Bubble hand in live MTT

DocO · 10-02-2007 2:48pm #1

This hand has been bugging me now for over a month and i would like to get opinions on it please.

Its the last 17 of the 750 tournie in the citywest - 16 paid. !k next two positions and a steady rise from here.

Our table is still playing aggresive as no1 there seems to care about limping into the money. The nad in particular im on the BB of 6k with 34k behind me (ave stack about 50k) with running antes taking down the blinds and antes u got about 11k. its folded around to the SB who is Fintan Gavin, He Pushes all in for an amount greater than mine, prob bout 15k more than me.

i now look down at KQ suited - whats my action???

(personal info on Fintan from the table, its obvious he donesnt care about limping into the money(he said no to a chop paying 17 and 18), and so his holding could be anything)

Is this an automatice fold?

Do i play the player and his over raise and take a race (were i may be face rags, a small pair or ace rag)?

opinions plz

sikes · 10-02-2007 2:54pm

he should be pushing any two, esp if you have been tight.

so a call is ok, it would give you a great chance of going very deep.

DocO · 10-02-2007 2:59pm

this is the first time in last half hour r so it actually got as far as only the blinds uncontested - which gave me a harder decision . Yes i had been playin reasonably tight (or creating that image) but there was no major aggressors at the table, everybody seemd to be "having their go" when the situation arose.

The C Kid · 10-02-2007 3:05pm

Ship them in.

bottom feeder · 10-02-2007 3:10pm

doco for me its a fold your after gettin this far so why risk your tournie life for a race, i know you are playin the player but Fintan is liable to have anything like a middle pair or even a bad A - A 10 A J .... i'd say fold and wait for a better position ???

DocO · 10-02-2007 3:17pm

these r the two diffferent trains of thought i have regarding the hand . . . whats d mathematical opinion?

The C Kid · 10-02-2007 3:21pm

Fintan is pushing a huge range of hands there, possibly up to 100%.

Even if he pushing as tight as top 20% there, its still a call given you are 51/49 against top 20%.

sikes · 10-02-2007 3:40pm

DocO wrote:

these r the two diffferent trains of thought i have regarding the hand . . . whats d mathematical opinion?

if you have the payout structure, and an idea of blindlevels, you could work a rough ev.

do you think he is doing this with any two?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.400% 62.41% 00.99% 5236247160 83230284.00 { KQs }
Hand 1: 36.600% 35.61% 00.99% 2987581872 83230284.00 { random }

bottom feeder · 10-02-2007 3:41pm

Doco not good at the oul maths, KQ against most middle pairs 55 66 77 is 49% - 51%
and against a rag ace A9 - A10, KQ drops to about 45% and pretty much still a race..... and if you were to win the race it would put you in pole position but i hate that bubble....lol

The C Kid · 10-02-2007 3:43pm

Given that the OP is considering a KQ fold in this spot, I think its very unlikely we are racing against Fintans range in this spot.

We are racing at worst, 60/40 most likely, and crushing alot too.

Hitman Actual · 10-02-2007 3:54pm

Are there any stacks likely to go out on the next orbit? You say people are playing aggressively, so if there were a couple of mega-shorties there, I might give it up. Other than that, I think the $EV for calling is higher than the $EV for folding (off the top of my head), so I think it's a call.

BigCityBanker · 10-02-2007 3:58pm

you crush his range - this is a no brainer.

DocO · 10-02-2007 4:00pm

no major shorties, if i let d blinds go past me its prob me the shorty, slightly, but only one steal and ur on ave again

bottom feeder · 10-02-2007 4:03pm

wow its no wonder i cant even score in a brothel...... [i'd still fold

]

Hitman Actual · 10-02-2007 4:20pm

BigCityBanker wrote:

you crush his range - this is a no brainer.

I disagree that it's a no-brainer. Getting knocked out on the bubble is the ultimate disaster in terms of $EV, whereas somebody else getting knocked out without you having to get involved is generally +$EV. A 60/40 would be pretty close in these terms, I think, but I still reckon it's a call.

LuckyLloyd · 10-02-2007 4:28pm

This post has been deleted.

DocO · 10-02-2007 5:01pm

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Worrying about sneaking into the first paying position is bad IMO. This is a call. You beat his range (by a wide margin). Win the hand and you are back in contention for a serious run at the top five positions.

Ship it FTW.

Worryin about limping into the money was never an issue for a number of reasons the main one being i had given away 2 10% to two donkeys who were out hours, and so the next pay position was 1k, meaning i make 50 euro profit for my 7 hours r so . . .

. . . The main Q is, with stack sizes and blinds, do i have to put my chips in the middle knowing that there is a fair chance im behind (even if only o A rag) and small chance i dominate him, or do i wait until i see a betr opporunity - all tournment i didnt pput my life at risk, unless i thought i was ahead . . . should this change here with the value im getting and circumstances explained, even though im in bubble period and may find a betr chance ? ? ?

LuckyLloyd · 10-02-2007 5:32pm

This post has been deleted.

RoundTower · 10-02-2007 5:36pm

KQ is actually a very dominating hand, Kx and Qx are very likely hands for him but there aren't very many combinations of AQ+ to dominate you. I call instantly.

You shouldn't think "oh I only get 50 profit for limping into the money here" though, it is 800 profit because at the moment you are stuck 700, and 800 euro is 800 euro whether you're in a €1 tourney or a €10k one. The reason the 800 should be relatively unimportant is because the first prize should be a whole lot bigger, not because it represents only 50 profit.

phantom_lord · 10-02-2007 6:56pm

call.

rag2gar · 10-02-2007 7:24pm

My money says he has Ax

DocO · 10-02-2007 7:47pm

RoundTower wrote:

KQ is actually a very dominating hand, Kx and Qx are very likely hands for him but there aren't very many combinations of AQ+ to dominate you. I call instantly.

You shouldn't think "oh I only get 50 profit for limping into the money here" though, it is 800 profit because at the moment you are stuck 700, and 800 euro is 800 euro whether you're in a €1 tourney or a €10k one. The reason the 800 should be relatively unimportant is because the first prize should be a whole lot bigger, not because it represents only 50 profit.

Yes i understand the reasoning here the 800 i make is better than leavin with nothing, but yes i was looking at the bigger picture and thought perhaps i would get a better opportunity.

It turns out i folded this hand, it ate away at me for ages. Flipper was on my table and he told me he waould fold here (whether it was merely for table image, or to make me feel betr im not sure) and i was also talking to sum1 who cashed in the WSOP last yr about this, and when i asked him what would he do, he laughed how it was an automatic fold, what was i thinking about... but although hearing this from two players i respect i agree with the conscencus that i should have called, as he was probably playing the opportunity presented to him, by the unlikely situation that there was no raise before us . . .

What ended up happening was i folded small and big, and on the button a guy open raised for 15k, folded to me on button, i push with 32k with QQ only to be re-rasied by the blinds with AK, Aj (orig raiser) folds, and an ace hits - so i bubbled anyways.

~But thanks for all the replies, i was pretty sure i made the wrong decision as soon as i folded, and it seems that most people back this up.

Cheers for the comments , and anyone who hasnt done so already please feel free to.

Edit: considering how i played it, was it terrible play, bad play or a marginal call???

PS jus kiddin Lloyd, u aint a donkey! (Gota b nice to the captain)

Bubble hand in live MTT

Comments