Ed Miller advice

AmarilloFats

Yoyo.
Found this hand on Ed Millers site.
His advice I find interesting.



5/10 NL online, 1k effective stacks. not much info on villian, he has called a lot on early streets and frequently bet big on later streets when checked to, almost always in position.
opens for 35 with Ac 7c in the cutoff, villian cold calls on the button, blinds fold. flop is A 5c 8 . hero bets 65 into a pot of 85, villian calls. like the bet? I think I should have bet less here in retrospect.
the turn is the Jc (giving hero nut flush draw and Top Pair) . pot is 215, hero bets 165. curious if you think this is a mistake? anyways, villian calls.
river is 7 . pot is 545, hero checks, villian moves allin for 735. hero?
I really appreciate this submission, Paul. This hand is well worth discussing. One of the most common and fundamental mistakes that many no limit players make is that they put in too much money out of position with marginal hands. Unfortunately, that’s the mistake I think you made throughout this hand.

First I’ll answer your specific question. You made aces up on the river on a not-that-threatening board. Your opponent called three times, preflop on the button and then on the flop and turn. Your opponent likes to float. (For the uninitiated, floating is calling on early rounds with position to bet/bluff big on later rounds.) The pot’s offering about 1.75-to-1, so you need to win about 37 percent of the time to break even.
I think it’s a no-brainer. You call. What do you put your opponent on? A straight is pretty far-fetched unless he had 9 6 or 9 6 (or 64 or the same suits). Other than that, you’re worried about ace-jack, ace-eight, or a set.
But he could also easily have a big ace. The river bet is a little bold with ace-king, but otherwise the play is 100% consistent with that hand. It’s not even that bold if he reads hands; from his perspective, your most likely hand is an ace. He could have a flopped two pair, “slowplaying” against your ace.
He could also easily be bluffing. Both flush draws missed. He does like to bet in position, doesn’t he? I think it’s clear you’ll win more than the required 37 percent of the time. Checking and calling is, I think, clearly the best river play.
Before the river, though, I pretty much hate the hand. I really hate the turn bet. What do you do if he moves in on you? The stacks are exactly the wrong size for you if he raises your turn bet. If you bet and allow him a roughly pot-sized move in, you’ve turned a valuable hand into toilet paper.
He likes to bet with position, so let him. Check. If he’s light, you’ll have snapped off a sizable bluff. And if he’s got a set or something, then you at least get to see the river and possibly stack him if make your flush.
You could also try a check-raise semi-bluff on the turn. Whether you check-call or check-raise is read-dependent. But betting out sets you up for an immediate catastrophe.
Say you check-call the turn, miss on the river, and check. He moves in. At that point you have a tough decision. A tough decision set up by your fundamental mistake throughout the hand:
You put way too much money into the pot, out of position, against a dangerous player, with a marginal hand.
Your starting hand, A7s, is marginal. Your flopped hand, top pair/no kicker, is marginal. Your turn hand, top pair/flush draw, is marginal (facing a big bet). On each street, you put lots of money in the pot. You put lots of money in the pot with a marginal hand, out of position and against a tricky and unpredictable player.
That’s not how you win at no-limit.
You violated a macro no-limit principle. (A while back, I wrote an article about micro and macro principles you might want to check out.) Don’t put lots of money in the pot, out of position with a marginal hand. Tough decisions and unenviable situations are the price you pay for violating that rule.
Sometime around March 2007, our new no limit book will hit the shelves. Matt Flynn, Sunny Mehta, and I are almost done writing, and I would say (without exaggerating) that the #1 focus of the book is on how to play hands like this one well. The book is a practical guide to navigating situations just like this one. I’m really excited to see the reaction to it, because I think it will be truly eye-opening for so many no limit players.
In the meantime, when you’re out of position with a shaky hand, leave your money out of it.

ianmc38

Looks pretty standard to me. A turn bet cant face a raise. And the river is an easy call against this opponent.