2000 Guineas

Colonel Sanders

Just looking at the mkt last night, with the doubts over teofilo now fading surely 5/2 is a more than fair price?

Robin1982

I agree. He's the standout horse in the race - 5/2 is big and I wouldn't be surprised if he starts at 13/8 or shorter.

I thought Haatef did quite well in the Dewhurst. If US Ranger gets supplemented he could well earn a place. Duke Of Marmalade seems to have the right breeding for this race.

But Teofilo looks a class apart.

Colonel Sanders

looking at betfair last night duke of marmalade doesn't run. I tink O'Brin had all his guineas eggs in the HRE basket so the coolmore horse for the race is surely US ranger.

I felt last year that Teofilo & HRE were head and shoulders ahead of the other 2yos. Just hope he doesn't stumble at the start this time.

I can't see him atarting anywhere near 5/2 on the day.

kincsem

Teofilo is bad value. He had a size advantage last year. He never showed much acceleration, and both Eagle Mountain and Holy Roman Emperor closed quickly on him in two races. He has now not trained fully for two weeks, and has not been tested at full speed since the scare.

I think Haatef will not be in the first three. He has only ran twice. His full siblings won mostly at 6f and afaik once at 7f.

I think Dutch Art might still contend. Also, Aidan O'Brien's horses are ignored, probably because they were not in the trials, or in the news. He was won this before without taking in a trial.

Colonel Sanders

his performance in the dewhurst was very special. to lose as much ground at the start as he did and still win was something else. And when HRE headed him inside the last 100yadrs he really stuck his head out and battled gamely. I'm a big bolger fan so hope he really has the next nijinsky on his hands.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

wb

Not very original, and I could be accused of following hype, but I think Teofilo is still the one to beat this season. The fact that such a fuss was made about a very minor setback shows how important this horse is. Likewise, Finscéal Beo is one of the best fillies around too. I know that 3-y-o horses often flop, but Bolger is a great trainer, and is rightly excited about these two.

easytiger!

kincsem wrote:

Teofilo is bad value. He had a size advantage last year. He never showed much acceleration, and both Eagle Mountain and Holy Roman Emperor closed quickly on him in two races. He has now not trained fully for two weeks, and has not been tested at full speed since the scare.

Not sure about this, in the interview Bolger gave to RTE during the week he made reference to the sectional time for the middle 8 furlongs of the Dewhurst which was well above average, and that was after being slow away(can't find the specific quote). Could the argument also be made as a big two year-old that he'll develop more power as he fills out? He certainly looked bull-strong behind the saddle in the RTE clip.

Robin1982

kincsem wrote:

...He never showed much acceleration, and both Eagle Mountain and Holy Roman Emperor closed quickly on him in two races. He has now not trained fully for two weeks, and has not been tested at full speed since the scare...

Hmmm, not sure I agree with that either. He easily outsprinted HRE in the National Stakes off a slow pace and in the Dewhurst he ran a huge speed figure, despite having to quicken twice at both ends of a strongly-paced race - something I see very rarely.

We can only speculate on his fitness (or lack thereof) come Guineas day, but for those who are waiting to back him, I understood that next Wednesday will be his final serious workout - so watch the markets then. Once I heard Bolger describe the "hiccup" as a possible (albeit small) overreach, alarm bells were ringing as overreaches (from what I understand) can take quite some time to recover from.

kincesm wrote:

...I think Haatef will not be in the first three. He has only ran twice. His full siblings won mostly at 6f and afaik once at 7f...

You know a good deal more about breeding that I do but I thought Haatef got the trip and ran quite well in the 7f Dewhurst for such an inexperienced looking colt. KP seems bullish but I don't think he'd ever beat Teofilo.

kincesm wrote:

...I think Dutch Art might still contend...

Dutch Art is the one horse I can't see placing. Such a lightly built colt - he seems like such a sprinter but yet was well beaten by Major Cadeaux (who I don't fancy either). We'll have to wait and see.

easytiger wrote:

...in the interview Bolger gave to RTE during the week he made reference to the sectional time for the middle 8 furlongs of the Dewhurst which was well above average, and that was after being slow away(can't find the specific quote)...

He said that both Teofilo and HRE completed the middle 5f of the Dewhurst in 57.99 if I remember correctly. Many speed figure compilers rated his performance as exceptional, for instance...

nick mordin wrote:

TEOFILO DOES THE IMPOSSIBLE

TEOFILO (41) lost ground at the start of the Dewhurst Stakes and then he rallied when headed in the closing stages to score. That's basically impossible according to a test I ran using Raceform Interactive software. It turns out that there have been quite a few horses which have won maiden races against equally inexperienced rivals by rallying after losing ground at the start. There have also been a few long distance events (twelve furlongs plus) where this has occurred – and many more over jumps. But there has never been a Group race, not even a Listed race, run anywhere in Europe over the last eleven years over less than twelve furlongs where a horse has earned form book comments such as 'dwelt', 'off slow', 'slow into stride' as well as 'rallied' and won or even reached the first four. It requires that a horse makes two huge moves – one early and one late. And that's just too much to ask – except it seems for Teofilo.

