I'm not bonkers... am I?

DeVore

Quick sanity check. I'm starting to play deep stacked tournies again (as opposed to cash) and find myself with 21k on the button. Table is a mix but its near the bubble so play has tightened.

SB has 17k, BB has 10.
Blinds are 500/1000

No limpers and a late postion (button+2) player open-pushes for 6k. You have AJ.... your move?

I have no notes on this player particular, I've been playing with him for 30 mins and he hasnt done anything particularly stupid or impressive.

DeV.

Wisesmurf

With 6bb's he's pushing with any pair or strong face card. I'd probably repush and look for the heads up race. your not that deep yourself and if you loose 15k gives you one more move.


Rethink:With 6bb's he's pushing with any pair or strong face card. make that pushing with literally anything. Connectors, suited cards... all in for me

bohsman

I also push.

PiperT

Ship It.

phantom_lord

shove?

Hectorjelly

What range do you think he is pushing with? If he is pushing top 20% of hands your equity is 55%. That doesnt seem like much of an edge when you take into account the fact that you are really risking 17bbs and have no chance of winning uncontested.

If hes pushing top 40% of hands your equity is closer to 60%

If he is pushing top 10% of hands (plus all pairs) your equity is 45%


I think its probably a fold.

Lafortezza

What kind of players are SB and BB? How loose and willing to gamble are they?

cardshark202

Eh why not call? Seems like an easy call imo

Hectorjelly

cardshark202 wrote:

Eh why not call? Seems like an easy call imo

Because your edge is so small that its not worth the risk of running into a bigger hand in the blinds. If you were utg + 1 it would be a clear fold. Here its close but still a fold. The guy only has 6 blinds, yet hasnt been pushing much yet. So his range has to be weighted quite tightly.

If you just call there is 14k in the pot and a guy on the BB has 17. If he pushes you will be forced to call and will almost never have the best hand, or usually not the best ace. So in order to put 6bb in with a slight equity edge (and chopping the blinds) you are risking putting 17k in as a much worse dog.

cardshark202

Hectorjelly wrote:

Because your edge is so small that its not worth the risk of running into a bigger hand in the blinds. If you were utg + 1 it would be a clear fold. Here its close but still a fold. The guy only has 6 blinds, yet hasnt been pushing much yet. So his range has to be weighted quite tightly.

If you just call there is 14k in the pot and a guy on the BB has 17. If he pushes you will be forced to call and will almost never have the best hand, or usually not the best ace. So in order to put 6bb in with a slight equity edge (and chopping the blinds) you are risking putting 17k in as a much worse dog.

Ok yeah good point although I think its very close as its very unlikely that you will run into a bigger hand in the blinds and I think the shortstack's pushing range is pretty wide here.

phantom_lord

cardshark202 wrote:

Ok yeah good point although I think its very close as its very unlikely that you will run into a bigger hand in the blinds and I think the shortstack's pushing range is pretty wide here.

normally yeah, but by dev's description is doens't seem like he's pushing a wide of a range as normal, implying that ajo probably isn't goot here.

RasTa

Cardshark change that sig, We can't be that confident.

Solksjaer

It's a fold. He's shortstacked AND it's near the bubble, you are more than likely behind. AJ is not a great hand here. If you are lucky you have two overs. I'd say he had jj or better here otherwise it's a foolish push on his part. (if he just wants to cash that is)

phantom_lord

RasTa wrote:

Cardshark change that sig, We can't be that confident.

nonsense.

potty pete

RasTa wrote:

Cardshark change that sig, We can't be that confident.

I wonder is cardshark aware that his penname is also known as or spelt 'card sharp'

5starpool

potty pete wrote:

I wonder is cardshark aware that his penname is also known as or spelt 'card sharp'

It is posts like this that make this one of the top forums out there. :rolleyes:

Fizman

Givin your position and the description of the table for me this is a relatively easy fold. No way i'd want 80% (roughly) of my stack risked with AJ off near the bubble.

ntlbell

5starpool wrote:

It is posts like this that make this one of the top forums out there. :rolleyes:

It's posts like this by mods that we have so many lurkers

5starpool

ntlbell wrote:

It's posts like this by mods that we have so many lurkers

A semblance of abuse was deserved for it.

Hectorjelly

I was thinking a good bit about this, my initial instinct was to call until I checked the numbers; I think this is a spot where ive played too loose in the past. I think its pretty close and comes down to the guy pushing. If he is pushing nearly everything a call becomes more reasnable, but if he is in any way selective its not worth it.

BigCityBanker

FWIW I fold this everytime.

sikes

if we are around the bubble, we have to consider how the blinds are playing. If they are tight, then it makes sense for the shortie to go after them.

padraig_f

I push here. He can be playing pretty snug with 10 BBs, but open up his range a lot with 6 BBs. Pokerstove tells me it's 4.2% to get dealt JJ-AA,AQ+ (and will be a bit less considering we have an ace), so about 8% of the time you run into a hand that has you in trouble in the blinds.

