BlackJack Value at 5/2?

rag2gar

I certainly think so. He has been shifted from 8/11 out to 5/2 and I for one think this is an over-reaction by the bookies. He is a very classy horse perhaps one of the most valuable in NH today along with Kauto Star and I think Cheltenham in March is still a very live possibility.

With much better quality ground expected in March and his success over course and distance last year surely he is a good thing?

Opinions?

fade2black

He will win the world hurdle in march, no doubt about it in my mind.

mdwexford

i think his price is about right now, hes NEVER beaten a top class horse. anyone who took odds on quotes want locking up.

i definitely dont think hes a good thing, Inglis Drever and Mighty Man will be no pushovers.

Colonel Sanders

I posted here many times questioning the sanity of odds on quotes for a horse who while being visibly impressive hadn't actually beaten too much.

6/1 inglis drever with ladbrokes is outstanding ew value. lets not forgte this horse has beaten baracouda twice and has looked nearly as good since coming back after a year off. Saturdays run will put him spot on for march and I feel he's the one to beat.

purple'n'gold

rag2gar wrote:

I certainly think so. He has been shifted from 8/11 out to 5/2 and I for one think this is an over-reaction by the bookies. He is a very classy horse perhaps one of the most valuable in NH today along with Kauto Star and I think Cheltenham in March is still a very live possibility.

With much better quality ground expected in March and his success over course and distance last year surely he is a good thing?

Opinions?

I am very wary at backing anything anti post, certainly will not be backing him as I doubt he will run in the festival. I just did'nt like the way he was virtually pulled up Saturday.

Topcat101

purplengold wrote:

I am very wary at backing anything anti post, certainly will not be backing him as I doubt he will run in the festival. I just did'nt like the way he was virtually pulled up Saturday.

Didn't see the race.... what happened ?

rag2gar

purplengold wrote:

I am very wary at backing anything anti post, certainly will not be backing him as I doubt he will run in the festival. I just did'nt like the way he was virtually pulled up Saturday.

He was pulled up because the ground was bottomless and he didnt take to it at all. He was pulled up because McCoy knew turning in that he wasnt going to win and a horse like that you have no concerns about place money but just for having him right for the festival in March. Hes too valuable to kill to win races, mccoyt know that more than anyone, turning in he wasnt going to win, so no point killing him to do so...

fade2black

I was told that the horse has barely been out of his box in the last month or so. This was not a race they had any intention of winning.

mdwexford

fade2black wrote:

I was told that the horse has barely been out of his box in the last month or so. This was not a race they had any intention of winning.

interesting ftb, i got the impression Jonjo was obsessed with keeping his unbeaten record intact. i was surprised he ran him on ground that bad in the first place. did he succumb to pressure from the public to run the horse on saturday??

fade2black

I'm not sure about that mdwex...I am surprised the horse hasn't drifted out a little further though. It still might....I have a feeling that come world hurdle day he'll be backed into the 5/4 mark

00dyel

AT 5-2 its a massive price isnt it
Also i got 10's for Lounaos for Triumph Hurdle and after finishing 4th not far behind main Champion Hurdle contenders surely that must be a very big price.



P.s check out ebid- its like ebay but it doesnt cost to sell items, recommended to me and please tell your freinds.

00dyel

just done Kauto Star An BJK in a double!!

rag2gar

00dyel wrote:

just done Kauto Star An BJK in a double!!

I like it. Did a thread a couple of months back about an ante-post lucky 15 and Ive got em both too. Ive got kauto at 4/1. It looks big now (and ironically enough at the time I remember thinking it was pretty stingy!!)

Colonel Sanders

I still feel BJk is shocking value. As Tom Segal pointed out in the racingpost today how many horses have come back from such a shocking run to win at the festival 6 weeks later? There was nothing wrong with the way the horse travelled on saturday til push came to shove so I severly disbelieve 'the ground beat him' theory.

Ladbrokes odds compilers should be made sit in the corner and think about what they've done for calking up 5/4.

Btw I don't feel BJK will be shorter than the 2/1 mark he's currently trading at. On course bookmakers and layers on betfair dont have ante post liabilities and will be out to get this horse come 15th of march

fade2black

Tom Segal also said that Hardy Eustace was past it. I don't read his column anymore. (And I wish him the best of luck with that Asian Maze ante post docket)

mdwexford

to add to his other great ante-post docket, Our Vic for the Gold Cup

lmao

rag2gar

Colonel Sanders wrote:

I still feel BJk is shocking value. As Tom Segal pointed out in the racingpost today how many horses have come back from such a shocking run to win at the festival 6 weeks later? There was nothing wrong with the way the horse travelled on saturday til push came to shove so I severly disbelieve 'the ground beat him' theory.

