Tuesday

DeadParrot

Morning,

2 quick fancies for me today
Capable Guest --- 3 25 PONTEFRACT
Ran an absolute blinder on impossible ground last time out
Has raced against some of the very best , has its ground
6-1 PP

Reisk Superman --- 4 25 Fairyhouse
Off to the glue factory if it cant win this
Walsh on board eyecatching.
9-2 PP

Murta

Anyone know anything about Sweet Wake. His form isn't very impressive yet he seems to have plenty of support (from 10-1 to 7-1 with Paddy Power). Am I missing something here?

Crumbs

Did you not see the County Hurdle? Looked a winner coming to the last but walloped the hurdle and didn't finish well, fading to 7th. Now 4lbs better off with Pedrobob, the winner of that race. However, Sweet Wake might not be the most trustworthy of horses and I won't be risking my money on him.

Looks a minefield of a race but my two against the field would be Emmpat and Monty Mint, plus I always respect anything that Willie Mullins runs at this time of the year.

HiCloy

Sweet wake has been backed in every race he has run in due to his home reputation - this looks easier than many of the other races he has contected tho

Just watching the rerun of the County hurdle there - sweet wake wasnt beaten far but it ws a bunched finish, which usually is not a good sign for the reliability of the form

knighted

i fancy pedro for a place -hard race to call but farmer brown is a consistant sort who is nicely weighted to win this plus nina using up one of her pro rides for it -smallish stakes for me farmer brown ew and pedro bob to place

Murta

PedroBob seems to be a consistent type won 7 and placed 3 times in last 12 races. Sweet Wake seems to be overrated by yard. He's failed to deliver in last four races. Think I'll stick with Pedro.

Murta

PedroBob seems to be a consistent type won 7 and placed 3 times in last 12 races. Sweet Wake seems to be overrated by yard. He's failed to deliver in last four races. Think I'll stick with Pedro.

Sizzler

Missed this one making the journey over to the UK today, a nice win if you had your peepers on all the cards

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Full_Results/0,12493,227075,00.html

knighted

just be careful murta -im on pedro but he has only won one handicap off 10 st rest of wins were in conditions races -diff kettle of fish -he has to carry 11-9 today which would be grand in conditions but this is a handicap -hope he does win but careful in reading form

Cyrus

DeadParrot wrote:

Morning,

2 quick fancies for me today
Capable Guest --- 3 25 PONTEFRACT
Ran an absolute blinder on impossible ground last time out
Has raced against some of the very best , has its ground
6-1 PP

Reisk Superman --- 4 25 Fairyhouse
Off to the glue factory if it cant win this
Walsh on board eyecatching.
9-2 PP

unlucky with reisk superman, nearly there

DeadParrot

story of my life mate
9-2 this morning, should've even put an e/w saver on it

Murta

Pity about Petrobob was never in it today. I still have strong doubts about Sweet Lake. I wonder what Meade has to say about it. Well done to New Field - didn't think he'd feature at all.

Murta

DeadParrot wrote:

story of my life mate
9-2 this morning, should've even put an e/w saver on it

What exactly do people mean by saver? Same stakes/reduced stakes/enough potential winnings to cover main stake?

knighted

ur third guess enuff to cover the stake-

knighted

Today, 12:42 #12
Murta
Registered User



Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 12
Adverts | Blog | Friends I kinda fancy Joes Edge for Grand National. According to Fredy horse is better than ever. Judging by Cheltenham and Fairyhouse, Fredy knows his stuff.
I thinking of a saver on Idle Talk and Silver Birch.


u posted this at 12.42 thinking of a saver and u post at 17.42 enquiring whats a saver ?

Murta

knighted wrote:

Today, 12:42 #12
Murta
Registered User



Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 12
Adverts | Blog | Friends I kinda fancy Joes Edge for Grand National. According to Fredy horse is better than ever. Judging by Cheltenham and Fairyhouse, Fredy knows his stuff.
I thinking of a saver on Idle Talk and Silver Birch.


u posted this at 12.42 thinking of a saver and u post at 17.42 enquiring whats a saver ?

My idea of a saver is option 3 (winning enough on saver to cover main bet). I'm interested to know if this is what other people mean by saver? It's a term that seems to be mentioned alot in race betting.

Crumbs

Crumbs wrote:

Looks a minefield of a race but my two against the field would be Emmpat and Monty Mint

Mmmm, I'm good. I mean real good!

BobbyD10

Crumbs wrote:

Mmmm, I'm good. I mean real good!

And where was Monty Mint then.....lol...:) (7th wasn't bad effort either)

Robin1982

Murta wrote:

My idea of a saver is option 3 (winning enough on saver to cover main bet).

I'm interested to know if this is what other people mean by saver? It's a term that seems to be mentioned alot in race betting.

For me, "saver" is how you described above. I prefer the term "hedge" as saver implies a certain acknowledgement of expected failure

It's a tricky one, but personally I don't think hedging is a good strategy, especially if you are just focused on value betting.

However, I have to admit there a certain situations where hedging makes perfect sense.

First off, the "hedge" (the other bet) should be treated as a separate wager. It has its own percentage probability.

Secondly, the reason you bet the main horse was that you believe it represents a positive ROI situation. It would be highly unlikely that the "value" you discovered before placing the bet is large enough to offset the cost of another (albeit, smaller) bet on another contestant. If you believe that a bet is worth your normal stake, you probably should just stick with that bet alone.

As for when hedging makes sense, I imagine something like if you had 2 "live" tickets going into the final leg of the Jackpot, betting on other contestants to "hedge" i.e. to guarantee at least some profit. The ROI is large enough to cover it.

Then again, savers, as I heard one gambler describe it, "are like banging your sister. You score, but at what cost"