3rd barrel?

phantom_lord

Shadow of a Doubt 10474601-344204 Holdem No Limit $0.50/$1
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : Hand Start.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : Seat 1 : _swacker_ has $54.64
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : Seat 3 : icedeath has $115.50
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : Seat 4 : phantom_lord has $223.25
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : Seat 5 : peng56322 has $102
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : Seat 6 : gutshot88 has $157.75
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : peng56322 is the dealer.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:43] : gutshot88 posted small blind.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:44] : _swacker_ posted big blind.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:44] : Game [344204] started with 5 players.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:44] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:44] : Seat 4 : phantom_lord has 6s 7d
[Feb 12 05:15 am:18] : icedeath folded.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:28] : phantom_lord called $1 and raised $3
[Feb 12 05:15 am:30] : peng56322 called $4
[Feb 12 05:15 am:32] : gutshot88 called $3.50
[Feb 12 05:15 am:32] : _swacker_ folded.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:33] : Dealing flop.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:33] : Board cards [8c 5c Jd]
[Feb 12 05:15 am:35] : gutshot88 checked.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:40] : phantom_lord bet $8
[Feb 12 05:15 am:42] : peng56322 called $8
[Feb 12 05:15 am:44] : gutshot88 folded.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:44] : Dealing turn.
[Feb 12 05:15 am:44] : Board cards [8c 5c Jd 2s]
[Feb 12 05:16 am:20] : phantom_lord bet $20
[Feb 12 05:16 am:34] : peng56322 has 10 seconds to respond.
[Feb 12 05:16 am:37] : peng56322 called $20
[Feb 12 05:16 am:37] : Dealing river.
[Feb 12 05:16 am:37] : Board cards [8c 5c Jd 2s Ks]


villain is 45/15/.6 (and I'm trying to bluff him :rolleyes: ), anyone like another barrel? Could have a fd? He took a a long time to call on the turn, weak?

should I have bet 25 on the turn? If I'm going to bet again how much should it be?

pok3rplaya

Check the turn because if he has a hand like JJ then the EV of checking behind, hitting a straight and stacking him is greater then the immediate equity of bluffing out his marginal hands.

Gholimoli

pok3rplaya wrote:

Check the turn because if he has a hand like JJ then the EV of checking behind, hitting a straight and stacking him is greater then the immediate equity of bluffing out his marginal hands.

if he checks behind on the turn the pot will be around $30 i think,villain has about $100 behind,so you think if we make our str then we can move $100 in to $30 pot and get called?i assume this is what you mean by saying the EV of stacking him is greater if the str comes in?

pok3rplaya

no. When he leads for $25 after missing his c/r on the turn, then we can move out miney in and get called.

ianmc38

I'd probably bet 1/2-2/3rd pot, but I have a bad habit of three barreling calling stations.

Gholimoli

pok3rplaya wrote:

no. When he leads for $25 after missing his c/r on the turn, then we can move out miney in and get called.

oh jesus i actually didnt fully read your first post in context of the board!
so you are advocating to check behind here for all thoes time that villain has a set,has checked to you on the turn ,your str comes in and then you stack him?
how often do you think the above will happen ?
im not against checking behind on the turn here but its certainly not for the reason you mention at all .
infact i think if there is as little as 25% of our turn bet taking the pot then it will have a higher EV of what you are suggesting.
our draw comes in only about 16% of the time on the river.
how often with in that 16% do you think villain has checked a set to us and is now going to get stacked in which case we win an extra $100?

BigCityBanker

fire another barrell.

redzerdrog

yeh id have to fire again I couldn't let myself just give up on that pot so firing again is the only option for me

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

pok3rplaya

Gholimoli wrote:

oh jesus i actually didnt fully read your first post in context of the board!
so you are advocating to check behind here for all thoes time that villain has a set,has checked to you on the turn ,your str comes in and then you stack him?
how often do you think the above will happen ?
im not against checking behind on the turn here but its certainly not for the reason you mention at all .
infact i think if there is as little as 25% of our turn bet taking the pot then it will have a higher EV of what you are suggesting.
our draw comes in only about 16% of the time on the river.
how often with in that 16% do you think villain has checked a set to us and is now going to get stacked in which case we win an extra $100?

Yes you are right, this precise series of events wont happen often. You need to think in terms of out opponents total range when he calls our flop bet. For me to spell it out would mean a big post and EV calculation. Betting this turn is really really bad. Think about it.

Gholimoli

pok3rplaya wrote:

Yes you are right, this precise series of events wont happen often. You need to think in terms of out opponents total range when he calls our flop bet. For me to spell it out would mean a big post and EV calculation. Betting this turn is really really bad. Think about it.

actually yes a alot of players would simply call on the flop, call on the turn with a flopped set when there is a str/flush possible .
we must be playing different games.

BigCityBanker

pok3rplaya wrote:

For me to spell it out would mean a big post and EV calculation.

go for it.

robinlacey

i think in general trying to bluff someone with those stats is lunacy
at these stakes too i'd imagine if someone is calling two bets they'll call the third

AKQJ10

You could try but he's going to call. From playing at 50/1 've finally accepted that the most proftable style of play at this level no matter how boring it may seem is sitting and waiting for big hands. i also find that alot of the time if someone takes a while and then calls it means they are strong and often they were just thinking whether to raise.

eggie

bluffing this type of player is -ev.

fuzzbox

bet something like 20-35, you are not trying to burn him off top pair (or 2nd pair even, but just a busted flush draw that would be good at a showdown.

phantom_lord

I bet 35, he pretty much insta-called with j9s