Folding KK preflop

Iago

.25/.50 Full ring game, new network, new table 2nd hand of the day

SB posts small blind .25
BB posts big blind .50
UTG folds
UTG+1($59) raises to $3
MP1 folds
Hero ($47) Kd Ks re-raises to $10
all fold to UTG+1 who moves all-in for $49 more
Hero...??

How often do we fold here?

If we call, how often do you think we're ahead?

with no information other than that given above, do you call or fold?

El Stuntman

against a a complete unknown at .25/.50 you must call every time

phantom_lord

yeah insta-call

TheRock

Instant call.
AK is more likely than AA.

cardshark202

lol folding against pretty much anyone would be a disgrace

Iago

cardshark202 wrote:

lol folding against pretty much anyone would be a disgrace

intuitively I know that, but when someone raises from such an early position and then pushes for 100bbs to a re-raise you have to limit their hand-range significantly.

So it's AA-KK, and maybe AK or QQ. How often are you pushing from there when you don't have AA? How often do you push in this situation with JJ or less or AQ or less?

cardshark202

Against players who consider folding KK here I could push almost anything. Seriously if you run into AA here don't give it a second thought, its just unlucky. Some guys are pushing JJ QQ AK AQs and even worse at times. Never fold KK preflop for 100bbs. Never.

El Stuntman

Iago wrote:

intuitively I know that, but when someone raises from such an early position and then pushes for 100bbs to a re-raise you have to limit their hand-range significantly.

So it's AA-KK, and maybe AK or QQ. How often are you pushing from there when you don't have AA? How often do you push in this situation with JJ or less or AQ or less?

key word highlighted, it's not you, it's your average .25/.50 donkey who probably has AQ or something equally ****e

it sounds like you ran into AA here (otherwise you wouldn't be posting this), that's just unlucky but continue to ship away in this situation and it is guaranteed to be long-run profitable....

phantom_lord

well if i thought that no one would call with less than aa when I shove after they 3bet my ep raise, I'd shove with everything!

Iago

phantom_lord wrote:

well if i thought that no one would call with less than aa when I shove after they 3bet my ep raise, I'd shove with everything!

granted, but then you wouldn't know what I was folding either!

I did run into AA, and to be honest that didn't bother me. It'll happen and there's little you can do about it.

I was thinking about it afterwards, and when something is so telegraphed it's hard to not beat yourself up about being unable to get away from it. Maybe as el stuntman says it's remembering that you aren't playing the other hand and without detailed notes your ideas go out the window.

I still think I should have got away from it, but I don't think I ever will.

One more question, if you work off the premise that these players are (for the most part) donks, do you fold QQ here?

BigCityBanker

Iago wrote:

How often do we fold here?

Never

Iago wrote:

How often are we ahead?

enough to make the call the correct play

cardshark202

Without read I call QQ here all day.

phantom_lord

not a great example at all for many reasons, but yeah, range is greater than aa.

LDoggy is at seat 0 with $191.25.
themffulton is at seat 1 with $182.65.
blatz06 is at seat 2 with $64.55.
phantom_lord is at seat 3 with $77.80.
_RonMexico7 is at seat 4 with $107.60.
lackofcolor_ is at seat 5 with $99.50 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 0.

themffulton posts the small blind of $.50.
blatz06 posts the big blind of $1.

LDoggy: -- --
themffulton: -- --
blatz06: -- --
phantom_lord: Jc Jh
_RonMexico7: -- --

Pre-flop:

phantom_lord raises to $4. _RonMexico7 calls. LDoggy
calls. themffulton re-raises to $21. blatz06 folds.
phantom_lord re-raises to $72. _RonMexico7 folds.
LDoggy folds. themffulton folds. phantom_lord is
returned $51 (uncalled).

gocall01

Iago wrote:

granted, but then you wouldn't know what I was folding either!

I did run into AA, and to be honest that didn't bother me. It'll happen and there's little you can do about it.

