River raise any fold here

Hawk Eye

Villain is a 17/10 tag over a short sample.
Should I be leading this flop it's something I think I really need to work on but I'm so used to checking because everyone c-bets which such a high frequency.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: ITH Forums)

Button ($391.90)
SB ($855)
Hero ($784.66)
UTG ($915.40)
MP ($400)
CO ($657.97)

Preflop: Hero is BB with :8d, :td.
UTG raises to $16, 4 folds, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($34) :9h, :8h, :th (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: ($34) :8s (2 players)
Hero bets $24, UTG calls $24.

River: ($82) :qc (2 players)
Hero bets $62, UTG raises to $300, Hero ???

Hectorjelly

Marginally bad call preflop, I know you are deep but since this guy seems fine (his stats look good and I doubt he is calling with bad s'cs oop) this is a 100% losing call - especially if you arent comfortable leading out and generally making nusience of yourself.

Its very hard to put the guy on a hand, I would imagine he would bet a set on that flop. Also if he flopped a flush, why wouldnt he try and get some money into the pot? He might have checked QQ for pot control, but I think thats unlikely. Maybe he flopped a straight flush!

I think I would call the river. I certainly wouldnt raise. If the guy never bluffs the river you could probably fold. Its a tough decision but the real problem is preflop.

sikes

if youre not betting 2 pair when you call OOP with these types of hands, then they can never be profitable.

call the river.

ronanp

Am I missing something here? Are we seriously worried about a bigger house or straight flush?? Is that the kind of thing that goes on at 2/4?!

cardshark202

Looks like QQ with no hearts (lol) but I find it hard to fold here given the lack of stats available.

Hawk Eye

Hectorjelly wrote:

Marginally bad call preflop, I know you are deep but since this guy seems fine (his stats look good and I doubt he is calling with bad s'cs oop) this is a 100% losing call - especially if you arent comfortable leading out and generally making nusience of yourself.

Its very hard to put the guy on a hand, I would imagine he would bet a set on that flop. Also if he flopped a flush, why wouldnt he try and get some money into the pot? He might have checked QQ for pot control, but I think thats unlikely. Maybe he flopped a straight flush!

I think I would call the river. I certainly wouldnt raise. If the guy never bluffs the river you could probably fold. Its a tough decision but the real problem is preflop.

Yeah the only hand that I thought could have me beat on the river was QJh.
I was sure he would c-bet 99 and TT is unlikely.
I'm usually very tight OOP(except for that KQcc i just posted in BBV thread) and from the blinds but occasionaly mess around with all sorts of suited crap.
What implied odds do you think I need to be getting for this call to be profitable? When I have a small pocket pair and I'm oop, I'm strict on myself that I need to be getting 7 times the amount it is is call. But in this case with suited semi-connecters it's diffucult to know the correct implied odds. Maybe something like 9-10 times so in this case anything above 9*12=$108.

Ste05

I actually think there's a huge chance you are beaten here and normally will be. There's obvious straight and flush possibilities, the board is paired and still this guy with 17/10 stats isn't afraid to raise this River. I think you are beaten and if I had enough time to think about or had more of an idea about how this guy plays post flop I might just fold, however because we only have a small sample and no idea about his post-flop abilities (the turn flat call is interesting by him) and we don't know how he views us I'd probably call.

Hawk Eye

ronanp wrote:

Am I missing something here? Are we seriously worried about a bigger house or straight flush?? Is that the kind of thing that goes on at 2/4?!

From my experience whatever the limits when someone raises big on the river like this they usually have the nuts or very close to it so folding is fine here.

bops

probably TT - i think you're beat

if he had nut flush - slap him!

ntlbell

Simply because the size of sample hands is so small it's probably a call for me too.

phantom_lord

it's a fold I think

ronanp

I've gotta start bluffing more on the river!

dvdfan

Ste05 wrote:

I actually think there's a huge chance you are beaten here and normally will be. There's obvious straight and flush possibilities, the board is paired and still this guy with 17/10 stats isn't afraid to raise this River.

Villain had a full house, Did you miss that or do you mean that hes only beating straight and flush.

So with 17/10 Stats and the fact hes raising UTG, we would expect hes range to be 99-AA, AK, AQs and maybe Suited Connecters 9Ts+ but i doubt it.

What beats you from that range that hed make the river RR with:

Likely QQ,99,TT
Unlikely QJh,T9s

What do you beat that a player with these stats might RR on the river with

Likely AQh, AKh

I cant see him raising with AA-KK on that board and cant see any straight doing that on the river. I think its quite close here and your getting 6/4 to call but why would he check the flop in position with either of the 2 above just call the turn and Re raise the river on a paired flush board with a possible Straight Flush there. Looks very like he made his hand on the river as he appeared weak checking the flop and just calling the turn. The only hand i can put him on based on the betting is QQ. QJh if he had that surely hes betting the flop when its checked to him or RR the turn, Same with 99,TT. I would reluctantly fold but i have to confess if i had 30 secs to think about it i would have probably called.

earthworms

its a definite call

ntlbell

dvdfan wrote:

Villain had a full house, Did you miss that or do you mean that hes only beating straight and flush.

Ste's point is there is a lot of possible's out there and our villian obviously isn't afraid of any of them....

ianmc38

its a a really marginal decision. i lean towards a call. folding isnt awful and raising would just be ridiculous.

