2007 English Classics

kincsem

I've just had an ante-post €10 win yankee on the 2007 English Classics with Paddy Power (cost €110 - 1 four fold, 4 trebles, 6 doubles).

1000 Guineas: Finsceal Beo © 7/2
2000 Guineas: Dutch Art © 9/1
Vodafone Oaks 2007: Passage Of Time © 10/1
Vodafone Derby 2007: Eastern Anthem © 33/1
..............................................................

1000 Guineas: Finsceal Beo © 7/2: Jim Bolger
She looks to have the form and I think the second favourite, Sander Camilla, might not last a mile.

2000 Guineas: Dutch Art © 9/1: Peter Chapple-Hyam
Teofilo is the form choice, but I expect him to more of a 10f/12f horse this year. Dutch Art might not last the mile. Lack of form lines to the big two means he might flop, or surprise them.

Vodafone Oaks 2007: Passage Of Time © 10/1: Henry Cecil
She won a top race over 10f at Deauville as a 2yo, beating colts and fillies, so her stamina looks assured. Finsceal Beo will not last the Oaks trip. As far as I can see Passage of Time is not yet entered in the Oaks.

Vodafone Derby 2007: Eastern Anthem © 33/1: Saeed Bin Suroor
This might be the one to give Frankie his first Derby. He only ran once but won by 5l heavily eased. This is a speculative bet. His dam Kazzia won the 1000 and Oaks.

ChuckProphet

you're a brave man - what's the return for 4 winners?

kincsem

Four winners would go over the Paddy Power €200k limit. The reason I posted is to get some discussion going. I like to see what others pick, and why.

My €20 win accumul last year failed but had 10/1; 14/1; 16/1 winners. Race For The Stars, 8th in the 1000 Guineas, had blown it early.

Taff

33/1 10/1 9/1 7/2 = 168300
The Fourfold = 168300

33/1 10/1 7/2 = 16830
33/1 10/1 9/1 = 37400
33/1 9/1 7/2 = 15300
10/1 9/1 7/2 = 4950
The Trebles = 74480

33/1 7/2 = 1530
33/1 9/1 = 3400
33/1 10/1 = 3740
10/1 7/2 = 495
10/1 9/1 = 1100
9/1 7/2 = 450
The Doubles = 10715


The Total For Your Yankee Bet = 253495

Knowing you break the limit you should have placed it with two firms, it could cost you 50K.

Best of luck

ChuckProphet

don't PP do 11 for 10 in a yankee?

Tush

Hope your wrong with your Derby selection kincsem as I am on Teofilo at the very nice odds of 10/1 to win this race,but good luck with the rest.;)

seand333

I think Holy Roman Emperor in the 2000 guineas and Teofilio in the Derby could be serious threats if they progress from last year. Finsceal Beo did look a cut above the other fillies last year. Anything can happen from 2 to 3 yrs old though

wb

I'm another Teofilo man, but I don't really bet ante-post. Dutching Finsceal Beo and Sander Camillo for the 1000 guineas offers a nice price at the moment.

kincsem

I think Sander Camillo might not last the 1000 guineas distance, and am more certain Finsceal Beo will not last the Oaks distance.

I got the Turform annual in the post yesterday and am reading up on the Irish horses. I get the feeling Teofilo will be more suited to the Derby. Bolger says he likes to eat and keeping the weight off him over the winter might be difficult. The old saying is the 2000 Guineas goes to the fittest horse and the Derby to the best horse.

The more I read about Finsceal Beo the more I like her 1000 Guineas chances.
Her two defeats - second coming back to racing after a hairline fracture, and sixth in the Goffs Million at the Curragh when coming second in the stands-side group. The far side group dominated the race.
In the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp she set a new record time for the race.

Taff

I have reservations whether Teofilio will act on the Epsom course, being a lump of a horse. He may also struggle in his three year old campaign as the others will be catching up with him (growth wise).

He was a super juvenile and I was lucky enough to see him run a couple of times.

kincsem

Taff wrote:

I have reservations whether Teofilio will act on the Epsom course, being a lump of a horse. He may also struggle in his three year old campaign as the others will be catching up with him (growth wise).
He was a super juvenile and I was lucky enough to see him run a couple of times.

You can't say that. :eek: That's heresy.
I like your thinking. When everyone is saying one thing I like to take an opposing view as there is value to be had. Celtic Swing a few years back (1995?) won the Racing Post as a 2yo by 12 lengths, was a "Triple Crown horse", just failed in the Guineas, and struggled home in the French Derby.
Teofilo needed to win the Dewhurst by two or three lengths to justify his present price.

An Gaiscíoch

kincsem wrote:

Four winners would go over the Paddy Power €200k limit. The reason I posted is to get some discussion going. I like to see what others pick, and why.

My €20 win accumul last year failed but had 10/1; 14/1; 16/1 winners. Race For The Stars, 8th in the 1000 Guineas, had blown it early.

FYI - You'd prob get the million payout

An Gaiscíoch

An Gaisc&#237 wrote: »

FYI - You'd prob get the million payout

And by that I mean you should get your full 250 odd grand

kincsem

In my opinion this "gamble" on Mount Nelson for the English Derby is all smoke. His pedigree looks like that of a miler. All the sires on the sire and on the dam side of his pedigree were all milers or sprinter/milers. He might stay in a small field, slow pace, fast ground race, but I'm not tempted.