I was thinking about it afterwards, and when something is so telegraphed it's hard to not beat yourself up about being unable to get away from it. Maybe as el stuntman says it's remembering that you aren't playing the other hand and without detailed notes your ideas go out the window.

I still think I should have got away from it, but I don't think I ever will.

One more question, if you work off the premise that these players are (for the most part) donks, do you fold QQ here?

This is exactly how I feel.
When you are multitabling 3/4 tables it is amazing the numberof times you see this situation (you may not even be in the hand).
AA v KK and you go "C'est la vie".

Hitman Actual

Here's a maths viewpoint (assuming people aren't pissed off with me popping up with these!):

Pot = 70, 50 to call, so the BE % = 41.66%.

Some pokerstove results:
KK v [QQ+, AKs, AKo]: 57%:43%

So the EV calc assuming each hand is equally likely is:

EV = 0.57($70) + 0.43(-$50) = $18.4 => clearly +EV

---

To see how often he has to have AA here rather than QQ,KK,AK:

KK v AA: 18%:82%
KK v [QQ, KK, AK]: 73%:27%

X is the EV case below where we're up against AA, and [1-X] is the case where we're up against [QQ, KK, AK]. Solve for X to get the % above which he must have AA for a call to be unprofitable:

% = X[0.18($70) + 0.82(-$50)] + (1-X)[0.73($70) + 0.27($-50)]
X = 0.569 = ~57%.

So if you think he has AA more than 57% of the time here, it's a fold (where the alternative hands are QQ, KK, AK). That seems like a hell of a lot of the time.

---

For QQ against the same range:
QQ v [QQ+, AKs, AKo]: 40:60

EV = 0.4($70) + 06.(-$50) = -$2

So a call against that exact range is unprofitable. But I'm sure the pushing ranges will be wider than that at this level.

---

Iago

thanks for that Lenny. It kind of encapsulates the point I'm trying to make.

If he only has to have AA 57% of the time for this to be unprofitable for us, and given that he has shown strength and I seem unimpressed, that surely has to narrow his range.

Within that narrowed range we're including AK and QQ, but how often do they push for stacks in this position, rather than call and evaluate the flop (I know he's out of position and that dictates his decision, but then he's always out of position raising from here)

My take on it is that this is AA at least 50-60% of the time. It's AK 20-30% of the time QQ or KK 10% of the time. I'm calling but I'm beating myself up afterwards.

phantom lord, did you have any notes on that player, observances from previous hands? What made you think he wouldn't call and what range did you put him on?

yahoo_moe

Iago wrote:

this is AA at least 50-60% of the time

I don't play a lot of cash but this seems a big % to assign to aces - I can't see A-A being so much more likely than A-K given that there's 16 ways to make A-K and only 6 ways to make aces...

If he'd turned over A-K or Q-Q, I doubt you post this hand & you'd surely be happy with your call - just because it was aces this time doesn't make it the wrong call

unless of course, you definitely think this is aces 60% + of the time

phantom_lord

Iago wrote:

phantom lord, did you have any notes on that player, observances from previous hands? What made you think he wouldn't call and what range did you put him on?

no, as it happened, I was multi-tabling, and the software is a lot faster than I was used to so I was having trouble keeping up!

I just had him pegged as a decent player, and thought this was a really obvious spot to 3bet light, so I thought his range was air a lot, ak a decent amount, and jj+ a small percentage. That's why I don't think it's a great example, it just happened to a recent one that I had to hand.

Iago

yahoo_moe wrote:

I don't play a lot of cash but this seems a big % to assign to aces - I can't see A-A being so much more likely than A-K given that there's 16 ways to make A-K and only 6 ways to make aces...

