Odds Question

BigCityBanker

There is 11,600 in the middle

Player A then goes awweeen for more chips than god.

Player B will be all in if he calls - At what point should player B fold/call? i.e. what is the breakeven point in chips between folding and calling?

Flop 5 6 7r, and you reckon player A has an overpair to the board, Player B has Q 8 for an oesd.

Captain Tom

well isnt a straight draw approximately 2-1 to hit?

in that case isnt the breakeven point for folding 11.6k?

edit:sorry this is assuming your queen isnt live.and im probably wrong anyway.

sikes

you have 41.2% equity( assuming overpair being TT. If its 99, KK, AA, obviously everything changes)

so x being our stack

(11,600 + (x)) / x = 1.427

= 27,166.27

maybe...

EDIT:

If range is 99-AA then we have 36% equity

(11600 + x) / x = 1.78

=14,871.79

Mellor

the vilian has an overpair, 88-AA
you have max 11 outs (TT,JJ) *12 counts
min 3 outs (88) *3 counts
(QQ-AA) has you on 8 outs *18 counts
and (99) has 5 outs *6 counts
that averages out at 8.08 outs, taking 8 as the closest.
You have 8 outs and he has no redraws to your straight.
This is practically 36%. (8/45+8/44)
when we win we gain 11600+x, when we lose we drop x

win = .36 * (11600+x)
lose = .64 * (x)

break even when these are equal
4176+.36x=.64x
4176=.28x
x=4176/.28
x=14914.29

slighty different method to sikes, might be easier to follow,
different answer probably due to rounding of values. but its approaching the 14.9K mark

BigCityBanker

Mellor wrote:

x=14914.29

I was assuming that I had 8 outs - any 4 or 9 and stuffed 17k into the middle. not great i suppose but fcek it!

cooker3

Mellor wrote:

the vilian has an overpair, 88-AA
you have max 11 outs (TT,JJ) *12 counts
min 3 outs (88) *3 counts
(QQ-AA) has you on 8 outs *18 counts
and (99) has 5 outs *6 counts
that averages out at 8.08 outs, taking 8 as the closest.
You have 8 outs and he has no redraws to your straight.
This is practically 36%. (8/45+8/44)
when we win we gain 11600+x, when we lose we drop x

win = .36 * (11600+x)
lose = .64 * (x)

break even when these are equal
4176+.36x=.64x
4176=.28x
x=4176/.28
x=14914.29

slighty different method to sikes, might be easier to follow,
different answer probably due to rounding of values. but its approaching the 14.9K mark

I am confused, where did you get the 4176 from in the final equation

HiCloy

I'm getting a lower value than ye:

From pokerstove:

Q8: 35.059%
88+: 64.941%

So breakeven point is 13,609.68. Fold if you have more chips than this.

If you include the possibility of him having a set things get worse:

Q8:32.976%
55+: 67.024%

So breakeven point is now 11,234.77

sikes

HiCloy wrote:

I'm getting a lower value than ye:

From pokerstove:

Q8: 35.059%
88+: 64.941%

So breakeven point is 13,609.68. Fold if you have more chips than this.

Yeah you are right. My range was 99+

(11600 + X)/X = 1.852
11600 = X(1.852-1)
11600/.852 = X
=13615.02

padser

BigCityBanker wrote:

I was assuming that I had 8 outs - any 4 or 9 and stuffed 17k into the middle. not great i suppose but fcek it!

Very simple maths (and in fairness if your trying to do it during the game it needs to be simple) says if you have 8 outs, thats roughly 1 in 6 to hit on the turn, and again on the river. Call it 1 in 3 (knowing that its closer to 1-3.5) and if you are going all in for more then pot, and only getting one caller - you can't get back three times what you put in - so its gotta be a fold.

BigCityBanker

ok - damn 16600 in the middle and then he goes all in....

sikes

(16600 + X)/x = 1.852
16600 = X(1.852-1)
16600/.852 = X
=19483.57

Mellor

BigCityBanker wrote:

ok - damn 16600 in the middle and then he goes all in....

thats a +EV call,

cooker3 wrote:

I am confused, where did you get the 4176 from in the final equation

its from the win line. (.36*11600)

win = .36 * (11600+x) =4176+.36x
lose = .64 * (x) = .64x
then made them equal

4176+.36x=.64x

padser wrote:

Very simple maths (and in fairness if your trying to do it during the game it needs to be simple) says if you have 8 outs, thats roughly 1 in 6 to hit on the turn, and again on the river. Call it 1 in 3 (knowing that its closer to 1-3.5) and if you are going all in for more then pot, and only getting one caller - you can't get back three times what you put in - so its gotta be a fold.

Well its actually about 1 in 2.8
so the pot can be slightly smaller than your stack.
In the original the pot was too much smaller, but now that the original pot is actually 16k, its a call all-in for 17k

sikes

Mellor wrote:

In the original the pot was too much smaller, but now that the original pot is actually 16k, its a call all-in for 19k

.

Mellor

sorry, I know he could of push in up to 19k with a +EV
but was saying push for 17k as its all he had left.

guessing you pushed and missed BCB and were wondering if its was right to do so

BigCityBanker

Mellor wrote:

guessing you pushed and missed BCB and were wondering if its was right to do so

no I insta called as I was pretty sure I was getting the right price. A few ppl at the table shot me some funny glances tho. I wasnt convinced I was getting the right price but I knew it was fairly ballpark. Not something I am in the habit of doing.