irish open exit hand

robinlacey

just got knocked out of the irish open,here's the hand.

blinds 1500/3000,ante 200
i have 60k or so

in the last 40 minutes or so i've raised twice,once from utg,both times someone pushed all in and i folded.

a guy has just been moved to the table with 55k,he makes it 9 utg or utg+1
i have AK and call,hoping to induce a squeeze.

folded around to mick mc closkey in the blinds,he pushes

he squeezed about an hour ago and showed down AQ

original raiser also calls,which worries me somewhat.

as i'm thinking,the utg raiser's friend comes over to see what's happening,he tells his friend he's all in,but with his least favourite hand,he says this fairly quietly and away from the table,so i don't think he would have expected me to hear it.

anyway,i figure that i called to induce a squeeze and it worked,i reckon i'm not in amazing shape against mick's range but i'm not dominated either,people have been restealing with any ace,pretty much every raise for the last hour or so has been pushed over.

i think the thing that swung it was hearing the guy say he had his least favourite hand,this made me think there was a good chance i would be up against JJ or TT from utg,and maybe AK-AJs,AA-TT from mick,with the possibility of an even worse hand given that it was such a perfect situation for a squeeze.

so i call,it was 55k or so to win a 160k+ pot,which would obviously leave me in great shape (average stack was about fifty)
so what do people think?

jhegarty

I can't put in enough chips to be average stack against two players with ak....

It would have to be aa or kk to call in that spot myself...


But then again you quailifed for the open and I didn't :eek:

58o

Ouch unlucky man. Tough spot
I'dl ike to think i could find a fold here but it would be a tough one. Dont like getting my chips into the pot behind 2 all ins with AK esp when you can fold and still have some play with your stack. The fact you have no history on UTG would sway me too, i'd give him benefit of the doubt and assume he has a big hand. Played with Mick mccloskey for a while yesterday, he's super solid and i would think this is a pretty huge hand herer more often than a squeeze.

In spite of all of that, if you are right about it being a squeeze and UTG has JJ 10 10 you are in with a shout of getting a huge stack, so you can't be too hard on yourself. UL

RoundTower

with the description of the players and the table I think it's an easy call. Without the reads I think this is a good spot to fold AK though, I don't expect players in live tourneys to be as aggro as you suggest.

robinlacey

couple of things to consider:

first of all,i have an average stack,so i'm in decent enough shape.

however,the tournament is getting short stacked,i only have 20 big blinds,and there's antes,so i have an M (if that's the expression,the thing from the harrington books) of about 10

so if i fold i still have 50k,but each raise is to 10k,so i'm going to have to start pushing over raises with loads of rubbish hands and calling people who come over the top of me light,so i'll be gambling either way.

also,at this point i would gladly take a neutral ev shot at tripling up.
if i win the pot i have 160k and can really put pressure on people,with 50k i don't fancy my chances at all.

valor

seems fine to me espec given what the caller said

BobSloane

It looks like you were looking to go very deep in the prizemoney and this would have been a defining moment if it had paid off. If you fold here your M is under ten and you might soon be looking for an all-in situation to just get back to where you are now. You win this and you're in great shape to play comfortably. I think its one of those where the risk / reward ratio is too good to pass up and even if you run into KK the pot size almost compensates - especially considering your stack size compared to the blinds and antes. So I'm only really afraid of AA here. If he's got that hand well thats unlucky.
Good call imo

Lissavalley

I fold here. There's times when you must fold ak and here is one of them. If it was heads up its an easy call. You're still in fairly good shape.

However original raisers call suggests a big hand regardless of what mc closkey has. I fold here.

ianmc38

I dont think Mick is squeezing here enough. I think you're going to be in really bad shape alot especially with an unknown UTG raise. His talk to his friend could mean anything from aces to kings to jacks to 9Ts. You have an average stack if you fold.

jhegarty

BobSloane wrote:

if you run into KK the pot size almost compensates -

actually you would be in real trouble against kk IF the third player has an worse ace... about 16%...

Jesus Wept

ianmc38 wrote:

I dont think Mick is squeezing here enough. I think you're going to be in really bad shape alot especially with an unknown UTG raise. His talk to his friend could mean anything from aces to kings to jacks to 9Ts. You have an average stack if you fold.

