Rate his bluff 600NL?

pok3rplaya

He's 24/14 slightly too agressive.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($495.70)
SB ($715.75)
BB ($768)
UTG ($753.15)
Hero ($1053.25)
CO ($734.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, J. SB posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls $6, Hero raises to $30, 4 folds, UTG calls $24.

Flop: ($69) 9, J, A(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $50, UTG calls $50.

Turn: ($169) T(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $120, UTG calls $120.

River: ($409) 8(2 players)
UTG leads for $400, hero folds.

Final Pot: $809

Goodluck2me

well you cant call without queen/super specific read so ya likey

RasTa

Could be a busted flush draw....

pok3rplaya

goodluck2me wrote:

well you cant call without queen/super specific read so ya likey

So you put him on exactly QJ?

RasTa

non sense.

valor

he definitely calls the flop with QJ

If this is a bluff, its a good one

I cant see any hand he can be bluffing with really - if he had a low flush draw he would cr the flop [given the aggressive read] or show some aggression somewhere

Players at this level are generally not good enough to take a made hand [ie, a worse 2 pair] and bluff when they realise they dont have the best hand. If he has a worse made hand here he will check and hope you check behind, and maybe call if you bet. He wont pot the river. so he either has a total bluff or has you beat, and I cant see many hands that are total bluffs that he c/c 2 streets with - so fold.

valor

on a side point - would you value bet if he checks?

NickyOD

valor wrote:

on a side point - would you value bet if he checks?

definitely

pok3rplaya

As far as I can see the only hand he can have that beats me is QJ.

And I check behind on river if he checks.

AS_PokerKing

He could've been some spa-stic with pocket 7's who just didn't wanna give them up ( alot of players like that)...he coulda had A Q with top pair after flop with possible staight draw ... but if he was just calling the whole way to the river and then came out betting after the river you can be sure he was probably fishing for something and caught ... hate when that happens if only u could send a virus to his computer lol

ocallagh

pok3rplaya wrote:

As far as I can see the only hand he can have that beats me is QJ.

And I check behind on river if he checks.

Against aggressive players I would value bet the river, 180 or so and fold to a push. There are a lot of two pair hands out there that may well pay you off and it would be weird if he checked the Q into you.

As played I fold. He has QJ/AQ more often than not.

pok3rplaya

Oh yeah sorry I bet the river, I thought I had AK there for a second.

Captain Tom

ocallagh wrote:

Against aggressive players I would value bet the river, 180 or so and fold to a push. There are a lot of two pair hands out there that may well pay you off and it would be weird if he checked the Q into you.

As played I fold. He has QJ/AQ more often than not.

if villian is good here i dont value bet the river.betting $180 into a $400 pot looks like a thin value bet and if villian is smart he can push you off here.

also i cant see villian paying off with worse 2 pair.the way the hand played out villian is only beating air(because pokerplaya isnt v/betting small 2 pair) and i dont think hero shows up with air very often.

ocallagh

Captain Tom wrote:

if villian is good here i dont value bet the river.betting $180 into a $400 pot looks like a thin value bet and if villian is smart he can push you off here.

also i cant see villian paying off with worse 2 pair.the way the hand played out villian is only beating air(because pokerplaya isnt v/betting small 2 pair) and i dont think hero shows up with air very often.

I think it's much more likely we get called by a worse two pair than bluffed here however it is marginal because we're risking 580 to win 180. Against certain aggressive opponents I definitely think it's +EV.