Tournament stacksize question

a147pro

2nd last table MTT. Payout 6 buy-ins for next 3 places then begins doubling as normal. 7 handed.

You : 48,000
Him : 56,000 (both around average)

Blinds 2500 / 5000

You've been playing with him about 45 mins. In that time you've flat called a raise with AQ, lead at a Q high flop and called a check raise all in. The only other play of note is when he pushed a significant button raise by you to his BB and you folded. We can presume he's tight enough if you haven't otherwise seen a hand. We've reached the stage of the tournament when most hands end pre-flop or are all in pre flop.

Folded to you in SB. You raise to 15,000.
BB thinks for a few seconds then pushes.

1. What (if anything) do you fold here?

And generally;

2. What is the minimum amount of blinds you need (to have) to raise without pushing?

3. What is the minimum amount of blinds you need (to have) to raise more than the minimum but still be willing to fold (i.e. to bet 3BBs but fold to a push)?

I should also point out this is online.

dvdfan

Youve only 10BB left, im either pushing all in or folding unless you have a hand strong enough that you want to invite a push.

If you raise now and fold to a RR your folding equity has drastically decreased and your in trouble as youve only 6bb left after folding, 7 handed. Your getting 3/1 so your range should be pretty wide giving the stack youll be left with, the worst hands you can be up against are 2 undercards to a higher pair or lower pair vs higher pair, my calling range now is very wide unless your confident your one of the above. The likes of AX,Kx,Qx,Jx, suited connectors and any pair are good here i would think.

Also raising 2x when blinds are this big will have the same effect as raising 3x but youd need 14+bb to be comfortable doing that

Hitman Actual

Is this a bubble hand? Or are you currently in the money with the same prize for if you get knocked out?

In general I think people play too loose in situations like these; remember that just because a call may be +CEV, it might not be +$EV. So my recomendations probably appear quite tight. Also, my ranges are based on bubble hands in 6-max STTs (calculated using the ICM model), so they need adjusting depending on the payout structure here.

a147pro wrote:

1. What (if anything) do you fold here?

Against a tight player (one who pushes with 99+, AJ+), you should really only be calling with TT+, AQ+. Against a loose player (pushes 40% of hands), call with 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J9s, A2o+, K5o+, Q9o+, JTo.

a147pro wrote:

2. What is the minimum amount of blinds you need to raise without pushing?

If you can get away with 2x or 2.5x raises, go for it. But 3x is standard. Remember that your stack size is important as well; once your stack is >10-12BBs, just open-push playable hands. Against tight players push everything. Against looser callers, tighten up to pushing 22+, A4s+, A7o+, KTs+, KJo+ (and a few other broadway type hands).

a147pro wrote:

3. What is the minimum amount of blinds you need to raise more than the minimum but still be willing to fold (i.e. to bet 3BBs but fold to a push)?

Don't leave yourself with <8BBs if you have to fold. In your example hand, I think open-pushing is better, especially as you think the BB is tight.

a147pro

Thanks lads. Just wondering, as per the edit of the post, how may blinds you have to have left in order to raise to 3BBs and fold to a reraise.

I presume about 12 minimum?

Hitman Actual

11 or 12 is about right.

dvdfan

lenny_leonard wrote:

Against a tight player (one who pushes with 99+, AJ+), you should really only be calling with TT+, AQ+.

I know the OP has hes question answered but i was wondering about this situation. You have invested 1/3 of your stack he re-raises all in and your getting about 3/1 to call. Your calling range is correct here if someone open pushed on us.

Say we have T9o, its well outside the calling range but if we fold were down to 6 BB and shortstacked. Any open push after this in late position is likely to to be called more lightly because theyll expect our range to be very wide and considering this big stack is going to be acting after him hes folding equity has to be diminished. So if we dont pick up a good hand soon were going to be in trouble.

If the OP wants a shot at one of the bigger prizes i think folding here is giving that up. So if were up against AK or AQ here were 1.7/1 so thats a nice edge as were getting 3/1 to call. If were up against a PP were about 4/1 and not ideal obviously but is it not a close decision here because if you win here your going to have one of the big stacks and a great a shot at one of the better prizes.

This situation is only brought about because we made a mistake and didnt open push or fold but as played is calling with 9To or similar all that bad here if we want a big prize or is my thinking flawed???

Hitman Actual

You make a good point, and it's one I haven't really considered, because against a tight player I would have open-pushed anyway.

Some qualifiers for my calling range: it's for the 6-max STT bubble situation where you're in the SB with a similar stack as the BB (~10BBs), and the button has folded. It's an ICM calc for the standard 65/35 split. So it's quite a different situation to what the OP is asking.

Edit: Anyway, having 6BBs is still worth a certain amount of prize pool equity. So I think the question is does calling as a big dog cost you more in prize pool equity than what the 6BB is worth.

a147pro

I definitely should have open pushed, though that effectively lets luck decide. TBH I couldn't see him pushing over me with nothing so the best I could hope for was a coin flip, I hadn't been over active robbing blinds and neither had he, but I felt so crap after folding cos he had effectively made half his now sizeable stack by repushing me. Which is of course good poker.

I held QJ and I know prob 95% posters insta call with this hand. But I had been playing 4 hours and was coming off a long losing streak in MTTs (about 8 without cashing) from being on a good run of cashing in 5 of about 8. I couldn't see him pushing with Q high there, not given our history, so if I'm lucky I'm a slight dog (v.PP), to a 60-40 dog to unlucky and dominated. MUTBS but its my experience that at that stage of the tournies tightening up pays off. I presume cos players start pushing so much that both push and call ranges open up hugely. Sitting tight, if you can afford it, works as others will got knocked out relatively quickly, and your raises get more respect. Push good hands and try to get the better side of the coin flips.

The only time I call there is if I know I'm against a v good player (who will know that the bet, rather than push, may = weakness) or a v. bad player whose range is much wider. I just put him as the standard TAG you see at the end of big entry MTTS.

I busted next round with AK against KQ.

Hitman Actual

a147pro wrote:

I definitely should have open pushed, though that effectively lets luck decide.

It's not really luck at all, as you usually pick up the 7.5K in blinds in that spot, which is not to be sniffed at. That's where the profitability comes from. And you should only run into a hand that will call you about 5% of the time. And when you do get called, you still have a certain amount of equity in the pot.

a147pro

lenny_leonard wrote:

It's not really luck at all, as you usually pick up the 7.5K in blinds in that spot, which is not to be sniffed at. That's where the profitability comes from. And you should only run into a hand that will call you about 5% of the time. And when you do get called, you still have a certain amount of equity in the pot.

Yeah I know, what I mean is, and the question I was really asking, is at what stage do the blinds get so big as to prevent you playing as opposed to pushing a hand. I was foolish in that the time to play was gone. I watched the final table for a bit, and the FT of another tournie I was knocked out of earlier and it was pretty much pushbot stuff. I should have pushed or folded, I'm just thinking at what time I'm going to say that to myself in the future, i.e., I have 8 blinds, from now on I'm pushing unless i want a caller, so as not to repeat that ridiculous fold.

See I also thought only about 5% of hands would reraise me there too, particularly with both our table images.