The Race is On

is_that_so

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=NEWS-qqqs=news-qqqid=22937-qqqx=1.asp

Political support for Fine Gael has surged by 4 per cent since last month, leaving the general election race neck and neck and handing the momentum to the largest opposition party.

This month’s Sunday Business Post/RedC tracking poll is encouraging news for Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny and will concern Taoiseach Bertie Ahern as he prepares to call the election in the coming weeks.

Support for Fianna Fail drops by 1 per cent from last month to 35 per cent, leaving the party facing substantial seat losses and in danger of losing its first election since 1982.

This is the third successive monthly fall in support for Fianna Fail. By contrast, Fine Gael has consistently gained support since the start of the year.

Labour drops 1 per cent to 11 per cent. The combined totals for Fine Gael/Labour and for Fianna Fail/PDs are now identical, at 38 per cent.

Voters continue to turn to the Green Party, reflecting increased concern with environmental issues and the growing political strength of the party.

Sinn Fein drops by 2 per cent, while the Progressive Democrats remain static at 3 per cent.

The poll was conducted among 1,261 voters across the country between Monday and Wednesday of last week.

The weeks since the last poll have seen both the Fianna Fail and Fine Gael ard-fheiseanna take place, while all parties have stepped up political activity in anticipation of the coming elect ion. The voters continue to show some volatility, however, as there is an increase of 5 per cent to 20 per cent in the ‘‘undecideds’’.

Voters say they support the nurses’ claims for pay increases and shorter working hours, although an overwhelming majority say the nurses should pursue their demands through the benchmarking process.

The poll shows significant - though minority - support for the government position, with more than four out of ten of those polled saying that the nurses’ demands should be resisted.

State of the parties

Fianna Fail 35% (-1%)
Fine Gael 27% (+4%)
Labour 11% (-1%)
Greens 9% (+1%)
Sinn Fein 8% (-2%)
PDs 3% (no change)
Independents 7% (-1%)

Even though "grandpa" Bertie hasn't made up his mind the race is very definitely on. In fact at this point I'd wonder if leaving it any longer than May is not going to go against the incumbents.
Whatever way it works out there certainly seems to be an actual choice this time round.

spanner

gald to see that the Independents are going down, I really dont see the point of voting for Independents, it seems when they get into a position of power all they do is hold the government to ransom to gain more money for their part of country, I Really would not feel voting for Independents will actually change anything in the country

johnnyskeleton

spanner wrote:

gald to see that the Independents are going down, I really dont see the point of voting for Independents, it seems when they get into a position of power all they do is hold the government to ransom to gain more money for their part of country, I Really would not feel voting for Independents will actually change anything in the country

It depends on the candidate. For example, Joe Higgins is considered an independent for the purposes of the above, and like him or loathe him, he could hardly be accused of holding the government to ransom, nor could he be accused of trying to get more money for his part of the country. He does, however, represent his constituency very well, even going to prison on their behalf (the bin charges).

So depending on the candidate, an independent can be very good because if, for example, you vote for an independent because he is against one specific issue (let's say motor tax), you can believe that he will spend all his time in the Dáil on that issue much more than a party stooge who, if asked where he stands on it, says "Our party is committed to lowering motor tax" just to get your vote, but never follows through on it.

spanner

johnnyskeleton wrote:

It depends on the candidate. For example, Joe Higgins is considered an independent for the purposes of the above, and like him or loathe him, he could hardly be accused of holding the government to ransom, nor could he be accused of trying to get more money for his part of the country. He does, however, represent his constituency very well, even going to prison on their behalf (the bin charges).

So depending on the candidate, an independent can be very good because if, for example, you vote for an independent because he is against one specific issue (let's say motor tax), you can believe that he will spend all his time in the Dáil on that issue much more than a party stooge who, if asked where he stands on it, says "Our party is committed to lowering motor tax" just to get your vote, but never follows through on it.

thats true I would agree with you that some independent canidates can be very good,very honourable and act as good watchdogs on the government like Tony Gregory but what real change can come by voting for them.

I am going to vote for F.G. because I think that will make a change in the way the country is run

Time Magazine

Bah, didn't see this thread. Copied and pasted from now deleted other thread.



Historically, FG have been under-represented by opinion polls by the order of about 4%, as research from the TCD Political Science department indicates:

http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/IOPA/Data_for_IOPA_website_files/Slide0002.gif (107kb)

Take the last election in mid-2002 as a case in point, FG clock in around 17% yet they polled 21%. The figures from the polls may indicate this. IMS are an established body who (presumably) are part of the group that have historically under-represented FG. On the other hand Red C are new, presumably have different methods, and derive a figure of 27% for FG - 4% higher than the IMS poll - precisely the amount FG tend to be under-represented.