Ladbrokes odds compilers should be made sit in the corner and think about what they've done for calking up 5/4.

Btw I don't feel BJK will be shorter than the 2/1 mark he's currently trading at. On course bookmakers and layers on betfair dont have ante post liabilities and will be out to get this horse come 15th of march

Take a look at his other races. He beat saturdays winner at a canter in their previous meeting and his brit insurance win last year was the most impressive performance in last years festival.

Ill put it this way if you went out to buy any of the horses on the ante-post list for the world hurdle which would be the most expensive? I would conservatively say he would be double the tag of any other. As for laddies, we all know connections of BJK are massive punters (with mainly flat-racing gambles) so I'd say they've taken enough money to fill their preverbial sponser's satchel for many a world hurdle race to come at the moment

Colonel Sanders

can I ask to be directed to your posts slating the pricewise picks BEFORE both asian maze and our vic ran last time out?

Our vic looked to be the only overpriced horse left in the gold cup betting when pricewise tipped him. We now know that the horse probably wouldn't see out the gold cup trip. Have to be honest the asian maze tip puzzled me as did nickname in the Champion chase. In any case I wasn't peaching the virtues of pricewise just saying I agreed with most of his article re. the stayers.

Probably true re. his price tag but didnt garde champtre cost JP a world record? PS beaing powerstation last march, impressively or not proves nothing. The brit insurances ws one of the weakest races of the week.

Saturday was the first time BJK was asked to run over 3 miles at racing speed against horses with pretensions to winning at the festival (Blazing Bailey will not win the stayers) and he emptied. IMO it wasnt a case of the ground as he travelled very sweetly til asked a question raising doubts about his stamina in a top class 3m race.

I guess we'll find out for definate in 6 weeks time but at this stage I would much rather be a layer than a backer.

mdwexford

i knew way before the weekends racing that Asian Maze and Our Vic were bad selections CS. i may not have said it on here but Our Vic will never be able to keep it together in the hustle and bustle, lightening fast pace and big field of a Gold Cup. hes the most unreliable/biggest hype horse ever.

i dont buy the racing speed thing about BJK, hes ran in races with a decent pace before and won. lto Blazing Bailey made it a good test and he trounced him. 33 lengths is a bit too much of a turnaround of form imo. i still havent made up my mind about him but currently Inglis Drever looks to have the most solid credentials for the World Hurdle.

Colonel Sanders

MD the relkeel was run at a v slow pace and if memory serves me correctly it was miles slower tha any other race on the card.

As i said we'll find out come march 15th but I certainly won't be backing BJK.

BangBeater

Yeah, was in Paddy Power on saturday evening having a few bets on the AW in Wolverhampton (thank you very much mighty kitchener!! ), & overheard some guy tellin another guy how he had €800 on BJK... FFS like!!

Colonel Sanders

PS always thought Our Vic was a hype horse and have filled my boots laying him before, however his run at wetherby (when I actually felt he'd no chance) convinced me maybe there was something in all the hype. I thought he'd be pricewise on the back of that run so backed it for GC, immmediately put in a lay a few points shorter and had my bet matched after the pricewise article. Think saturday's run proves once and for all he'll never go close let alone win over the GC trip.

mdwexford

the relkeel was run at a faster than the cleeve

and as far as i can see the cleeve was the slowest race on the card at Cheltenham on saturday

mdwexford

Colonel Sanders wrote:

PS always thought Our Vic was a hype horse and have filled my boots laying him before, however his run at wetherby (when I actually felt he'd no chance) convinced me maybe there was something in all the hype. I thought he'd be pricewise on the back of that run so backed it for GC, immmediately put in a lay a few points shorter and had my bet matched after the pricewise article. Think saturday's run proves once and for all he'll never go close let alone win over the GC trip.

he unquestionably has the talent, its a shame he doesnt have the heart to go with it

Tush

Taken from another site but I agree with what this person had to say.

But the worst value all day was the 2 to 1 about Our Vic in the Letheby & Christopher Chase. I’m not quite sure what it is about normally sensible judges and this horse. He isn’t very tough, he packs it in after a mistake, he isn’t truly effective beyond three miles and he once went through a season without completing the course once. How does 2 to 1 sound now?

Yes, he has a touch of class - reluctant though I may be to attribute human qualities to animals. (A regrettable habit which has been repeated often enough of late, incidentally.) But some strange things have been written, including an assessment of his win in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby as ‘imperious’.

