6 Nations - can we win it?

davyjose

I think we'll win our remaining matches, and I think now that the pressure is off, we'll win them comfortably. The question is, can France be beaten? And if so, who will do it. Personally I'll be surprised if the GS is won, but I can't see us overhauling France with points difference.

Ponster

Just as you can't see Ireland being beaten I can't see France being beaten either.

France for the GS and Ireland second (again).

buck65

Could see England turning over the French, they will be tough opposition for us also, don't write them off yet.

Sangre

I see someone random like Wales beating France.

Yea the French have a tendency to bottle it. Watch this space

Diamondmaker

On the plus side:

France go to Twickenham, so possibly the most likely team have them with home advantage and should give them a go.

On the minus:

France losing may not be enough! Assume Eng beat France and we beat Eng. Its gonna be a 3 way tie on points. Still a long way to go from here.

On the plus side in this sceario:

Last game of season a proud and embaressed welsh host england.

Bottom line best case we are in a 2 way tie on point with france...will we score more than them in this scenario? Historically NO, we never put the points away Vesues Italy. this year we are away to them and fr have some nice points in bag.

I cant see all these permuations panning out, not to mention a slip of our own or Englan pipping us to 3rd on points etc.

Any one know the bookies odds at the minute?

Ponster

Deleted User wrote:

Yea the French have a tendency to bottle it. Watch this space

True but 3 6N wins out of the last 5 years and with just a 1-man England team to stand in their way...

Chucky the tree

4-6 France
11-4 England
7-2 Ireland

France are good value. I cant see them gtting turned over on points difference.

Sangre

Oh yeah, I don't think Ireland can win it.

Erin Go Brath

Vincent Clercs try has ended Irelands championship hopes I fear! Its probably going to be a Silver medal again, provided we do the biz in the last few games. France, apart from a 100% record, have racked up a serious points for average in Rome, and even if they lose 1 of their final few games, and thats a big if, they're still gonna win the 6N's on points scored/tries scored i think. Ireland just aren't a scoring 6 tries kind of team. Its like last year all over again!!!

nacho libre

France will win it again. Still, in six months time, when Ireland beat them, being Six Nations champions for 2007 won't be any solace to them.

davyjose

I think we'll hammer the remaining teams. I think we'll score record points possibly against all three. I just am not sure the french will lose. I agree with Sangre, Wales could be that team. They did it 2 years ago.

Saruman

Why is everyone so sure we will win against England? they are a good team and Wilkenson is class!

Sangre

They actually aren't a 'good team', they're utterly average. They lack any attacking flair. Wilkinson can get kicks? Yeah, well O'Gara isn't half bad either.

Erin Go Brath

We should beat England. We've certainly the better backs. Up front I suspect things will cancel each other out. Our scrum has done better than expected, and our lineout is as good as expected. (Well against the French, anyway. It wasnt too hot in the first game) This is Englands first real test of the 6N's, they could surprise us, I suppose. However, an up-for-it Ireland should have 10 points on them at least! Come on Ireland!!!!

Steffano2002

France should, IMO, do the GS (beating Ireland was the toughest task).

However, we can indeed slip up... Against Wales? Perhaps... Stade de France is not a "fortress" for us and they did it last time they came down...
Beaten by England? Always a very tough team to beat away (that's why it's extra special when we do! ).

I hope we do the GS. But we probably won't... :rolleyes:

Webbs

Do you as Irish fans really care about winning the championship this year now.
I mean this as a serious question as I remember the English team and supporters when it was supposed to win GS after GS, winning championships but looking like they had lost.
That is they were so focussed on the GS knowing they had a team capable of winning that anything else was a very poor second.
Do the Irish fans and possibly the team feel the same way

GreenHell

The Grand Slam is the only prize that matters to me in the 6n and has been for the last few years. Triple crown doesn't mean jack anymore. If the attidute in the team is to view a season as successful if they win the triple crown then I'm afraid our international team is a joke.

buck65

To an extent I agree with the last couple of posts, really if we don't win the slam or the Chmpshp - which now looks unlikely -it is a failed campaign.
I think Ireland should now concentrate on winning Saturday and against Scotland and Italy wring the changes, try out some fringe players. Would love to see Paddy Wallace, Neil Best, Mick O Driscoll, Rob Kearney, S Ferris, Barry Murphy play 60minutes against good opposition, then we'd know what kind of panel we have for the world cup.

