potentially interesting new blog

robinlacey

http://thecardsharper.blogspot.com/

this is a blog set up by van veen off twoplustwo hlsn

he's not really one of the "big name" posters,but over the years i have found his posts to be among the best on the forum,and since the purpose of the blog is to teach people how to think about the game it could be very good indeed.

there's only an intro and one post so far but if he keeps it up it should be well worth reading.

Marq

thanks for the link robin, I like his verbosity.

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

dvdfan

Anyone want to clarify exactly what hes trying to say here:

What does the 6,16 and 4 mean after each hand and where is getting 94 hands from. Does it just mean that from a sample of 94 hands from an opponent you expect to raise the top 7% of hands he will have AA 6 times,KK 6 times, AK 16 times etc etc etc - Its just where hes coming up with the number 94 thats confusing me

Taken From The Blog wrote:

suppose a simple position-naive opponent is opening 7% of his hands at a shorthanded nl50 table. it is not unreasonable to believe he is opening the top 7% of all hands, so let's look at what the top 7% of hands actually are: 88+, ATs, KTs, AQo+. let's enumerate each hand combo and look more closely at the results. you can use the free program PokerStove to help with this sort of thing.

AA - 6 (roughly 0.44% of all possible hands)
KK - 6
QQ - 6
JJ - 6
TT - 6
99 - 6
88 - 6
AK - 16 (roughly 1.2% of all possible hands)
AQ - 16
AJs - 4 (roughly 0.3% of all possible hands)
ATs - 4
KQs - 4
KJs - 4
KTs - 4

---

Total hands: 94.
JJ+: 24 or 25.5%
JJ+, AK: 40 or 42.5%
Unpaired hands: 52 or 55.3%

Commissar

dvdfan wrote:

Anyone want to clarify exactly what hes trying to say here:

What does the 6,16 and 4 mean

That would be possible combinations, I assume.
For his AK example; 4 Aces * 4 Kings = 16 possible hands

The pocket pairs have only 6 possible combinations of suits (ie:6h6c, 6h6d, 6h6s, 6d6c, 6d6s, 6s6c), whereas hands like KQs occur once per suit


edit: I finally contributed to the forum. How about that.

Rnger

he's refferring to the amount of ways each hand can be made up. AQs for example can only be in four variations since there are 4 suits

if your opponent is just raising those 7% of hands(88+,KTs+), he will only be raising those 94 variations

Hitman Actual

dvdfan wrote:

Anyone want to clarify exactly what hes trying to say here:

What does the 6,16 and 4 mean after each hand and where is getting 94 hands from. Does it just mean that from a sample of 94 hands from an opponent you expect to raise the top 7% of hands he will have AA 6 times,KK 6 times, AK 16 times etc etc etc - Its just where hes coming up with the number 94 thats confusing me

Take AA: There are six possible ways to combine the four aces into your 2-card starting hand. This is calculated as: 4C2 = (4x3)/(2x1) = 6. This follows for any pocket pair.

For AK you have 8 possible cards (AAAAKKKK) to create your 2 card starting hand . This is 8C2 = (8x7)/(2x1) = 28 combinations. But of these combinations, 12 are AA and KK combinations, leaving 16 AK combs. This follows for any non-pair hand (78, KQ, 72, etc).

For the % of starting hands that, say, AA is, you work out the total number of starting hands. This is 52C2 = (52x51)/(2x1) = 1326. Divide 6 into this number to get the AA %: 6/1326 = 0.45%. For AK, it's 16/1326 = 1.2%.

Edit: Good link Robin. I hope this guy keeps his blog up to date; finally some logical-thinking poker advice.

valor

where did you get this link? what does he post as on 2+2? dont remember any posts by van veen

robinlacey

i just noticed the link in his location
he posts as van veen,he's only got a few hundred posts so he's not one of the main posters,but over the years ive noticed that often when theres a fairly complex/interesting strategy/theory discussion going on he tends to pop up with some interesting ideas.