Soccer Gambling - how do bookies make the odds

AdrianII

Soccer Gambling - how do bookies make the odds

just wondering if any body knows how book makers get the odds for soccer matches

eg Liverpool 13/8 and man u 13/8

what factors are taken into account, form, league position.

Any body have any web links on this topic

Thanks

copacetic

they take everything you can think of into account, but it boils down to the expert in the bookies opinion on who will win for initial odds then they adjust them based on the betting.

eg for game above, pool at home, haven't lost in 30, evens out that utd have
been on a great run of form. If you look around you will prob find slightly diff odds at other bookies..

Kingp35

Well the main thing is current form, league position etc but the bokkies also set the odds according to a book percentage, that is that no matter what the outcome of the match, the bookies still make money

AdrianII

Any one have the exact formulae or series of event that they consider


from what i can gather it is

Home advantage, curent form(last 6 games or so), league position

i have the ratio of the probability of the reslts when the odds are fixed, but what is getting me is how they come up with a set of odds.

Hope im not confusing any one

RaiseTheBlinds

Adrian,...... it is often based on an "ELO SYSTEM"......
anybody whoplays chess should be familiar with this points system,

the main thing taken into account is the current form,..... with your last game weighing in significanly higher than your 2ne or 3rd last game etc.

each team in the league has a elo points tally,.... which is calcul;ated in a slightly complex manner. considering score margin,

i.e you recieve 100 points for beating arsenal in Emirates Stadium
you recieve 65 points for beating arsenal on your own home turf.

you may get 30 points for beating watford away, and 10 points for beating them at home.

each team's elo is re-tallied after every game... and should be the most accurate measure long term.

after the basic elo calculation, various other factors are taken into account :

1. importance of game , i.e arsenal only need a draw to go thru, then they may not be pushing out for an all-out attack affair, thus increasing the arsenal win odds.

2. injuries , each player may or may not have an elo rating , which is difficult for the bookie, as measuring an "elo" on a player is quite difficult and usually based on personal opinions unless they are strikers or goalkeepers who can be measured on goals scored/conceeded/assisted.

3. physcolgical ,
a bookie will follow the way the public are thinking and screw them on shorter odds than is fair if possible. i.e Chelsea beat norwich 4-0 in f.a cup, and thier odds drop temporarily on winning the Champions league !!!
they know people will be in the mind-frame of backing chelsea on many available markets !!!

now chelsea beating a lowly Norwich 4-0 is no great achievments, but couple that with the fact that it is been screened on TV, to millions of people, and will hog a large section of the back page on the tabloids sport section.

now , does anybody think that chel 4-0 fa cup win make them any more likely to win the champions league ?..... but the casual punters are suckered each and every time.

4. Balance :
for the bookie to make money, he needs equal liability on every side of the bet , WIN DRAW LOSS.
so when PaddyPower opens the market on Ireland to beat San Marino ,
you get Ireland at 1/50 or 1/100 ,.......knowing that alll money taken will be on ireland only, and the chance of clearing profit on this game is soooo slim.
but they cant afford not to post it up on offer, wouldnt be much of a bookie if they didnt have a market available for irisah punters to back thier country.

now the chances of ireland beating san marino , ireland should probably do it maybe 14 out of every 15 games or so, but not 49 out of 50, or 99 out of 100 as the odds suggest.
so the point here is,..... the bookie will be discouraging anybody from betting here with such a short price on offer.

5. the other Bookies !! :-
the compiler needs to know how the other firms will price up their markets.

if they offer 11/10 for arsenal draw no bet , .... and their competitor next door offers 11/10 for chelsea draw no bet, then somebody's getting into trouble !!!!
a bookie shouldnt gamble themselves !!!! and definately dont want this scenario ,...... but they also need a competitive price to offer, cause they want to be the ones who recieve the punters money,..... they certainly dont want the money going to the competition next door !!!

AdrianII

thanks a million for the last post, it has really cleared it up for me, and i did a quick check on that elo system on the web, has lots of pages of info, thanks for the help

yabadabado

great post raisetheblinds.a mate of mine wrks n pp doing the odds he has a degree in stats but reckons its a major headache