Deep, so deep, this number one I'd like to reap

fuzzbox

3/6 6-max
I have 1400, villain has 1100. Donkey has 3k

Donkey is a loose passive dude, who just check/calls any pair through severeal streets and also check/calls the nuts through several streets. Obviously he is hitting cards.

Villain seems fine, quite tag, seems solid, certainly capable of a move, especially in position and deep.

I am sitting to the immediate right of the donkey, so I'm playing fairly tight, as there is really no need to do anything else, although I am isolating (or trying to) the villain as often as I can with anything playable.

Preflop
Folded to villain who opens to 22 on the button, donkey calls in the sb, I make it 125 with Ad As, villain calls, donkey folds.

Flop (270)
Jc 8h 7h
I bet 190, villain calls

Turn (650)
2s
What do we like ?
Villain has about 750 left I guess and I cover.

Goodluck2me

How wide is the villains range here? is he raising much from the button? how likely is he to call bets with TPTK, will he have a bet if we check the turn? i hate giving free cards away on this board. we got the blank of all blanks on the turn and i think its best to bet it. I know we`re supposed to keep the pot small with our one pari hand but i dont like giving a free river. bet 350 on the turn and probably call a shove.

Gholimoli

you must have some idea what his range is here when he calls your reraise?
do you think he would check QQ/KK/AJ behind here if you check or do you think he would bet with them ?

do you think your hand would ever need protection from flush/str agianst this villain with the way the action is gone and the texture of the bord?

robinlacey

i think i would check here,betting looks so strong,if he has very little checking gives him a chance to put you on missed overcards and bet,plus he will hopefully bet QQ and KK here too.
im not too worried about giving a free card here

fuzzbox

Gholimoli wrote:

you must have some idea what his range is here when he calls your reraise?
do you think he would check QQ/KK/AJ behind here if you check or do you think he would bet with them ?

I would say that he doesnt have AJ here very often. Prolly pairs and suited connectors most often. But I cant really be sure, we havent played much.

do you think your hand would ever need protection from flush/str agianst this villain with the way the action is gone and the texture of the bord?

Yeah, I think he can have a draw here, although Im not sure how strong (as he can shove this flop with a big draw expecting me to fold fairly often).

fuzzbox

robinlacey wrote:

i think i would check here,betting looks so strong,if he has very little checking gives him a chance to put you on missed overcards and bet,plus he will hopefully bet QQ and KK here too.
im not too worried about giving a free card here

The board is very dangerous, so what plan would you have if the turn checked through and the river was any card from K->6 or any heart?

If you check, do you call the turn if he shoves? What if he bets 250 ?

robinlacey

if we check the turn and he bets:
to be honest i would kind of judge it on how much he bet and how quickly,often when you check here and he bets something about the way he does it gives you an idea of what he has,i suppose its sort of a timing tell,i know that's pretty vague but i find in these situations if i check and he bets i will often be able to make a decision i am happy with much more than if i saw it written down,sometimes his next action will just make a certain type of hand make more sense than the others.

having said that,i would be more inclinded towards calling/pushing the turn if he bets that folding,i'm just saying i wouldn't rule out folding altogether if something about his bet worries me,but i'd say 80-90% of the time i check and he bets we're getting all in

as for if it's checked through and the river is scary,i'm not worried about that at all to be honest,against a decent tag capable of making moves i think if he has a draw he either pushes the flop or bets/pushes the turn almost all the time,so i am usually happy check calling,once you've checked twice he will bet QQ,KK and AJ for value

if this happens there's also the,admitedly slim,chance that he may have a hand with showdown value that is beginning to suspect its behind,something like AJ or QQ,which he might decide to turn into a bluff when the board gets scary.

robinlacey

sorry that was so vague,probably wasn't much help

Gholimoli

if he has a strong draw he does not have more than 25% equity i dont think at this stage.
if u bet half the pot you are telling him that you are happy playing for stacks and he will fold a lot of hands he may push with if you check.
down side is he would easily check behind with a draw but then again that's not so bad for you as the most likely draw would be a flush draw .
i would imagine checking with the intention of calling if he shoves/bets is the better line .

cardshark202

Hes a good player, so its extremely unlikely he has AJ here. I think check-shoving or just pushing are best here. I think its quite likely for him to have KK/QQ/JJ or even the other AA here, so Im liking check-shoving even more.

fuzzbox

Results:
I shoved, and he folded.