DubTony

ntlbell wrote:

It's posts like this by mods that we have so many lurkers

****, I had the very same thought. :eek:

Goodluck2me

i dont shove here anyway,i call, if someone from behind shoves you can pass. i dont think its +ev to get it all in versus a third player as their range will have you crushed. i probably even pass depending on the structure, if its good ill pass if its short ill call.

edit i just seen the BB was short stacked, what range will he come along with us with?

Solksjaer

It's quite simple from what I can see, the shortstack is pushing for 6k. It's NEAR the bubble. Usually a shortstack won't push near the bubble unless he as a very good hand as he wants to limp into the cash. After that he'll push any 2. Button is on 21k. He will more than likely be behind shortstack if he calls. BB may decide to call but he may also be trying to limp into the money so maybe not. Although if the button calls and he was reasonable he should really move here also. So with this in mind I'd fold to a push from the shortstack with AJ. Why do people think the shortstacks range is wider so near the bubble? And what is AJ beating anyway to risk 6k from 21K.
I think it's a fold but it's not a disaster play either way. If it's me pushing my range would be big here as limping into the cash is normally soooo booooring.

It's posts like mine that make the lurkers and posters sigh in agreement. :rolleyes:


I do firmly believe though that the OP is actually quite bonkers in general....

phantom_lord

goodluck2me wrote:

i dont shove here anyway,i call, if someone from behind shoves you can pass. i dont think its +ev to get it all in versus a third player as their range will have you crushed. i probably even pass depending on the structure, if its good ill pass if its short ill call.

if we shove the blinds are more likely to fold, and if we call they're more likely to shove/call behind.

Flushdraw

How does our thinking change if we have 99 instead of AJ?

Solksjaer

I'd prefer 99 than AJ simply because it's ahead of it and you have more of a chance of being ahead. (AK, AQ) I'd call with 99 myself. Damn you shortstack, I just wanted the blinds here.

Blip

potty pete wrote:

I wonder is cardshark aware that his penname is also known as or spelt 'card sharp'

Anagram for cardshark = DarkCrash, but you probably know it cause your a PettyPoet.

mdwexford

this is an obvious push imo.

AJ is good enough to take on the short stack who could be pushing with any two, any small/ medium pair, qj, kj, kq

fuzzbox

This is a great question.

My first reaction was to shove. Then HJ mentioned the numbers, so I checked it out, and AJ is no better than 60/40 if he has any sort of reasonable range (any ace, any two broadways, any pair), and often approaches 50/50 if he has a more selective range (any two broadways, any pair, and A9s and A8s).

So its probably better to fold here than try to gamble Vs the short stack, and sometimes run into a big hand in the blinds where you are a big dog Vs his overcalling range.

You learn something new everyday.

Waterford ace

i'd def ship it, try to get him heads up

RoundTower

I think I would shove, I would also shove 1 off the button. The blinds will probably pass AQ or TT and you really aren't that likely to run into a bigger hand.

DeVore

One thing I didnt mention at the time of posting is that this is the first time its been folded around to this guy without a raise when he's anywhere near LP.

My initial reaction was to push as I felt I was well ahead of his range and 6bb's would leave me with 15-16bbs.

I didnt include the outcome because I didnt want to encourage results-based-logic (SB woke up with AA and crippled me).

Afterwards I started thinking/tilting that I shouldnt have put my stack at risk in order to pick off a shorty... but to turtle up and drift seems weak play. So, unclear in my thinking I decided to put it here to see what people think.

The first 10 out of 20 prizes was money back so I wasnt really interested in just getting into the money, I wanted to build a tank and I had a very good image on the table.

Just wanted to be sure I wasnt mad to push.

DeV.

ps: shorty had 99, I hit a jack but the Aces stood in the end.

The C Kid

Hectorjelly wrote:

Because your edge is so small that its not worth the risk of running into a bigger hand in the blinds. If you were utg + 1 it would be a clear fold. Here its close but still a fold. The guy only has 6 blinds, yet hasnt been pushing much yet. So his range has to be weighted quite tightly.

If you just call there is 14k in the pot and a guy on the BB has 17. If he pushes you will be forced to call and will almost never have the best hand, or usually not the best ace. So in order to put 6bb in with a slight equity edge (and chopping the blinds) you are risking putting 17k in as a much worse dog.

Andy Ward wrote a decent post recently on this as well. Similar situation, and same theory. I know i've mentioned this blog before but he's probably one of the best simple poker strategists around.

http://secretsoftheamateurs.blogspot.com/2007/03/what-you-dont-do-when-you-dont-have.html

He explains further in the comments too.

Goodluck2me

The C Kid wrote:

Andy Ward wrote a decent post recently on this as well. Similar situation, and same theory. I know i've mentioned this blog before but he's probably one of the best simple poker strategists around.

http://secretsoftheamateurs.blogspot.com/2007/03/what-you-dont-do-when-you-dont-have.html

He explains further in the comments too.

that a good read.