Eoin

GreenHell wrote:

The Grand Slam is the only prize that matters to me in the 6n and has been for the last few years. Triple crown doesn't mean jack anymore. If the attidute in the team is to view a season as successful if they win the triple crown then I'm afraid our international team is a joke.

How can winning the championship not count for anything with you? We have a couple of recent triple crowns under our belt, so we can probably afford to be blasé about that, but winning the 6N title is hardly beneath us.

Steffano2002

Everybody should aim to do the GS every year. To me it is the point of this tournament. Last year France won it but I wasn't ecstatic about it considering it wasn't a GS.

If a team does not aim to do the GS they shouldn't be in it really. Always aim to be the best!

Eoin

Of course you should aim to win the grand slam, but that won't define a successful (or not) season for most of the teams.

Italy don't have a chance of winning a grand slam in the near future - a good season for them is winning a game or two. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be in the tournament.

France and England have both won the competition 3 times since the inception of the 6 nations, so their respective fans may only see the Grand Slam as a good result. Ireland certainly don't have that luxury - winning the tournament should be seen as a very good result for us. Would France care if they won the world cup, but lost a pool game along the way?

Sangre

I'd agree, after the England game we should focus on blooding fringe players with a view to the WC. Although of course all Eddie wants to say is it was a 'triple crown' year so he'll play a full team for the entire championship.

Steffano2002

eoin_s wrote:

Would France care if they won the world cup, but lost a pool game along the way?

That would be comparing a league (6N) with a championship (RWC). You can't do that. Losing a pool game and winning the World Cup would be equivalent to a GS IMO.

GreenHell

For the last 5 or so years we have had the best irish team assembled, back before the last world cup winning the championship would have been a very successful season. However this team has moved on and improved and so should the standard of its fans. I'll take the point that winning the championship would reflect a good season but we're the second best team in the world, supposedly, grand slam or bust i'm afraid.

buck65

2nd best team ?, I'd reckon we're 4/5. I wouldn't fancy us against the All Blacks, Australia , S Africa or France in a knockout game.
The surprise factor is gone, we are being heralded as a great team? lads we couldn't beat an average French team at home. I personally blame all the hype about how good we are. A bit of a kick in the pants might refocus the players. Beware the English...

shrapnel222

GreenHell wrote:

For the last 5 or so years we have had the best irish team assembled, back before the last world cup winning the championship would have been a very successful season. However this team has moved on and improved and so should the standard of its fans. I'll take the point that winning the championship would reflect a good season but we're the second best team in the world, supposedly, grand slam or bust i'm afraid.

lol, i think the fans have gotten ahead of the team!!!:D


IRB World Rankings 19/02/2007 Position
(last week) Member Union Rating points
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 94.59
2(2) FRANCE 87.17
3(3) AUSTRALIA 85.55
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.71
5(5) IRELAND 83.99
6(6) ARGENTINA 79.61
7(7) ENGLAND 79.48
8(8) SCOTLAND 76.78
9(9) WALES 75.74
10(10) SAMOA 73.86

Diamondmaker

Of Cousres winnng the championship is a succesful campaign. We have not done this in a long time and this current team have not done it all.

The manner in which a potential GS was lost is of course what is colouring people into thinking a 6N is a poor season.

However we are only likely to finish 2nd so this debate really is a moot point. It WILL be dissapoiting season.

BUT if we are to discuss ifs and buts...

If somehow we do sneak the 6N it will have been the BEST season EVER for this team, as much as the GS is nice, how can that be a failure?

England at the peak took 4 years to win the GS Falling in a much more agonising ways than we did.
We are punching at that level now and realistically have 2 maybe 3 more seasons where we can go into the tournoi aiming for a GS.
I think people dont realsie or appreciate how difficult a GS is.
Ask an english fan they will tell you !!
Wales are the only team to have taken a 6N in the way they did but where are they now?
we are better off building and building than a flash in the pan.
Thats what brought Eng to a WC and this season, 6N or otherwise, will be another cruel lesson in maturity to bring to a WC where we will be one of the most experienced under pressure teams....Fra included

GreenHell

Were we not rated 2nd after the autumn internationals?

