Busto Hand from the NSPC

MickL

Blinds 800 - 1500 Ante 150 im on the button with AhQH everyone folds i make it 6K SB thinks a bit and calls BB Folds flop comes 2H 3H 5D SB Checks i Bet 15k BB thinks for 10 mins and pushs he has about 50k im on about 40 k he has made similiar push in d past few orbits with J high Flushdraws
Q, should i make this call for my tournament at this stage with 70 left and and losing players very quickly???

sikes

pretty easy call.

hit him for taking 10mins too

phantom_lord

yeah call

MickL

sikes wrote:

pretty easy call.

hit him for taking 10mins too

i insta called i was pretty sure while he was making his decision that he was gonna push so if he did i was calling regardless he had K9 off and hit the K.. but i was thinkin on d way home should i off got myself so commited with A high

beamo

was this the lad sitting to your left mick? absolute ringer for jigsaw out of the saw films?

MickL

beamo wrote:

was this the lad sitting to your left mick? absolute ringer for jigsaw out of the saw films?

yea he was to my direct left never seen the saw films exactly he was waering a het and had long blonde looking hair???

sikes

MickL wrote:

i insta called i was pretty sure while he was making his decision that he was gonna push so if he did i was calling regardless he had K9 off and hit the K.. but i was thinkin on d way home should i off got myself so commited with A high

The worst case is that he has A4, if we put him on a range that doesnt include 64.. Then you are drawing to 3 4's, 9 hearts so 12/11 outs twice. (although if he has a set we are worse off becase he can redraw to a house.)

you ended up in the best case in that he was drawing to maximum of 5, and if he didnt have a heart, 4.

you shouldnt think in terms of what your hand is atm. you should be thinking in terms of the chance of winning the hand and the price being offered, which in this case is 2/1.

this is something that amazed me about the question RoundTower asked people in the well. Many people said they wouldnt go all in on a draw early in a tournament, which is not the right way to think about it. We should only consider our euqity in the pot against the price being offered, at any time in a tournament, regardless if we have a made hand or not. Obvioulsy other factors may come into play, but the decision should be the same whether we are on a draw or a made hand.

Ill just add this in at the end.

Worst Case

Board: 2h 3h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.182% 67.27% 00.91% 666 9.00 { 5h5s }
Hand 1: 31.818% 30.91% 00.91% 306 9.00 { AhQh }

Next Worst

Board: 2h 3h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.152% 56.67% 03.48% 561 34.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 39.848% 36.36% 03.48% 360 34.50 { AhQh }

Best Case

Board: 2h 3h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.414% 10.51% 00.91% 104 9.00 { Ks9c }
Hand 1: 88.586% 87.68% 00.91% 868 9.00 { AhQh }

sorry to show you that you lost to a 9/1 shot

MickL

sikes wrote:

The worst case is that he has A4, if we put him on a range that doesnt include 64.. Then you are drawing to 3 4's, 9 hearts so 12/11 outs twice. (although if he has a set we are worse off becase he can redraw to a house.)

you ended up in the best case in that he was drawing to maximum of 5, and if he didnt have a heart, 4.

you shouldnt think in terms of what your hand is atm. you should be thinking in terms of the chance of winning the hand and the price being offered, which in this case is 2/1.

this is something that amazed me about the question RoundTower asked people in the well. Many people said they wouldnt go all in on a draw early in a tournament, which is not the right way to think about it. We should only consider our euqity in the pot against the price being offered, at any time in a tournament, regardless if we have a made hand or not. Obvioulsy other factors may come into play, but the decision should be the same whether we are on a draw or a made hand.

Ill just add this in at the end.

Worst Case

Board: 2h 3h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.182% 67.27% 00.91% 666 9.00 { 5h5s }
Hand 1: 31.818% 30.91% 00.91% 306 9.00 { AhQh }

Next Worst

Board: 2h 3h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.152% 56.67% 03.48% 561 34.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 39.848% 36.36% 03.48% 360 34.50 { AhQh }

Best Case

Board: 2h 3h 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.414% 10.51% 00.91% 104 9.00 { Ks9c }
Hand 1: 88.586% 87.68% 00.91% 868 9.00 { AhQh }

sorry to show you that you lost to a 9/1 shot

with the range i had him on i put him on over cards with the flush draw with his long delay the possibilty of a rag ace pairing up the with board or a straight crossed my mind but then the long delay made me rule that out of the way completly,, so i came to the conclusion that he push with overcards and the flush draw which he had done a few orbits prevously,,


a 9/1 shot Ouch never bothered checkin the odds of it but thanks LOL

Mick

cardshark202

You played it fine as you probably know Mick. Tough luck.

myflipflops

i had just arrived at the table when this hand happened. on first viewing, i didnt know how all the chips got into the middle. an hour later i realised you were correct to call, he was making very big calls and very dodgy plays in incredibly marginal situations (later he called a huge all in re-raise with AJ off against a tight player). it was just a sicko kind of beat. i also have to say that your reaction was first class. there was a lot of ridiculous celebrations and abuse goin about in this tournament. you stood up, said nice hand and left. why everyone cant do this i don't know. well played.

AKQJ10

This was the best call i saw all day. I was sitting in between you and luke when this happened. I dunno if it was before you arrived or after he called my all-in with a queen high flushdraw for all his chips when he had roughly 3/4 times avg. stack. That was a huge pot and left me with a shortish stack of 11BB. Then ran into Aces when when id AQ and that was it.

myflipflops

AKQJ10 wrote:

Then ran into Aces when when id AQ and that was it.

this was me, you couldnt fold.

DeadParrot

beamo wrote:

was this the lad sitting to your left mick? absolute ringer for jigsaw out of the saw films?

brilliant

MickL

pwhite587 wrote:

i had just arrived at the table when this hand happened. on first viewing, i didnt know how all the chips got into the middle. an hour later i realised you were correct to call, he was making very big calls and very dodgy plays in incredibly marginal situations (later he called a huge all in re-raise with AJ off against a tight player). it was just a sicko kind of beat. i also have to say that your reaction was first class. there was a lot of ridiculous celebrations and abuse goin about in this tournament. you stood up, said nice hand and left. why everyone cant do this i don't know. well played.

cheers
i belive its best to show manners regardless of the situation and maybe everyone should try to be the same make the great game we all love a lot more enjoyable

Goodluck2me

MickL wrote:

cheers
i belive its best to show manners regardless of the situation and maybe everyone should try to be the same make the great game we all love a lot more enjoyable

cant agree with this more. it will always stand to you.

edit: is that bebo page still open in your sig it wont open.

MickL

try that one http://www.bebo.com/grp/Grp.jsp?GrpTypeCd=BD&GrpId=3393490907