Help me do a EV calc please

pok3rplaya

OK I wanna do some calculations on 4betting and the like but I suck at this kinda of stuff and even though I've been sitting here for ages wracking my brains I cant get anywhere. So I'm gonna lay it out here and see what develops.

Basically what I want to look at is this situation:


100NL, 100bb stacks

folds to us on the button and we raise to $4 with AK. The small blind folds and the big blind reraises to $15. He is a good player and his range at this point is AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AQ/AJ/KQ.

What I want to analyse is the EV of us 4bet raising to $40.



Now...

If he pushes we will call with our AK and according to pokerstove our equity is 40% {if we give him a range of AA/KK/QQ/AK}

The other possibile thing that can happen is that he folds and we win the pot straight away.

Remember he reraises us with the following hands:

AA - 6 combinations
KK - 6 combinations
QQ - 6 combinations
JJ - 6 combinations
TT - 6 combinations
AK - 16 combinations
AQ - 16 combinations
AJ - 16 combinations
KQ - 16 combinations

---

Total: 94 combinations

Of these hands he will fold the following when we 4bet:

JJ - 6 combinations
TT - 6 combinations
AQ - 16 combinations
AJ - 16 combinations
KQ - 16 combinations

---

Total: 60 combinations

so he folds 64% of the time and he pushes 36% of the time.


This is the part where my head gets fried. Could someone please come up with a formula I can plug this stuff into and come out with an expected value? Thanks for any responses this boring thread gets.

phantom_lord

did u read this thread btw?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=9761689&an=0&page=0#Post9761689

pok3rplaya

Good find. I still don't understand how to work out our EV once we call his push. I understand how to know when to call.

sikes

=SUM(0.64*(19.5)+0.36*(0.4*(100.5)+0.6*(-96)))

6.216

.64(win blinds + our bet + his 3bet) + `.36 (.4(double up and sb) + .6(lose our remaining stack))

Shadowless

pok3rplaya wrote:

OK I wanna do some calculations on 4betting and the like but I suck at this kinda of stuff and even though I've been sitting here for ages wracking my brains I cant get anywhere. So I'm gonna lay it out here and see what develops.

Basically what I want to look at is this situation:


100NL, 100bb stacks

folds to us on the button and we raise to $4 with AK. The small blind folds and the big blind reraises to $15. He is a good player and his range at this point is AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AQ/AJ/KQ.

What I want to analyse is the EV of us 4bet raising to $40.



Now...

If he pushes we will call with our AK and according to pokerstove our equity is 40% {if we give him a range of AA/KK/QQ/AK}

The other possibile thing that can happen is that he folds and we win the pot straight away.

Remember he reraises us with the following hands:

AA - 3 combinations
KK - 3 combinations
QQ - 6 combinations
JJ - 6 combinations
TT - 6 combinations
AK - 9 combinations
AQ - 12 combinations
AJ - 12 combinations
KQ - 12 combinations

---

Total: 69 combinations

Of these hands he will fold the following when we 4bet:

JJ - 6 combinations
TT - 6 combinations
AQ - 12 combinations
AJ - 12 combinations
KQ - 12 combinations

---

Total: 48 combinations

so he folds 70% of the time and he pushes 30% of the time.


This is the part where my head gets fried. Could someone please come up with a formula I can plug this stuff into and come out with an expected value? Thanks for any responses this boring thread gets.

You hold AK, you must take this into account when your working out combinations.

Using the same formula as above this gives you an EV of

70%*(19.5) + 30%*(40%*100.5 + 60%*-96)

= 8.43

Just a small change but might as well do the thing properly!

robinlacey

nice link phantom lord,this kind of stuff makes my head hurt but i'll try to get around to reading it eventually.

i remember someone on twoplustwo a while ago saying they had played around with ev calculations vs various ranges and had concluded that you should never fold AK preflop in a 100bb deep hand,i can't remember who it was but i took it to be gospel and have used it to justify loads of possibly dubious decisions since.

phantom_lord

Shadowless wrote:

You hold AK, you must take this into account when your working out combinations.

Using the same formula as above this gives you an EV of

70%*(19.5) + 30%*(40%*100.5 + 60%*-96)

= 8.43

Just a small change but might as well do the thing properly!

if you're gonna adjust the likelihood of ak, why not kq and all the other ax hands?

Shadowless

phantom_lord wrote:

if you're gonna adjust the likelihood of ak, why not kq and all the other ax hands?

eh...I did?:rolleyes:

Ste05

robinlacey wrote:

i remember someone on twoplustwo a while ago saying they had played around with ev calculations vs various ranges and had concluded that you should never fold AK preflop in a 100bb deep hand,i can't remember who it was but i took it to be gospel and have used it to justify loads of possibly dubious decisions since.

If you ever get time after your marathon "well" session, I'd love to see this link. Or does P_L, our 2+2 watchman, know where it is

phantom_lord

oops.

carry on...

robinlacey

i don't think it was a particularly noteworthy post,it was just an offhand comment made by someone,i seem to remember it was a fairly well respected poster though...

pok3rplaya

Shadowless wrote:

You hold AK, you must take this into account when your working out combinations.

Using the same formula as above this gives you an EV of

70%*(19.5) + 30%*(40%*100.5 + 60%*-96)

= 8.43

Just a small change but might as well do the thing properly!

Excellent this is just what I was looking for thanks. I'm gonna play around with this now and see what I come up with.

redzerdrog

pok3rplaya wrote:

Excellent this is just what I was looking for thanks. I'm gonna play around with this now and see what I come up with.

please let us know your findings. I get far to confused when i try these they put me on tilt.

fuzzbox

Lets denote :
E - our equity in $ if called
P - probability of opponent folding
Pot - pot including our last bet

Now :

EV = P*Pot + ((1-P)E - our bet)
If you are interested in breakeven point you need to solve it for EV = 0
The solution is :

P = (ourbet - E) / (Pot - E)

The problem is that you have to know your equity to calculate breakeven probability of opponent folding.
For the sake of simplifying the calculations lets assume your equity is in fact 40% when called. Then :

Pot if called = 680, E = 272$
Pot = 326 + 28 + 60 = 414$
our bet = 306$

P = (306$ - 272$) / (414$ - 272$) = 0.239 = 24%

Hitman Actual

fuzzbox wrote:

Lets denote :
E - our equity in $ if called
P - probability of opponent folding
Pot - pot including our last bet

Now :

EV = P*Pot + ((1-P)E - our bet)
If you are interested in breakeven point you need to solve it for EV = 0
The solution is :

P = (ourbet - E) / (Pot - E)

The problem is that you have to know your equity to calculate breakeven probability of opponent folding.
For the sake of simplifying the calculations lets assume your equity is in fact 40% when called. Then :

Pot if called = 680, E = 272$
Pot = 326 + 28 + 60 = 414$
our bet = 306$

P = (306$ - 272$) / (414$ - 272$) = 0.239 = 24%

Is this the calc for how often the opponent must fold for a raise to be profitable?

fuzzbox

lenny_leonard wrote:

Is this the calc for how often the opponent must fold for a raise to be profitable?

Yes, the last part is ... but the first part =>

EV = P*Pot + ((1-P)E - our bet)


Is an EV calc.