Eoin

GreenHell wrote:

For the last 5 or so years we have had the best irish team assembled, back before the last world cup winning the championship would have been a very successful season. However this team has moved on and improved and so should the standard of its fans. I'll take the point that winning the championship would reflect a good season but we're the second best team in the world, supposedly, grand slam or bust i'm afraid.

But we haven't won the championship recently, so by definition, winning it would be an improvement. We don't have the track record recently, or ever, to say that it isn't good enough for us.

We have won the triple crown twice in the last 5 years, so winning that wouldn't be an improvement, it would leave us in the same place.

Diamondmaker

shrapnel222 wrote:

lol, i think the fans have gotten ahead of the team!!!:D


IRB World Rankings 19/02/2007 Position
(last week) Member Union Rating points
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 94.59
2(2) FRANCE 87.17
3(3) AUSTRALIA 85.55
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.71
5(5) IRELAND 83.99
6(6) ARGENTINA 79.61
7(7) ENGLAND 79.48
8(8) SCOTLAND 76.78
9(9) WALES 75.74
10(10) SAMOA 73.86

Not that I believe the rankings mean much but, Ireland played 1 game less that counted for ranking points than all teams above us in the recent Tests. Given we bet SA and Oz and how close to them we are, we would be ahead of them if given the opportunity to have played a ranking test against someone else.
( maybe bar NZ of course, but if we had them at home back then ya never know );)

Chucky the tree

GreenHell wrote:

The Grand Slam is the only prize that matters to me in the 6n and has been for the last few years. Triple crown doesn't mean jack anymore. If the attidute in the team is to view a season as successful if they win the triple crown then I'm afraid our international team is a joke.

Did you not see them celebrating it last year? We even had a dvd ffs. A complete joke.

Thats why Ireland arent reaching their potential i think. Its ingrained in the team that 2nd best is acceptable. The only thing for us to win this years 6ns tournament was the GS, we bottled it though. So no matter what happens now, even a championship, this year's 6n has been a disappointing failure.

Steffano2002

Chucky the tree wrote:

Did you not see them celebrating it last year? We even had a dvd ffs. A complete joke.

Thats why Ireland arent reaching their potential i think. Its ingrained in the team that 2nd best is acceptable. The only thing for us to win this years 6ns tournament was the GS, we bottled it though. So no matter what happens now, even a championship, this year's 6n has been a disappointing failure.

IMO, this is the attitude to have about rugby. That's the way we think in France.

Yeah we're happy enough when we win the 6N but it's considered a small failure if we don't do the GS.

Same for the World Cup in September! We're hosting it and we simply have to win it, no other acceptable option. You might think: "How can you expect to win everything like that? You can't always win" and in a way you would be right. But why take part in a competition if not to win it?

Chucky the tree

Its what made Martin Johnson such a good captain. He(and england) were never happy with winning the championship. It was the GS or else the season wasnt a succes. I dont know why the Irish lads dont think the same.

Steffano2002

Chucky the tree wrote:

I dont know why the Irish lads dont think the same.

In fairness, it's very "Irish" to be like that. Now I hope nobody here takes this as an attack but it's one of the first things that struck me as different about the Irish people when I moved here back in 1998.

I found Irish people to always be selling themselves short and never believing they could win this or that... That's what drives me crazy about my mother (she is Irish). Before last week's game she was saying "France will beat Ireland. We'll mess up. I'll be raging!" and it was really p!ssing me off!
I mean before the game, on paper, Ireland was the big favourite! I, myself, thought I was going to be watching France lose. Turns out she was right this time... But still! She's saying the same about England now and I really think this attitude needs to change! Ireland CAN beat teams like New-Zealand! Ireland CAN win the World Cup! Everybody needs to start believing I think...

Chucky the tree

Steffano2002 wrote:

In fairness, it's very "Irish" to be like that. Now I hope nobody here takes this as an attack but it's one of the first things that struck me as different about the Irish people when I moved here back in 1998.

I found Irish people to always be selling themselves short and never believing they could win this or that... That's what drives me crazy about my mother (she is Irish). Before last week's game she was saying "France will beat Ireland. We'll mess up. I'll be raging!" and it was really p!ssing me off!
I mean before the game, on paper, Ireland was the big favourite! I, myself, thought I was going to be watching France lose. Turns out she was right this time... But still! She's saying the same about England now and I really think this attitude needs to change! Ireland CAN beat teams like New-Zealand! Ireland CAN win the World Cup! Everybody needs to start believing I think...