I said in the chat "QQ?" and he said "no JTs".

I said "hearts?"
He said "no I woulda pushed the flop of course".

He said "you had AA/KK?"
I said "no, I had AhKh" .

So of course we dont know how true what he said was

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

Ste05

Yeah, I agree with cardshark, I really can't see this guy ever having AJ in a re-raised pot.

I think his most likely range is JJ+ with suited connectors and small pairs thrown in there too. I think JJ and other sets would have more than likely raised the flop because it is so draw heavy, unless they have a fairly strong read that Fuzz is only re-raising from the blinds with big pairs. (I would doubt Fuzz is this tight with his 3-Betting so I'm discounting this slightly)

The complete brick on the Turn basically means that I'm playing for stacks now, whether I check or lead would depend on how I had seen this guy play draws, if I thought he'd semi-bluff the turn a good % of the time, I'd CRAI. Similarly if I thought he would check behind with a draw, then I would probably just push, (any other bet is the exact same, we're committed and the Villain will know this).

I'm not sure what I prefer TBH, but because he didn't raise us on what is a very draw heavy board, I think that he most likely has a draw himself or a scared over pair. I'll charge the draw to hit and see if he can make a Hero call with his over pair and just open push. I just really don't want him to check behind there are so many cards in the deck that will be scary to us, and being OOP it's highly likely we'll end up folding the best hand on the river.

fuzzbox

robinlacey wrote:

sorry that was so vague,probably wasn't much help

So we are agreed, that being oop on the turn, on a farily dangerous board, with a one pair hand in a big pot ... is a tough spot then .

fuzzbox

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Given your read of his play, I find it highly unlikely that he has J10 soooted on the basis of the pre - flop action.

I actually think he could well have that hand. Also 56s or 89s or 99/TT/QQ/KK

Often, when deep, ppl call 3-bets in position with a wider range than normal.

LuckyLloyd

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Hectorjelly

The donkey makes his range wider

LuckyLloyd

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valor

The button can have any 2 here, because of the donkey and the stacks

DeadParrot

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Yup. Of course it does. Man, the quality of my posts the last few days is not good.

just saving that deep analytical mind of yours for friday of course

ocallagh

there was only really one bet left in that hand, i think i check the turn.

fuzzbox

ocallagh wrote:

there was only really one bet left in that hand, i think i check the turn.

Its much better if you tell me the plan for what to do after we check the turn as well, cos surely this hand doesnt end there.

ocallagh

Betting/Shoving the turn:
If he's a good player you'll price him out of any sort of draw because of the shallow stacks behind... It's very tough for him to make a mistake here. He will fold a lot of hands if you shove the turn.
However, by betting you are securing what is in the pot unless of course you are behind. This is never a bad option because the pot is quite big. So by pushing turn you win X ($650) most of the time, and lose 2X some of the time(for when he has you beat on turn)

Checking the turn:
This might yield better results (I say 'might' because there are a lot of variables which cannot properly be assigned % values).

Preflop your range was quite wide (ie: it looks like you were isolating the donkey with a 3-bet against a button raise). I like the c-bet on the flop and by checking the turn on a drawish board your range stays wide open (in contrast to shoving the turn where it narrows considerably). I would be confident villain shoves enough of the time here to make up for the times you lose the pot when he checks turn and you have to fold to a heart river + push. In fact your line looks so weak I'd say he'd push with a draw on the turn because he reckons FE is so high. If he checks behind and we get a safe river I push expecting to get called by a slightly wider range than if we'd pushed turn thus increasing our chances yet again to win 2X instead of X.

I would expect him to have a draw and check turn and hit between 10 and 20% of the time but I think he stacks off more often than that if you check turn for the reasons mentioned above.