The Lincoln 4.25

Taff

Bawaader at 9/2 with PP looks good enough to win this again - the going is much like last years romp, and though up in the weights has improved in the interim.

Nicely drawn, an each way steal?

Sizzler

If yesterday was anything to go by (with the exception of Tajneed) I dont think Weld's horses are firing on all cylinders.

Id go even further and say he had a pretty average season by his standards last year.

I hope Prendergast gives him a right run for his money this year

Corben Dallas

typical days racing from the curragh no favs won. 12's 20's as much as u want. (form as usual my arse)

Badwaar (PJ Smullen) didnt seem to be too interested in winning it either, v poor effort made by jockey.

knighted

that flat racing absolutly shocking lol-save ur bets for the real racing in kildare in the shape of the punchestown festival next month-

flat =open a gate run to the line fastest wins coolmore dominates(yawn)

nh=train ur horse to run stay and jump things u put in its way -no domination(pure skill)

awaiting abuse

fade2black

You won't get any from me....

wb

typical days racing from the curragh no favs won. 12's 20's as much as u want. (form as usual my arse)

lat =open a gate run to the line fastest wins coolmore dominates(yawn)

nh=train ur horse to run stay and jump things u put in its way -no domination(pure skill)

awaiting abuse

Calm down lads! It was the fist day of the season! It should be treated with extreme caution. The fist day of the premier league should too. So should the start of the Rugby league. In fact, the first month or two of any sporting season should be treated with caution.

knighted

yes but with flat racing u must be cautious of the first two months the last two months and the middle two months -feel free to back anything outside this timeframe -lol

wb

knighted wrote:

yes but with flat racing u must be cautious of the first two months the last two months and the middle two months -feel free to back anything outside this timeframe -lol

Ah come on, if it was as simple as that, we would all be professional layers.

gamb1or

I'm pretty sure favourites are more likely to win on the flat than over jumps (excluding all weather).....would i be write WB?

gamb1or

How did the banker of the Cheltenham festival, Well Chief, do in the Queen Mother?

I missed the race.

masterK

gamb1or wrote:

I'm pretty sure favourites are more likely to win on the flat than over jumps (excluding all weather).....would i be write WB?

Interestingly based on stats I've kept from the last year over a sample of nearly 3000 races the average winning price in a flat turf race was 7.1/1 while for National Hunt it was slightly less at 6.5/1.

wb

Ok yiz have forced me to be an annoying git, but I'm going to dispel some myths with some statistics.

Results of backing the clear favourite (no co or joint favs) in all NH races from 1991-2007:

Bets: 24042
Wins: 8739
Strike Rate: 36.3
Return to SP: 92.0%

Results of backing the clear favourite (no co or joint favs) in all FLAT races from 1991-2007:

Bets: 35563
Wins: 11369
Strike Rate: 32%
Return to SP: 92.7%

As you can see, the strike rate for NH is higher BUT the financial return for the flat is slightly higher at 92.7% (in other words, an average retrun of €92.70 for every €100 bet)

NH has more winning favs, but flat is slightly ahead on financial return.

knighted

good stats -money is irrelevent winning is the most important so nh wins-



anyone elsethink that aiden o brien wont be champion trainer this year ?nothing solid to go on but i think they may be in for a poor season by there own standards -and whats people views on mick halfords new owner in the aga khan ?had johny got a hand in this ?
what would people prefer to watch a thrilling gold cup or a 2 minute derby?

goodfela

knighted wrote:

what would people prefer to watch a thrilling gold cup or a 2 minute derby?

i think that's what you call a leading question knighted!! Ha ha...

I have to say, i find it very hard to get interested in flat racing (an attitude inherited from my father!) but i'm starting to come around to it the more time passes...

Healio

The only thing i like about flat racing, is that the chance of falling is significantly less!!

Taff

A 2 minute Derby would be some performance

Yesterdays winner really left everything for dead - thought has crossed my mind that with the race lost for Bawaader, a reduced handicap mark may have become a consideration.

Tush

Weld runs Hum The Tune at Thurles on Thursday,will take alot of beating if the ground doesnt go against it.

wb

knighted wrote:

what would people prefer to watch a thrilling gold cup or a 2 minute derby?

I'd much rather watch a thrilling neck to neck derby than the worst quality gold cup (in my memory) that is based around a (flawed) champion.

keepitquiet

id rather watch both in the same yr:):rolleyes:

wb

knighted wrote:

good stats -money is irrelevent winning is the most important so nh wins-

?

As Moe Sizlack would say: "Whaaa?"

You care about having more wins then a better return? Why don't you just back odds on all the time then?

knighted

wb -it just shows i am a genuine fan of the sport and dont need to bet on races to appreciate the sport -sometimes betting on an event can distort ur view or enjoyment of it and cloud ur judgement -if u want to discuss 'gambling' there is another forum on this site for that -this is the horse racing discussion forum
just going to get another wooden spoon as this one is wearing down due to an increase in stirring lately

yours with toungue in cheek

knighted

wb

knighted wrote:

wb -it just shows i am a genuine fan of the sport and dont need to bet on races to appreciate the sport -sometimes betting on an event can distort ur view or enjoyment of it and cloud ur judgement -if u want to discuss 'gambling' there is another forum on this site for that -this is the horse racing discussion forum
just going to get another wooden spoon as this one is wearing down due to an increase in stirring lately

yours with toungue in cheek

knighted

I too am a genuie fan, and don't bet on a lot of the races. In fact, I run a lot bets on paper only that show some profit, but I only do it for the pure enjoyment. ....

Go to the gambling forum? Are you mad? Next you will be telling me to go to the betfair forum!!

knighted

lol:)

slowlyin2stride

Rather than getting heavily involved on the first day of the season, punters should be looking for clues as to how "straight" certain stables are, and how others seem to be behind. This will be of benefit over the next month as stable form is paramount early in the flat season.

Looking at Sunday's racing, I would concur with Bolger's sentiments that his string are c. 4 weeks behind given that the likes of La Conquistadora hit the front in the Group 3 race and had every chance 2f only to weaken. Likewise his jolly in the final maiden, Creachdoir got there and faded as did Namaya ( a surefire winner in the future now that he has been gelded and given a chance by the handicapper).

Although not in the winner's enclosure, Kevin's definitely hit the ground running with respectable showings in the opening maidens, while it is apparent once again that Ballydoyle are not interested in farming the early season maidens.

masterK

slowlyin2stride wrote:

Rather than getting heavily involved on the first day of the season, punters should be looking for clues as to how "straight" certain stables are, and how others seem to be behind. This will be of benefit over the next month as stable form is paramount early in the flat season.

Looking at Sunday's racing, I would concur with Bolger's sentiments that his string are c. 4 weeks behind given that the likes of La Conquistadora hit the front in the Group 3 race and had every chance 2f only to weaken. Likewise his jolly in the final maiden, Creachdoir got there and faded as did Namaya ( a surefire winner in the future now that he has been gelded and given a chance by the handicapper).

Although not in the winner's enclosure, Kevin's definitely hit the ground running with respectable showings in the opening maidens, while it is apparent once again that Ballydoyle are not interested in farming the early season maidens.

That's exactly what I've been saying on another forum that a lot of us are familiar with, Wb has been good enough to produce some stats on trainers early season performance for UK racing. Some big named trainers have an absolutely shocking historical performance in the months of March and April on turf.