And Teofilo wasn't winning just any pattern race. He won a red hot Group 1 where he was up against HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (41), a horse that had run as fast as any two year old in the past five years according to my speed ratings.

If Teofilo was ever going to get beat it was in this race where he encountered what should have been insurmountable obstacles and was up against a brilliant rival. He really should have lost but somehow he found a way to win.

Teofilo clocked a faster time than the winner of the Challenge Stakes over the same course and distance. Again that's pretty much impossible, but he did it, earning the biggest speed rating I've give a two year old beyond five furlongs since Xaar took this race back in 1997. Xaar of course didn't really train on. But he wasn't that big, and it's a good rule of thumb that the bigger a two year old is the more likely it is to train on. Teofilo is huge, and he's already running fast enough to win Group 1 races against three year olds, so he doesn't need to improve at all.

36 years ago, a horse called Nijinsky won all five of his two year old races, culminating with a win in the Dewhurst Stakes. Teofilo has now emulated Nijinsky at two and he's got the physique, the pedigree, and I suspect the ability to emulate him at three as well. Jim Bolger has said that if Teofilo shows him he wants to go for the Triple Crown he'll let him. So could we be about to see a horse turn back the clock to a time when the best horses didn't specialize in a narrow range of distances? I hate to tempt fate but I do rather think so...

kincsem

Why I think Haatef won’t win the 2000 Guineas

His full siblings didn’t stay a mile
Haatef / Ulfah / Walayef - Danzig (7.9f) - Sayedat Alhadh (Mr Prospector (8.7f))
His full sisters Ulfah and Walayef failed to win over further than 7f.
Ulfah had 4 wins at 6f from 12 starts. All the wins were on good/firm. On her one attempt at 7f she was 9th of 9 beaten 14 ½ lengths.
Walayef won 3 times from 6 starts, two wins at 6f, one at 7f. In her one race over 8f she was 9th of 9 beaten 13 lengths.

He was “held up”In the Dewhurst Stakes last year four horses had the comment “held up” in their comments in running – Haatef (4th) by Danzig(7.9f); Dubai Builder (10th) by Tobougg (7.2f); Prime Defender (11th) by Bertolini (6.6f); Hamoody (13th) by Johannesburg (7.8f). Note the low average winning distances of the offspring of these sires. Held up due to stamina doubts about lasting the 7f distance?

He had a favourable draw in the Dewhurst
I think Haatef was favoured by the draw, and that partly explains his 4th place finish. Horses drawn low filled most of the top places.
Finish: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
Stalls: 4, 9, 5, 7, 3, 1, 11, 8, 10, 2, 13, 12, 6, 15, 14

Haatef has Danzig as his sire
Aidan O’Brien when discussing his 3-y-o Astronomer Royal (by Danzig) said “being by Danzig you are never sure he will get 1m.”

Haatef has Mr Prospector as his damsire
Horses with Mr Prospector as their sire or damsire (Haatef) mature early.
They often feature in the top rated 2-y-o list in the Irish Turform annual, but seldom in the 3-y-o or 4-y-o+ lists.
For the years 1992 to 2006:- 2-y-o (21 horses); 3-y-o and 4-y-o+ (8 horses).
There are 200% as many horses listed in the 3-y-o and 4-y-o+ lists (two lists V one list), but only 40% as many Mr Prospector.

Was this because the horses were retired or sold abroad after their 2-y-o career? I don’t think so. I believe many fail to maintain their high rating as 3-y-o+.

83% of Mr Prospector’s foals worldwide were runners (21 crops), and 23% were 2-y-o winners, which works out at 28% of his 2-y-o runners won.

Although I pointed out later that the filly Lailani (whose damsire was Mr Prospector) won seven races in a row from 8f to 12f including the irish oaks as a 3-y-o.

And the draw at Newmarket is not imo a course bias but a pace bias. Haatef was on the right side of the field.

ChuckProphet

is there any of the 5/2 left about teofilo? best i can see is 9/4

Robin1982

5/2 (3.5) with Ladbrokes.