This difference is absolutely fecking gigantic in electoral terms. FG fell from 27.9% in 2002 and lost 23 seats. Thus with 27% at the polls and a pretty strong transfer pact with Labour (and implicitly the Greens), it's reasonable to expect FG to gain at least 20 seats in the upcoming election. That puts them at 51-55 seats. Labour are expected to get 23-26 (plus 3-6 seats) and the Greens are expected to get about 10 (plus 4 seats). These are, by all accounts, reasonable estimates if FG poll 27%. These put an FG/Lab/Green coalition on 84-91 seats, i.e. exactly either side of a majority government.

The difference is really whether FG can get those 55 seats. It's very marginal, 2 or 3 extra seats at the expense of FF/Ind candidates could be the difference between the rainbow or some mixed bag of FF/PD/Ind or the like. It's up to the voters now. If even 1 more person per 100 in the country vote FG and bring them to 28%, we will have a new government.

It's going to be tight. Choose your vote carefully.

gilroyb

I think you might have to temper your enthusiasm somewhat Ibid, for FG even returning to the same percentage as they had received before 2002 will be unlikely to get them the same number of seats as they lost their incumbent advantage in a number of areas, meaning that though the national vote share may be the same, it is likely more dispersed than before, making it harder to drag in those last few all important seats from tight constituencies. Not saying they wont be the next government, just that when the election is this tight, it's probably best to build up your estimates from the constituencies, rather than down from national polls.


There are a number of interesting articles in today's Business Post, here's a quote from the 'back room' section.

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=BACK+ROOM-qqqm=nav-qqqid=22920-qqqx=1.asp

Taking the odds offered by various spread-betters and bookies (before publication of today’s Sunday Business Post/ Red C poll), one could reasonably predict the following seat count for each party: Fianna Fail 70, Fine Gael 44, Labour 22, Sinn Fein 10, Progressive Democrats 5,Green Party 10, Independents 5.What would those figures mean if they were realised?

The current government would, with just 75 seats, be well short of the 83 needed for a majority. That would be the end of the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats government. The alternative, Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party, with 76 seats, would also fall short of what would be needed. Together, Fianna Fail and the Greens would have 80 seats: that might be enough, but could be tricky. Fianna Fail and Labour would, with a combined 92 seats, have a secure majority.

Time Magazine

gilroyb wrote:

incumbent advantage

I accept this point, but argue that a strong, formal transfer pact will have a strong sway, too. My vote will go FG, FG, Lab, Green, for example. Now in my constituency FG will only hold one seat so I'm doing it more on principle than actual impact. Nationwide, however, the impact could be really quite strong.

gilroyb

I'll be interested to see how the transfers go, but I'm not sure that the formal pact will make that much of a difference in transfers nationally. What I mean is, FG voters are generally likely to transfer to someone other than FF anyway, and being realistic it was never that likely to be SF. In some constituencies it may have been the PDs, but their support appears to have dropped anyway, and even then, if a voter was going to transfer to the PDs, I'd say only a marginal number of these otherwise PD voters will change to vote for Labour. Even without the explicit pact I think that Labour could have hoped for FG transfers.

As for Labour to FG, I think there will be greater leakage here, with a number of Labour voters still being reticent to vote for the blueshirts, with their transfers going to FF/Greens/and SF. Also, as you pointed out yourself, there are a number of constituencies where even if voters do make a point of voting in the rainbow ticket, their ability to actually have an impact is limited. I know of one constituency in Dublin where strong transfers would be useful for FG, but I have not heard the Labour people on the doors suggesting explicitly that Labour transfers should go to FG.

Don't get me wrong though, I do think the pact is going to have a big effect on the election, just that I think the effect will come from presenting the parties as credible before the election, rather than giving then significantly stronger (than they would have otherwise been) transfers in the election.

Jonny Arson

Well at least it appears the final nail has been hammered into the FF/PD government and there wont be enough independents to prevent that. I know polls are only polls but in tandem from I've heard from canvassers and other websites, the signs are getting uncomfortably ominous for Ahern and co. FG/Lab still have alot of work ahead of them but they have the momentum.

It's going to be close, too close, so close I think there's an increasing possibilty of a hung dail unless Labour commit political suicide going into bed with FF.