I don't think Mick is the squeezing type, having played with him a fair bit, he plays very solid, and tight (and has an annoying habit of getting big hands at the right times, such as this).

As played, having just called the utg raise, and 2 players now allin, I think a fold is good, but I understand how fustrating it is to fold an AK, and then be wittled down and see nothing comparable and end up shoving an hour later when a KQ/55 becomes a monster to you.

BobSloane

jhegarty wrote:

actually you would be in real trouble against kk IF the third player has an worse ace... about 16%...

yeah IF one player has KK and the other has a weaker A you're in trouble. Or IF one player has AA you're in trouble. Any other combination and its fine. I'm willing to gamble in this situation against a combo range of hands - most especially because of the stack size in relation to the blinds and antes. The reward is worth the risk for a player looking to contend for the win.

In a way this is one of those tournament life hands. As an analogy though this is like the doctor saying "We've got a procedure that can save your wife's life but its only got a 20-50% chance of working. If we don't operate she'll probably be dead in 6 months."

Better to burn out than to fade away. wp robin

ianmc38

The-Rigger wrote:

I don't think Mick is the squeezing type,

Exactly. He's very tight and very solid. I wouldnt be surprised if he'd never heard the term squeeze play.

Jesus Wept

ianmc38 wrote:

Exactly. He's very tight and very solid. I wouldnt be surprised if he'd never heard the term squeeze play.

Ah, I'm sure he has heard of it But I know he wouldn't put his neck on the line doing it.

Actually I'm semi surprised he just allins with the AA,

results based thinkers will tell me how well it worked out for him, but the chips are always going in at this stage between KK and AA (at least they should), so what if someone has a weak holding? Isn't he reducing the chance that someone makes a smaller pair or an Ace Queen hoping to get lucky, and then might end up spewing even when they don't...

MrPillowTalk

Mick is prone to overplaying middle pairs though, I wouldnt call but it would be because the original raiser called not because Mick pushed.

Shortstack

Elvis has left the building el busto

Jesus Wept

Shortstack wrote:

Elvis has left the building el busto

ah sh1te, was hoping to hear the 'Elvis has left the building' annoucment.

fuzzbox

I already know the results, but I can find a fold here with AK.
Sure, you will have to start reraising with kinda crappy hands like 67s, but at least you will be shoving over a raise, and possibly making your opponents lay down so its a better gamble.
Plus the orig raiser was UTG or UTG+1.

Ste05

I think with your plan to induce a squeeze followed by it coming you would have to call if the Original raiser folds everyday, however when the original raiser called, alarm bells would have been ringing loudly, until you hear his comments, at which point I would also have thought he had 1010 or JJ, maybe even AQ (or possibly AK) too, as I always think these hands are the ones that most people have down as their least favourite hands. However, if I didn't hear this I would find a fold.

semibluff

i like the fact that you were trying to induce a squeeze, but i dont like how/who actually did it. Mick is not the rock that everyone thinks he is, but he def wont put his tournament life on the rick with nothing. he showed a squeeze earlier with AQ, and if he has this then you are only slightly ahead, but considering how early the action wwas, and ur scary flat call - he has to have alot stronger than AQ.

And when the original raiser calls i think now its time to jump ship. the original raiser only paused momentarily (which means u can rule out aces, but i dont think he has 1010 or even JJ, he would have had to think longer, there was no moment were he paused to consider you, he wasnt bothered!) the convversation you heard with the friend, i think you were convincing yourself that he had JJ, 1010, as he wouldnt have called so readily with it. alot of people (fergus from SE) hate KK, as they always seem to get dogged, and i think he has QQ at worst here. when you combine it with mick having stronger than AQ i find a fold alot easier.

I admire the fact that you trusted your reads enough to go with it, and tried to be one of the chip leaders and win a big prize as opposed to falling into the small pay outs, but a fold here and you could have aggresively attacked the bubble period.

Unluky either ways

Hitman Actual

I know you're saying that the table was push happy at this stage, but the way this hand played out I'd expect AK to be on the wrong side of neutral EV. Not by much, but in trouble all the same. Very unlucky to run into what you did though!