I’m sorry, but that is nonsense. Our Vic will always do best when fresh and Timmy Murphy nursed him round a treat. They had the race won when Our Vic wandered around approaching the last and Murphy had to half coax, half fiddle him over it. He was so far clear it looked an impressive performance but you need only look back at the tape to realise how little there was in the locker. Our Vic isn’t crazy about the game and it just shows what a genius Martin Pipe was to have brought him back for the Paddy Power last year - over a much shorter trip, of course.

meriwether

Quite simply, if you believe BJK will win, then 5/2 is the bet of the century.
His run the last day was so bad, that frankly, it can be disregarded. There is abolutely no chance that he is a 33 length turnaround for the worse with blazing Bailey.
However, dont mistake my belief that BJK is much better than Saturday, as opinion he will win the World Hurdle. I think its between himself ad Inglis Drever.
Ive taken the 5/1 on Inglis Drever. I feel he is a cert to be placed, at worst he is second best in the race. I rate his chances reasonably similar to BJK's, so taking 5/1 versus 5/4 (the odds at the time) is a no brainer.

larsson7

Loads of questions being asked on BJK after that last run, and who are we to answer them. Tony McCoy, greatest jockey of all time, rates this horse as one of the best he ever rode, what more do you need. 2/1....banker.
Asian Maze is taking a bashing here with no one going into detail, everyone knows the horse needs good ground, trust me if connections taught any different the horse would not have gone off 12/1 for the AIG, they knew he wasn't going to win and wasn't trained to win. Only once this season have we seen the true Asian Maze, when he was close second to an inform Iktitaf on his first race back. Last season he was easily the most impressive winner at Aintree. When this horse is right its as good as any and current price of 25s is great value, as Ruby Walsh would tell you as he has always been very bullish about this horse.

mdwexford

larsson7 wrote:

Loads of questions being asked on BJK after that last run, and who are we to answer them. Tony McCoy, greatest jockey of all time, rates this horse as one of the best he ever rode, what more do you need. 2/1....banker.
Asian Maze is taking a bashing here with no one going into detail, everyone knows the horse needs good ground, trust me if connections taught any different the horse would not have gone off 12/1 for the AIG, they knew he wasn't going to win and wasn't trained to win. Only once this season have we seen the true Asian Maze, when he was close second to an inform Iktitaf on his first race back. Last season he was easily the most impressive winner at Aintree. When this horse is right its as good as any and current price of 25s is great value, as Ruby Walsh would tell you as he has always been very bullish about this horse.

so to sum up your saying if the jockey thinks the horse is good then its bound to win.

btw Asian Maze = SHE!!!!!

Morgans

larsson7 wrote:

Loads of questions being asked on BJK after that last run, and who are we to answer them. Tony McCoy, greatest jockey of all time, rates this horse as one of the best he ever rode, what more do you need. 2/1....banker.
Asian Maze is taking a bashing here with no one going into detail, everyone knows the horse needs good ground, trust me if connections taught any different the horse would not have gone off 12/1 for the AIG, they knew he wasn't going to win and wasn't trained to win. Only once this season have we seen the true Asian Maze, when he was close second to an inform Iktitaf on his first race back. Last season he was easily the most impressive winner at Aintree. When this horse is right its as good as any and current price of 25s is great value, as Ruby Walsh would tell you as he has always been very bullish about this horse.

Larrson7, Can you tell me the last champion hurdler not to have won a 2m hurdle of any description prior to the big day?

larsson7

Well on BJK, where the question is was the last race a one off and is this the best 3 miler around McCoy's word along with every other race it has run is good enough for me.
Statistics mean sweet fa to me, but Asian Maze has won a 2m2f by 21 and 1/2 lenghts before and Cheltenham over an extended 2 miles is more like a 2m2f race, well maybe a 2m1f but you get my point.
Also that run behind Iktitaf is as good as a win for me.
And again why I use Ruby's reference is that Ruby is very bullish that this is a champion hurdle horse and not a world hurdle horse.

Morgans

I dont think Asian Maze has any chance in the World hurdle, but I also think she wont win the Champion Hurdle. Whatever chance she had at Cheltenham went last year, as she isnt nearly in the same form this year.

Stats might mean nothing, but not having won a race over 2m is a huge obstacle to obstacle. That 2m2f race she won (her maiden) by 1/2l. Not 21 1/2l.

THe common sense approach would be to skip the champion and concentrate on being fresh and well for Aintree.

Given that the ground will be good to soft at best on the first day of the festival this year, I wouldnt hold much hope for the ground being much better than it was at Leopardstown.