Limited Liability Laying

Topcat101

Guys have anyone here tired a laying system with limited Liability to the orginal bank.

Say laying 100pts per race with a danger of max 30pts if any one of the selections win ?

colsku

Topcat101 wrote:

Guys have anyone here tired a laying system with limited Liability to the orginal bank.

Say laying 100pts per race with a danger of max 30pts if any one of the selections win ?

I transfered my SSIA into Betfair a few months back (20k) and started laying horses every day....

I used the following rules/stake plan:

Never lay my selected horse if its odds were above 7.0

Only Lay the horse to win 2.5% of my account balance before commission (€500)

I was recommended to actually lay to win 5% of my bank account but found this FAR TOO HIGH.

From my experience I would suggest you lay to win 2% of your bank balance if you are laying similar odds to me. Any higher, and a run of bad results will knock the s h i t out of your bank.

Dont be greedy...

wb

30% is sheer madness. A few winners in the one day (which does happen) would virtually wipe half of your bank out. I do a bit of laying, and my liability on each selection is rarely more than 1% of the bank. My cut off is 10.0. Also, you can't just lay random horses, you need a strategy that is proven to be profitable.

colsku

wb wrote:

Also, you can't just lay random horses, you need a strategy that is proven to be profitable.

I would have thought that to be obvious...

No matter how good your staking plan is, if you're laying the wrong horses, you'll end up in big trouble.

wb

colsku wrote:

I would have thought that to be obvious...

No matter how good your staking plan is, if you're laying the wrong horses, you'll end up in big trouble.

It might be obvious to most people, and hopefully it is to the OP, but you would be amazed at the amount of people who think laying most of the field is a good idea, and a quick way to get rich.

Topcat101

Ok so if I have a bank of 2000 with liabilty of 2% would be a maximum exposure of 40e on each selection.

not laying anything above 5/1.

risk versus reward on 5/1 would be, risk 40 to win 8

risk versus reward on 4/1 would be, risk 40 to win 10

risk versus reward on 3/1 would be, risk 40 to win 13

risk versus reward on 2/1 would be, risk 40 to win 20

risk versus reward on 1/1 would be, risk 40 to win 40

Not laying anything with odds worst than 8/13

I was thinking of laying Favourites in none grade 1 races.

Does anyones have the stats for what % of favourites actually win races + average starting prices ???

colsku

[I was thinking of laying Favourites in none grade 1 races.

Does anyones have the stats for what % of favourites actually win races + average starting prices ???[/QUOTE]

Laying favourites is a dangerous game, they're usually favourites for a reason...

wb

Backing the clear favourite (no joint or co favs) in all races (flat and NH) since 1999 shows a strike rate of 33.7%. In monetary terms, the ROI (return on investment) for the backer shows a loss at 92.4% - meaning an average of €92.70 would be returned for every €100 staked. However, this does not simply mean that layers on betfair can pocket the 7.6% remainder, because the above figures are to SP. To get your bets matched on the exchanges, 95% of the time will require that you offer better odds than SP - so you need to be selective and watch for ‘false favourites’ instead of blindly laying the fav. Be aware that the stats differ from Flat to AW to NH and also by type of race.

The flat season is coming up, so I presume you want the figures for that excluding the group races?

Well, backing the clear favourite in all flat & AW races excluding Group 1,2 & 3 since 1999 shows a SR of 32% and a ROI of 92.8% for the backer.

To bring things more up to date, the results of backing the clear fav in every flat & AW race (excluding group 1,2 & 3) from Jan-Dec 2006 shows a strike rate of 31.4% and a ROI of 93.2% for the backer.

GreenHorn

colsku wrote:

I transfered my SSIA into Betfair a few months back (20k) and started laying horses every day....

I used the following rules/stake plan:

Never lay my selected horse if its odds were above 7.0

Only Lay the horse to win 2.5% of my account balance before commission (€500)

I was recommended to actually lay to win 5% of my bank account but found this FAR TOO HIGH.

From my experience I would suggest you lay to win 2% of your bank balance if you are laying similar odds to me. Any higher, and a run of bad results will knock the s h i t out of your bank.

Dont be greedy...

How's it been going for you so far? Up? Down? Even?

gamb1or

wb wrote:

Well, backing the clear favourite in all flat & AW races excluding Group 1,2 & 3 since 1999 shows a SR of 32% and a ROI of 92.8% for the backer.

What about just normal flat racing? , i'd say all weather being included brings that stat down.

wb

gamb1or wrote:

What about just normal flat racing? , i'd say all weather being included brings that stat down.

Excluding AW brings the total up but only by a tiny fraction:

All Flat Races excluding AW 1999-2006:

All to SP

Bets: 25567
Wins: 8239
Strike Rate: 32.2%
Return on Investment: 92.9%
Placed (inc. wins): 15572
Place Strike Rate: 60.9%
Place Return on investment 92.1%