least i had outs!)

cya thursday - i think i'll attempt to play the crapshoot properly for once - last longest bet perhaps??

gl

kakak1

boogey man wrote:

Thinking about the hand kakak I dont think you did any thing wrong except maybe you should have lead out after the flop but it is debateble as for the shove i think 100%

fcuking did, I pushed & lost

kakak1

bops wrote:

anyways ul buddy and being a fish is not your style - so kop on in future!!

I'm just a sprat trying to emulate a shark like you

boogey man

yes yes yes bops
how often do you have kk there, it was stupid anyway even if i was ahead you would have sucked out any way, was just getting into chip gathering mode went well didnt it.:mad: :rolleyes:
point 2 agree again story of my life at the minute getting good reads and doing the opposite I dont think my brain is connected to my right arm at the moment

RichieLawlor

boogey man wrote:

Yes Richie you were right it is me alex

Got ya

boogey man

RichieLawlor wrote:

Got ya

who are you

bops

boogey man wrote:

who are you

i think his real name is Fishie McFish of the clan McFish's found just off Rosslaire Harbour, but come to land twice a week to donate to charity