If he'd turned over A-K or Q-Q, I doubt you post this hand & you'd surely be happy with your call - just because it was aces this time doesn't make it the wrong call

unless of course, you definitely think this is aces 60% + of the time

I think I'd of posted it anyway, it's not so much the result I'm unhappy with, the money isn't significant one way or the other. It's more the thought process that got me there. It's probably a situation where I should be happy getting my money in everytime, but it still feels like an elementary mistake.

valor

never ever fold here

Hectorjelly

I think QQ would be an easy fold here, and I think there are times to fold KK with 100bbs; they are probably extremely rare at 25 50 though!

Flushdraw

Just as a matter of interest, i was playing the €100 freezeout in the SE on Monday night. 7k starting stack and 70 odd runners. Very first hand, i get dealt KK on the button. UTG and 2 others limp (25/50) so make it 350 to go. UTG then reraises to 1200. I make it 2800 and he pushes for 7k.

I've no reads on opponent and its the 1st time i'd ever seen him so i had to go by what tells i could pick off him. How often do you fold this?

fuzzbox

cardshark202 wrote:

Never fold KK preflop for 100bbs. Never.

Every time I read advice like this, I end up running KK into AA about 6 times the next day, even when the AA guy effectively flips over his cards.
Once, a guy has AK and he hits an Ace and once a guy has QQ and he hits a 4-card flush.

And I never hit a K neither.

FullOf..IT

fuzzbox wrote:

Every time I read advice like this, I end up running KK into AA about 6 times the next day, even when the AA guy effectively flips over his cards.

I thought this only happened to me. If Cardshark can get banned for posting about soem yellow spice, surely the mods can see it fit to ban him for awful advice?

fuzzbox

yahoo_moe wrote:

I don't play a lot of cash but this seems a big % to assign to aces - I can't see A-A being so much more likely than A-K given that there's 16 ways to make A-K and only 6 ways to make aces...

Given that you hold two Kings, this is not true.

There are 8 ways to have AK when you hold two Kings and 6 ways to have AA.

fuzzbox

Flushdraw wrote:

Just as a matter of interest, i was playing the €100 freezeout in the SE on Monday night. 7k starting stack and 70 odd runners. Very first hand, i get dealt KK on the button. UTG and 2 others limp (25/50) so make it 350 to go. UTG then reraises to 1200. I make it 2800 and he pushes for 7k.

I've no reads on opponent and its the 1st time i'd ever seen him so i had to go by what tells i could pick off him. How often do you fold this?

In the SE ... never.

MickL

i folded KK once Prelop to Daitho in a tourney the was a raise and dave pushed i figured dave was pushin with the boots the other guy called dave turney over JJ the other guy had A9 and JJ won ILL NEVER EVERRRRRRR FOLD KK AGAIN

Iago

fuzzbox wrote:

Every time I read advice like this, I end up running KK into AA about 6 times the next day, even when the AA guy effectively flips over his cards.
Once, a guy has AK and he hits an Ace and once a guy has QQ and he hits a 4-card flush.

And I never hit a K neither.

yay for cardsharks advice, just re-popped to $65 with KK got called by AA and spiked a K.

Never fold KK here

MrPillowTalk

You would be doing very little wrong never folding KK in this spot, in fact I would say that if you get in the habit of "reading someone for aces" then it will cost you more to fold than to call in the long run even if villains line is super strong.

Without player specific experience like notes saying "never ever ever ever 4 bets" then folding isnt an option, and at .25/.50 its just never ever a fold . . . . . ever.

BigCityBanker

Flushdraw wrote:

Just as a matter of interest, i was playing the €100 freezeout in the SE on Monday night. 7k starting stack and 70 odd runners. Very first hand, i get dealt KK on the button. UTG and 2 others limp (25/50) so make it 350 to go. UTG then reraises to 1200. I make it 2800 and he pushes for 7k.

I've no reads on opponent and its the 1st time i'd ever seen him so i had to go by what tells i could pick off him. How often do you fold this?

Im not folding this Tony. ever!

Hectorjelly

When the action is as described by flushdraw, then you can seriously consider folding. If theres a single raise and an all in folding is terrible.