Sunday Navan

Goldcupfav

Know its late but got a tip for Blueberry Boy in the 2.10. Also got word for Tangible in the 3.10.

Bluetonic

Goldcupfav wrote:

Know its late but got a tip for Blueberry Boy in the 2.10.

Couldn't have had a worse race.

scojones

The formbook went out the window with that race.

ziggy

This post has been deleted.

Morgans

sjones, not having a go, but I wouldnt write off the form of that race. Young Desperado had very good form earlier in the year, and looked unlucky to fall in the DEnny's at Christmas. Connections were disappointed with his run in the Arkle, and changed tactics today (once again Ruby was booked) and won today. KJC beat everything he has beaten earlier in the year bar the improved Young Desperado. I think the winner has an each way shot in the Arkle.

scojones

Morgans wrote:

sjones, not having a go, but I wouldnt write off the form of that race. Young Desperado had very good form earlier in the year, and looked unlucky to fall in the DEnny's at Christmas. Connections were disappointed with his run in the Arkle, and changed tactics today (once again Ruby was booked) and won today. KJC beat everything he has beaten earlier in the year bar the improved Young Desperado. I think the winner has an each way shot in the Arkle.

Don't get me wrong I didn't have a bet in the race, but I thought the form at Leopardstown in January put King Johns Castle ahead of Young Desperado today.

Morgans

it did, but there were other considerations.

fade2black

There are always other considerations Morgans but punters can't know the ins and outs of every horse. Maybe something was amiss in the KJC castle, maybe the trainer knew what it was and sorted it, maybe the change of tactics worked the oracle. The fact is, all the form reader has to go on is the form book and on looking at that race is was seemingly obvious that Young Desperado was held by King John's Castle.

Morgans

That is why studying form is hard. There is a big difference between being able to read the Racing Post form and understanding horse racing. Otherwise all the favourites would win and there wouldnt be a sport at all.

The punter needs to get to know the ins and outs of as many of the horses as possible, and its one of the reason why betting in the top grade races is more reliable than sellers and low grade handicaps.

IMO, one of the first lessons that can be learned with regard form is that there are very few fluke results.

Morgans

Can I just add that I have backed Young Desperado for the Arkle at all rates on betfair and betdaq (mostly over 200/1) - this was after his Christmas run - where to me he was going very well when falling two out. I had been getting excited about hte horse before the Arkle race where he was behing KJC, and was made look quite stupid, but given that connections had once again booked Ruby, and applied a change of tactics, I was hopeful that he would turn the form around.

I dont think he will win and I am far from confident about the bet but I still think he is overpriced for the Arkle, KJC ran pretty much the same race today as at Leopardstown, which would place YD at a similar level (maybe a little below) Schindlers Hunt. S Hunt would be about 8/1 - 9/1 for this race but for a clerical error. Young DEsperado is still awailable at 50/1 and possibly 66/1 if oddschecker is to be believed. 80s on betfair.

Before anyone really considers placing the bet, I recommend you watch the horse run at Leopardstown at Christmas on ATR, or his debut win at Naas before that.

If you want evidence of how the Racing Post analysis is really the analysis of one man (regardless of teh actual formbook) look at a race won by Abragante where a horse called Kelly fell two out at Taunton, and read the review in the Racing Post. See if your views match the analysis.

scojones

Morgans wrote:

Can I just add that I have backed Young Desperado for the Arkle at all rates on betfair and betdaq (mostly over 200/1) - this was after his Christmas run - where to me he was going very well when falling two out. I had been getting excited about hte horse before the Arkle race where he was behing KJC, and was made look quite stupid, but given that connections had once again booked Ruby, and applied a change of tactics, I was hopeful that he would turn the form around.

I dont think he will win and I am far from confident about the bet but I still think he is overpriced for the Arkle, KJC ran pretty much the same race today as at Leopardstown, which would place YD at a similar level (maybe a little below) Schindlers Hunt. S Hunt would be about 8/1 - 9/1 for this race but for a clerical error. Young DEsperado is still awailable at 50/1 and possibly 66/1 if oddschecker is to be believed. 80s on betfair.

Before anyone really considers placing the bet, I recommend you watch the horse run at Leopardstown at Christmas on ATR, or his debut win at Naas before that.

If you want evidence of how the Racing Post analysis is really the analysis of one man (regardless of teh actual formbook) look at a race won by Abragante where a horse called Kelly fell two out at Taunton, and read the review in the Racing Post. See if your views match the analysis.

I'm not disputing what you are saying about the Racing Post's analysis. I cannot for the life of me remember the horse's name, but the going was Heavy and all it's wins came on soft-to-heavy, yet the RP did not think heavy ground would suit. I posted this on another forum last year, and it hacked up.

What I am disputing is the Leopardstown form and that is why I said the formbook went out the window. As far as I could see - based on the previous races it had ran it was held by KJC on that form, which is exactly the point I was making.

I did not study the card long enough (or have enough resources to study it properly as I only had the RP paper with me today and the RP's site is blocked in work) to anticipate an improvement which explains to me what has happened for YD to win today. Either that or KJC didn't perform to its best.

Morgans

and as i said sjones, I wasnt having a go at you. YD ran about a stone better today than his latest Leopardstown, but only on his last leopardstown was it a shock.

But the crucial thing was that todays YD run was (to my mind at least) inkeeping with the performance that he was putting up at Leopardstown at Christmas. (i actually think that he might be capable of better still) He was below form last time out against KJC, for some reasons, part was that they needed to ensure his confidence hadnt been effected by the fall, and was asked to make up ground from the back of the field in heavy ground. They changed tactics today, something that was declared before the race began.

KJC ran to his form again - he is a 3m in the making and the form to my mind is strong.

HiCloy

Morgans wrote:

I dont think he will win and I am far from confident about the bet but I still think he is overpriced for the Arkle, KJC ran pretty much the same race today as at Leopardstown, which would place YD at a similar level (maybe a little below) Schindlers Hunt. S Hunt would be about 8/1 - 9/1 for this race but for a clerical error. Young DEsperado is still awailable at 50/1 and possibly 66/1 if oddschecker is to be believed. 80s on betfair.

He's said to be going for the Jewson Novices Hcap Chase (quote from traiber on channel4 teletext), although if the handicapper hits him hard he could still go for the Arkle

Morgans

HiCloy wrote:

He's said to be going for the Jewson Novices Hcap Chase (quote from traiber on channel4 teletext), although if the handicapper hits him hard he could still go for the Arkle

Nuts to that.

knighted

nuts to nothing morgans -ample scope for u to lay off and still have a free bet at big odds -i love those type of bets and fair play to u for following the horse and sticking to ur convictions -a good spot

thread has made good reading