Current market on Betfair 3.70 - 3.75 (close to 11/4)

Note that these are still ante-post markets - you lose your money if the horse doesn't start.

masterK

It's hard to get away from Teofilo on what he's done to date. I'd find it difficult to side with Adagio considering he was so soundly beaten by Teofilo in the Dewhurst.

US Ranger could be anything if he races, his 4 wins to date have all been in races run to suit when the opposition wasn't up to much.

It's interesting Jamie Spencer rides Diamon Tycoon who won a Newbury maiden in a decent time, I would guess Spencer had other options in the race.

Mount Nelson could have place prospects at huge prices on the exchanges if he runs, he won a decent trial in France last season.

ChuckProphet

Robin1982 wrote:

5/2 (3.5) with Ladbrokes.

Current market on Betfair 3.70 - 3.75 (close to 11/4)

Note that these are still ante-post markets - you lose your money if the horse doesn't start.

i take it the ante post finishes friday morning??
i wonder will he still be 5/2 then

Robin1982

masterK wrote:

...US Ranger could be anything if he races, his 4 wins to date have all been in races run to suit when the opposition wasn't up to much...

His Prix Djebel victory - highly impressive visually but the time was quite slow and returned low speed figures. Quite a significant amount of money on him.

masterK wrote:

...Mount Nelson could have place prospects at huge prices on the exchanges if he runs, he won a decent trial in France last season...

Quite true and it was this horse (albeit more for the Derby) that Fallon was raving about at the start of the year.

Chuck Prophet wrote:

...i take it the ante post finishes friday morning??
i wonder will he still be 5/2 then...

Around then.

Hmmm, just been looking at Betfair's market. Seems like the last couple of days have seen Teofilo being consistently layed (even above 5.0). Even the current market this morning has seen quite a drift; currently trading 3.85 - 3.90.

Fishy.

fade2black

Fallon also thought Hitchcock was going to be a machine, those jocks are never the best judges.

As for Spencer, I have a feeling that the well is starting to run a little dry for him. Not as dry as your average jock, but it's getting there.

Colonel Sanders

teofilo's price is up and down like a wh ore's knickers on betfair. The over round before the 5 day decs was about 115% whereas after was aroun the 100 mark so drifts now are not as worrying as before the 5 days.

Bolger says he worked well sunday, he's the one to beat IMO

rag2gar

So lads whos Kieren fallon going to be on then? LOL. Havnt had a bet on this race (which im very disapointed with myself over!) and looking to do one tonight. I see teofilo is still 5/2, should I back him at this stage? Would like to do an ew bet too for the race and was thinking of doing dutch art ew, opinions please (particularly kincsem-as he knows this game a lot better than me) on the two bets...

easytiger!

fade2black wrote:

As for Spencer, I have a feeling that the well is starting to run a little dry for him. Not as dry as your average jock, but it's getting there.

His well seemed to runneth over at Ascot today?

ChuckProphet

what's peoples thoughts on o'briens 3 runners and jockey bookings? hard to ignore his record in the race, even if these are basically a 2nd string

kincsem

WIN
Strategic Prince ... €25 at 19
Duke Of Marmalade ... €3 at 38
Eagle Mountain ... €534 at 133

PLACE
Eagle Mountain ... €61 at 13

Lost €225 when Mount Nelson withdrawn. Won €84 when Teofilo withdrawn.

Golden rule of betting. Big odds, big bet. I might be totally wrong. Fingers crossed.

As you know aftertiming gets you banned :rolleyes:

Tony

Sorry if this is a dumb/newbie question but does anyone know why the place market for the 2k guineas is suspended on betfair?

Colonel Sanders

are you looking at the ante post market? its now closed and a day of the race market open.

if it is the dau of race market I don't know.

Tony

Quite possible i was looking at the AP page, its open now anyway , thanks for the reply

ChuckProphet

my bets for the guineas

2000
Strategic Prince WIN
Duke of Marmalade E/W

1000
Indian Ink WIN
Arch swing WIN

jimmyboy

i'm gonna go E/W with Eagle Mountain.

semibluff

is this useless info??

in the mirror today, boyesports stand to lose a fortune if the cork trained horse Odds r Evens (or something simular to this) wins.

There has been 36k€ placed on this horse moving it from 50/1 into 33/1 with them.

What do we think?

seand333

dutch art for me, currently 14/1 paddypower, lost last time out, but trainer adamant needed the race

Colonel Sanders

semibluff wrote:

is this useless info??

in the mirror today, boyesports stand to lose a fortune if the cork trained horse Odds r Evens (or something simular to this) wins.

There has been 36k€ placed on this horse moving it from 50/1 into 33/1 with them.

What do we think?

they're lying. Boyles would barely lay you 36 euro on a 50/1 shot.

