HoW to do quick calculations

AmarilloFats

Relative stacks $200.
Blinds 1/2
An average TAG raises UTG+1 to 8.
I make it 25 with AsKs.
He calls POT = 50

Flop is 7 2 3s (one of your suit)
He checks, You bet 40, he calls. POT = 130
u both have 135 left.

Turn pairs the board 2s, and gives you a flush draw.
He checks, you put him on TT JJ QQ. (lets say he def has one of these and does not have one of your suit!!)

How often do you need him to fold for a push to be +EV?

Thanks.

phantom_lord

I doubt he's folding...

eggie

Of the top of my head, about 30% would make it marginal.

edit: rethink, a lot less actually - 10% prob be enough

Mellor

Including the blinds the pot is a bit more, lets say 133
There are three outcomes for you here, he folds, he calls and wins. he calls and loses.


So if you go all-in and he calls. You are drawing to 8 hearts and the 6 aces and kings. So thats 14 outs. (it doesn't matter if he has one of your suit of not)
You will catch a winning river about 32% of the time. (14/44)



Outcome

---

*%

---

$

---

EV
Push & Lose----68%

---

$-135----(-91.8)
Push & Win

---

32%

---

$+268----(+85.76)

So when you are called you have an EV of (-6.04)
You need to reclaim this when he folds to make it +ev

villain folds

---

(X)%

---

$+133----(+6.04)
Solve for X
(X).133=6.04
x=6.04/133
x=0.05

So if he folds 5% of the time, you break even. Actually it would be +ev because I rounded the answer up.
This should be right, if anyone seees a mistake please point it out.

AmarilloFats

phantom_lord wrote:

I doubt he's folding...

thanks for that, LOL.,,.. the question was how do do quick on the spot calcs.

He will fold sometimes...I reckon (this guy) he folds about 30-40%

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ronanp

As a very rough quick estimate, multiply your outs by 2 on the river or 4 on the turn to give the percentage of time you hit.

e.g in this case you have 14 outs, 14 x 2 =28, so yer not far off 28% to hit your hand.

AmarilloFats

LuckyLloyd wrote:

If he folds 30 - 40% of the time a push should be more than profitable.

Umm hmm. But when the hand went down I realised I didn't have a clue as to how to calculate it quickly..

Thanks..

So, what do you think of the Push on the turn!!???

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

AmarilloFats

LuckyLloyd wrote:

When you have 14 outs with one card coming you are approxamitely 32% to win the hand. This is the instant calculation part - good to get these types of numbers down cold I suppose. As such, if you think that he will fold 88 - QQ one out of every five times, or 20% - the push becomes a very marginal plus EV move. Increase the regularity with which he folds to 30% or more and the push becomes a profitable move.

As such, you need to know the player - but if you are sure of this range and fold percentage I like the move. If you also play against him or other players at the table frequently I like it even more - as a push on the turn with AKs here will be noted by your opponents and increase the chances of you being paid off with a made hand in future similiar spots.

Thanks Lloyd. When the hand went down I said ok "~14 outs ~ 30%, I think he will fold 30% the time, I think this is enough, how do I calc it".
OTher than Mellor no one has shown a quick way. Cheers Mellor.

And Lloyd just sent me PM, Cheers Llyod