Someone reffering to coming second as a sort of silver medal on this thread somes up are attitudes perfectly i think. Coming 2nd is considered something to be proud of nearly. I suppose the years of getting spanked and battling it out for the wooden spoon seem to have stunted our desire to win.

I think EOS has to take alot of the blame for this.

vorbis

there is a case of being too arrogant too! How many years has it been since we won the Championship? 10, 20? And people are saying that winning it would be a poor result for Ireland!!! Get some perspective. We have a team capable of winning the GS. Guess what, so do France!

davyjose

Diamondmaker wrote:

I think people dont realsie or appreciate how difficult a GS is.

Yeah, I think the fact that a marginally-above average Welsh side did it (in a year we perhaps should) has allowed people to get carried away with the notion tat anything less is a failure.

iwincosimcool

Were certainly not out of It. now that some of the pressures off about the grand slam and croke park thing that were clearly not great with dealing with, we can concentrate on not just winning, but putting together some decent 80 minutes performances. I have a feeling the scotland and England games will be tight, but well edge them. I dunno but I just have a hunch we will murder the Italians, who wont be able to deal with our backline on St patricks day.

Any of wales, scotland and especially england are capable of stopping an experimental French side, I reckon they will lose one game, but my money would still be on that they win the championship on points difference like last year.

shmaido

shrapnel222 wrote:

lol, i think the fans have gotten ahead of the team!!!:D


IRB World Rankings 19/02/2007 Position
(last week) Member Union Rating points
1(1) NEW ZEALAND 94.59
2(2) FRANCE 87.17
3(3) AUSTRALIA 85.55
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.71
5(5) IRELAND 83.99
6(6) ARGENTINA 79.61
7(7) ENGLAND 79.48
8(8) SCOTLAND 76.78
9(9) WALES 75.74
10(10) SAMOA 73.86

I read somewhere that if we'd actually won against france that would have bumped us up to 2nd place ironically. I dont think we were second after the autumns, 3rd at most I thought but people (us irish moslty) we're trying to use "logic" to bump us up to 2nd and it goes: since we nearly beat NZ twice and NZ had thumped france twice and we had beaten everybody else of note, we were therefore better than france because we put up a better fight than france so therefore we were better than the rest but 2nd to NZ....clutching at straws i thought but weren't we a happy little rugby nation for about three months there....blast those cheese eating surrender monkeys for popping our bubble...no offence meant of course....

Steffano2002

shmaido wrote:

blast those cheese eating surrender monkeys for popping our bubble...no offence meant of course....

None taken! I just hate you now...

iwincosimcool

We didnt do the points difference any harm today, which is what is going to matter if we are to have any chance of winning the thing. The bookies had ireland to win by 7 points and france to win by 15 points. We gained 19 points on them today! We also have the potential to blow Scotland and Italy away with this momentum.

Ultimately though, were gonna need England to do us a favour against France, which is hard to see after today. But their always tough to beat at Twickenham. It's still on, Id love an Ireland team to win something worthwhile.

PixelTrawler

The one positive thing is France are not unbeatable. We nearly bet them and wales put up the good fight.

England at home, especially after a record defeat, could rally around and beat France. Also England were well beaten but didnt actually play that bad, just Ireland outclassed them in every way. That young Strettle for instance played very well

Marshy

Joebloggs4817 wrote:

England at home, especially after a record defeat, could rally around and beat France. Also England were well beaten but didnt actually play that bad, just Ireland outclassed them in every way. That young Strettle for instance played very well

Ireland were brilliant but lets not kid ourselves, this is a very average english side. If France play like they did against us they wont have any problems against them. Although you really never know with the french, they werent very impressive against the welsh.

But if they beat england which they should, on paper, then thats that. I mean Scotland wouldnt trouble the "willow under-11's"(to quote george) the way they're going. The ineptitude of their play in the first 5 mins yesterday was extraordinary.

Saruman

That was a fantastic game i have to say.. one of the best i have seen.
While i thought we would win, i did think England would put up a better fight and keep the scores tighter.
Great game, would have loved to be there.

Sangre

I'm not sure why people are bothered by the championship. The difference between a triple crown season and a chamionship has nothing to do with the Irish team but depends on how the other results pan out. If Wales had beaten France yesterday we could have won it despite playing no differently in any other game.

So what? A championship should depend solely on your team and not the victories of others.