Hey Mona watcha gonna do, gonna build a house next door to you

fuzzbox

1/2
Villain is like 18/5

Stacks 200

Preflop
utg+1 opens to 7, I make it 22 on the CO with QQ, villain cold calls in the blinds, utg+1 folds.

Flop (50)
973 r
check, check

Turn (50)
7
check, I bet 35, he calls

River (120)
To
He open shoves for 160 or so, and he does it fast. Your move einstein

BobSloane

I think I call. Any more info on how he's been playing besides his stats? Is this strange for him or what. It may look to him like you have AK and he may have JJ. Would he go this nuts with pocket 10s? Would he be this sneaky with AA or KK?

yahoo_moe

Well, I'd probably bet the flop but maybe the overpair isn't as vulnerable at 1/2 and that's obviously not what you're asking anyway so I'll move on... his stats mean I'm ruling out the straight or a dodgy 9-10 unless I've seen him do anything mental so I think it's another pair. AA, KK, 10-10, 9-9, 7-7 and 3-3 are all beating you by the time of the shove but JJ are still behind...

I don't think he checks a set to you twice cos I don't think he should risk you checking behind again on the turn - of course, it depends on how he sees you, but for the moment, I'm ruling out 9-9 and 3-3. 7-7 is obviously hugely unlikely - if he's got it, fair enough but I'm not sure there's any way of knowing from how the hand panned out. If he's shoving with AA or KK, then he's presuming you haven't reraised pre-flop with 3-3, 9-9 or 10-10 and probably putting you on JJ, QQ or A-K - I think that'd be a fair enough read so either of those I think are quite possible on the river. Having said that, I'm not sure why he wouldn't reraise himself PF (esp. with KK) when he could easily end up playing a 3-way out of position

Then there's 10-10, which he could've played that way PF, on the flop and turn but I don't think he shoves as soon as he hits top set (unless he thinks you'll pay off the double-bluff strong=weak=strong overbet, but for the moment I'm saying no).

As for what you're beating that he cold calls a reraise with PF, it's only JJ...

So I have him on AA or JJ and you're getting almost 2-1 to find out - I've just spent a while trying to figure it out and I could still be way off so god knows what I'd do in 20 seconds... I reckon I'd call

I'm gonna say that you make a heroic call and he tables JJ

opr

Its a fold for me. Don't really see alot we beat apart from JJ.

Opr

cardshark202

Looks like TT or 99. I would fold.

robinlacey

don't tell anyone,but i decided a while ago that i was never going to call an overbet again on the river without the nuts or very close to it,except in very exceptional circumstances

i actually overbet bluff rivers quite a lot,but as far as i can tell nearly no one else does....its so often the nuts-obviously sometimes its not,but i don't think its a bluff often enough for calling to ever be profitable

pok3rplaya

I would tell myself to fold then press the call button.

cooker3

robinlacey wrote:

don't tell anyone,but i decided a while ago that i was never going to call an overbet again on the river without the nuts or very close to it,except in very exceptional circumstances

i actually overbet bluff rivers quite a lot,but as far as i can tell nearly no one else does....its so often the nuts-obviously sometimes its not,but i don't think its a bluff often enough for calling to ever be profitable

Aye, I agree with that, it's a trend I have noticed. People think I will be clever and make it look like a bluff but I have rarely if it all seen it be anything other then a monster.

valor

i think this is quite an easy fold, also I would sometimes check the turn again

fuzzbox

Ya, I folded.
It has to be TT/99/77 I guess.

ianmc38

The way the hands been played I'd probably fold. I overbet quite alot these days on the river with monsters and air and rarely call those huge bets without a specific read or history...