Sizzler

Ive gone for Spencer on Diamond Tycoon for the place and Haatef for the win, plenty of confidence coming out of the Prendergast stable for this lad by all accounts

Colonel Sanders

teofilo would have eaten that lot for breakfast. so would have HRE.

one thing I noticed just before the cheltenham festival was that cockney rebel was being matched at around the 14/1 mark on betfair when he was 40/1 with the bookies.

kincsem

Colonel Sanders wrote:

teofilo would have eaten that lot for breakfast. so would have HRE.

one thing I noticed just before the cheltenham festival was that cockney rebel was being matched at around the 14/1 mark on betfair when he was 40/1 with the bookies.

I think that was the fourth fastest time 1m 35.28s.
Mister Baileys record, set in 1994, was 1m 35.08s
So what time would Teofilo run?
More hype.
Races are run on the racecourse, not on paper (or computers).

Two tenths of a second is one length.
Todays race winner was a length behind the record.

mdwexford

kincsem wrote:

I think that was the fourth fastest time 1m 35.28s.
Mister Baileys record, set in 1994, was 1m 35.08s
So what time would Teofilo run?
More hype.
Races are run on the racecourse, not on paper (or computers).

Two tenths of a second is one length.
Todays race winner was a length behind the record.

Teofilo would have won easily as would Holy Roman Emperor imo.

id say coolmore are raging, they managed to get 4th and 5th with 2 pigs, HRE was a mile clear of them and would undoubtedly have won. If only they had known Teofilo wasnt gonna line up his stud career would surely have been put on hold till after the race.

roll on the St. James Palace where Teofilo will show hes the best 3yo miler in training

Colonel Sanders

still don't understand how people can still say Teofilo is a hype horse. People on betfair have been saying it all winter too. He won 2 G1's last year and twice beat a very good 2 yo in HRE who won the phoenix stakes pulling hand springs.

kincsem

You haven't answered my question about the near record time by the winner of the 2000 Guineas - just 0.2 seconds outside the record.
What you are saying is Teofilo would probably have broken the 2000 Guineas record (a race almost 200 years old).
His reputation is built on his win in the Dewhurst. But after the 2000 Guineas the Dewhurst form does not look that good.

Dewhurst
The horses Teofilo beat in the Dewhurst (good/soft) did not do very well in the 2000 Guineas.
3 Strategic Prince ... [8th]
4 Haatef ................ [10th]
5 Vital Equine ......... [2nd]
7 Adagio ............... [12th]
11 Prime Defender .... [20th]
14 Halicarnassus ...... [17th]

York
The form of the Champagne Stakes (good) looks better
1 Vital Equine ............. [2nd]
2 Eagle Mountain ........ [5th]
3 Cockney Rebel ......... [1st]

11111 before Teofilo's name looked good, but three of those were ... head, head, neck. A bit like the 11111111 before Hector Protector's name before he ran in the Derby.

Teofilo is out of the Derby. I doubt we will see him again.

Morgans

Teofilo is not a hype horse. He was posting all sorts of ratings, including time ratings that would suggest that he need not have raced to his best to win on Saturday. If he had to break the 2000guineas record to win the race so be it.

Arkle doesnt have many time records yet is clearly the best horse to wear shoes, and people who just use time alone to justify their opinion to me miss the bigger issue. Vital Equine did finish fifth in the Dewhurst. Did i miss something?

Coolmore might end up with Teofilo in stud as I'd guess its even money that he will race again.

I would say he was hyped as much as Finsceal Beo was.

Colonel Sanders

Finsceal beo broke the record today suggesting that the ground is riding v fast.

If teofilo ever ran again against cockney rebel i know who i'd be backing, maybe i'lll be proved wrong but thats my opinion

Taff

By the time Teofilo returns I think a mile will be too sharp for him.

Pity he missed the race as racing needs it's superstars - it's the media who hype them.

I'm sure Cockney Rebel will prove to be an above average Guineas winner though.

:-)

Colonel Sanders

I'm not taking anything away from Cockney rebel. He won well and there was no fluke about it either.

RP ratings have only rated him an average classic winner and both Teofilo and HRE were anything but average G1 2yo winners.

kincsem

Colonel Sanders wrote:

Finsceal beo broke the record today suggesting that the ground is riding v fast.

If teofilo ever ran again against cockney rebel i know who i'd be backing, maybe i'lll be proved wrong but thats my opinion

She is good. The ground is fast. If you read the Racing Post you would have also told me the 1000 Guineas was wind-assisted.

Surely you would need to know the price before you back a horse?

Colonel Sanders

fair enough. Just saying I wouldn't bet on cockney rebel beating him unless it was a massive rick.