Betting on poker?

rag2gar

Anybody dabble in this with any degree of success?

I have had two succesful bets on poker in the last two weeks from the William Hil GP II heats on sky. Stan james ran a book on the heats with a 107% over-round which was a nice touch. There was great value to be had outside the "faces" such as Johnny Lodden this week and Sehlstedt the previous week.

Perhaps the sit-and-go format of the heats left more of a real possibility...

Anybody have a bet on any of the heats?

sikes

i won about a grand last year on the wsop, made about 15 bets on good pros making it to the ft of the me on betfair, one was allen cunningham, think he was 200/1 but i cant remember

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

sikes

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Sikes, I presume you put a fiver on each of your 15 picks? Nice one to get paid. But out of a 8700 man tournament your odds are never good.

i think it was a fiver alright. cant really remember, but it was for a laugh not for the odds, which where the best on offer.

i was getting about 10/1 that one of the best 15 players would make the ft of 10. i think its a great bet imo.

Mellor

sikes wrote:

i think it was a fiver alright. cant really remember, but it was for a laugh not for the odds, which where the best on offer.

i was getting about 10/1 that one of the best 15 players would make the ft of 10. i think its a great bet imo.

not in a field of 8000.


I often has a look at the odds on offer, but for the likes of the WSOP the odds are a joke, Ivey is 18-1 for next years FT.
I wonder what odds a bookie would give that NONE of the players they list will make the FT. might be worth a look,

carrigeen

Mellor wrote:

not in a field of 8000.


I often has a look at the odds on offer, but for the likes of the WSOP the odds are a joke, Ivey is 18-1 for next years FT.
I wonder what odds a bookie would give that NONE of the players they list will make the FT. might be worth a look,

The only positive is there will be nowhere near a field of 8000 next year probably more like 3000, but ur right still bad value

Mellor

carrigeen wrote:

The only positive is there will be nowhere near a field of 8000 next year probably more like 3000, but ur right still bad value

what makes you say that?
Care to stake a wager?

Main Event Number of Entrants
Under 2000 18 - 1
2000-2499 22 - 1
2500-2999 14 - 1
3000-3499 7 - 1
3500-3999 3 - 1
4000-4499 7 - 2
4500-4999 11 - 2
5000-5499 15 - 2
5500-5999 14 - 1
6000-6499 18 - 1
6500-6999 22 - 1
7000-7499 25 - 1
7500-7999 33 - 1
8000-8499 40 - 1
8500-8999 50 - 1
9000+ 7 - 1

sikes

Mellor wrote:

not in a field of 8000.

put it this way, i think one of my 15 players have at least 4.3x greater chance of making the ft than one of 15 random players picked from the field.

average player to make final table = 800/1
15 random players, and at least one to make the ft = 0.01875

so if i am getting 10/1 on the top 15 and i assume they have a 4.3x edge, then its roughly breakeven.