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make or break tourny?

  • 28-01-2007 9:18am
    #1
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭


    Student tourny yesterday, blinds are .5/1k 200 100 ante avg 20kish



    First hand in the bb is missing as is two of the other players, I raisey daisy q4o get one caller and fire a single barrel to take it down.

    I've got 30k now.



    I get 99 utg+1 make it 3.5k


    rocky player shoves for 21k more (?)

    He's only shown down aa/qq/ak hands all day. but hasn't played them like this. usually flat calls a raise.

    Lets just assume we think he has ak.



    Should we call this? If I win I'm cl on the table and prob in the first 10 overall, I call bully the table and stand a chance of taking it down.

    If I lose I'm pretty much crippled, but a double up or two and I'll be good.

    If I fold I think I can accumulate chips as the table's fairly soft, although it is the next table to be broken.



    Is it correct to gamboool on a coin flip mid tourny in order to build a stack?


Comments

  • #2
    fobster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 947 ✭✭✭fobster


    Tough decision, if you win it puts you in a very comfortable position and will let you accumulate even more chips and if you lose it's push/fold poker, if you firmly believe he has ak and not an over pair I'd take the race, the ability to bully a table at this stage of the tourney is far too valuable an opportunity to miss.


  • #3
    Hitman Actual
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    Why would you just assume he has AK? I think this is a fold, and I don't think it's even very close. But *if* you knew for definate he had AK, then yeah, call, unless you're a tourney survivalist.


  • #4
    phantom_lord
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,894 ✭✭✭✭phantom_lord


    lenny_leonard wrote:
    Why would you just assume he has AK? I think this is a fold, and I don't think it's even very close. But *if* you knew for definate he had AK, then yeah, call, unless you're a tourney survivalist.

    I don't really play tournies, and I wanna find out if other people think it's correct to gamble here if it's ak.



    At the time I thought it was most likely ak, but wasn't very sure as he'd been so tight, but I just thought he wouldn't over bet the pot so much with a premium hand, he hadn't done so up to this point, his bet did kinda seem like "I'm got ak and dunno how to play it" though.


  • #5
    Hitman Actual
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭Hitman Actual


    phantom_lord wrote:
    I don't really play tournies, and I wanna find out if other people think it's correct to gamble here if it's ak.



    At the time I thought it was most likely ak, but wasn't very sure as he'd been so tight, but I just thought he wouldn't over bet the pot so much with a premium hand, he hadn't done so up to this point, his bet did kinda seem like "I'm got ak and dunno how to play it" though.

    Fair enough, if that's the case then go with your instinct so. Just looking at the numbers you need to win >41% of the time for a +CEV move, so it should definately be AK often enough for a call to be good, going by your read of the situation. Occasionally he'll show up with TT/JJ/QQ but I think a call is good here. But if it's +CEV then I don't think it's really a gamble; it's just all to do with your take on "TLS".

    Just thinking about it, at 41% BE it's probably much closer against a normal solid opponent than I originally thought. I don't have PS on this PC, so can't check it out.


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