Hectorjelly

Hawk Eye wrote:

Yeah the only hand that I thought could have me beat on the river was QJh.
I was sure he would c-bet 99 and TT is unlikely.
I'm usually very tight OOP(except for that KQcc i just posted in BBV thread) and from the blinds but occasionaly mess around with all sorts of suited crap.
What implied odds do you think I need to be getting for this call to be profitable? When I have a small pocket pair and I'm oop, I'm strict on myself that I need to be getting 7 times the amount it is is call. But in this case with suited semi-connecters it's diffucult to know the correct implied odds. Maybe something like 9-10 times so in this case anything above 9*12=$108.

what makes you think calling is profitable? It doesnt matter what implied odds you are getting preflop - if the guy plays roughly to the same skill level as you then this is a losing call. There isnt a stack size that makes calling ok. Calling raises out of position to a single raiser is probably the most common mistake in nl cash games.

Also I think you need more than 7 times for pocket pairs, 7 times would be fine if you autostacked someone once you hit a set, which sadly isnt true.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Captain Tom

if he had Axh he either bets flop or raises turn.villian will also never play a straight like this.i dont think he has Ahx very often either because he bets flop nearly always.QQ w/o a heart seems likely.realistically you're only beating air.

i fold.

Hitman Actual

Hawk Eye wrote:

What implied odds do you think I need to be getting for this call to be profitable? When I have a small pocket pair and I'm oop, I'm strict on myself that I need to be getting 7 times the amount it is is call. But in this case with suited semi-connecters it's diffucult to know the correct implied odds.

There was a good thread on 2+2 about coming up with a 5-10 rule for suted connectors. I think the conclusion was a 3-5 rule, or 2-4 rule, something less than 5% anyway. That's less than 19/1 'stack' odds!

I think it was also concluded that a lot of players generally lose money with these hands oop anyway.

Ste05

ntlbell wrote:

Ste's point is there is a lot of possible's out there and our villian obviously isn't afraid of any of them....

Couldn't have said it better myself

Samba

I don't mind playing these rags on occasion to mix it up but always do so in position and when you are getting a good price on the pot PF but even then i would prefer to open raise the pot rather than just limping or calling an EP raise that's been called in one or two spots.

You also do not want to be coming into these pots if you have aggro. players behind you.

As played I make a crying call and expect to be beat alot here.

Ste05 is on the ball he is not concerned about your hand which gives you alot to worry about

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ntlbell

UnLuckyLloyd wrote:

What was the OP's stats for the session? Get out of line at any point while at the table with the villain?

Hawk Eye wrote:

Villain is a 17/10 tag over a short sample.

It's in the OP

gerry87

If he had QQ/99, why would he not bet the flop? Surely he has to put a bet in on this flop at least to see where he is and not let someone with a low heart draw out on him. Is JhJx not a possibility here?

ntlbell

never mind, i'm an idiot.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ntlbell

UnLuckyLloyd wrote:

Not the villain - the OP (Hero). How has he been playing. I assume that I don't need to explain why that info helps us..?

Sorry! I misread the Q

Captain Tom

also,generally whenever i see these large over raises on the river it seems to be a huge hand about 90% of the time.

ntlbell

gerry87 wrote:

If he had QQ/99, why would he not bet the flop? Surely he has to put a bet in on this flop at least to see where he is and not let someone with a low heart draw out on him. Is JhJx not a possibility here?

I would of thought a TAG would bet the flop with JhJx and almost never shove the river on this board.

BuChan

checking the two pair on the suited board (or otherwise) is very strange, i'd certainly lead out there. was a check raise planned? i guess check raising him here would have looked like a bluff/semibluff and might have induced a reraise, was that the plan? on the river the only thing you can beat is a slowplayed flush, but i think it is quite possible that villian has this since it's a headsup pot and he might have been scared to bet it and frighten you off, depends on how he plays. you're fullhouse is pretty disguised since you didn't bet the flop, he could make this raise thinking you have trip 8s. it's tough but i think i'd call. are you going to post the results of this hand at any stage, it would be great to know.

Hawk Eye

UnLuckyLloyd wrote:

What was the OP's stats for the session? Get out of line at any point while at the table with the villain?

Attached my stats for that table but wasn't involved in any other big hands of note.
I've seen villain around a lot after this hand so I'm presuming he must have been a regular that changed his sn but was unaware of this at the time.
This probably gives it more credence that he's not gonna be bluff raising me here.

The Sheriff 101

Hawk Eye wrote:

But in this case with suited semi-connecters it's diffucult to know the correct implied odds. Maybe something like 9-10 times so in this case anything above 9*12=$108.

Sorry could someone explain this please.

Hawk Eye

The Sheriff 101 wrote:

Sorry could someone explain this please.

It's just the amount I need to make in the hand for it to be a profitable call preflop kinda like a cut-off point. Anything below this and my call from the big blind will be a losing play. So it was $12 to call his raise preflop and I just guessed that if I made 9 times this it would be a +EV play.
My numbers are probably way off I'm just making a very rough guess.
There's other things to factor in other than implied odds like how tight your opponent is and the stack sizes etc but it's important nonetheless.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Hawk Eye

Anywho I called and he had QQ.

cardshark202

Hawk Eye wrote:

Anywho I called and he had QQ.

I read good. ty