Saturday

gamb1or

That 2.45 at Cheltenham is some race, all the horses i fancy tomorrow are in that race

Cailin Alainn stands out the most to me, as it carries a good bit less than the 4 top weights who are it's biggest dangers, loves heavy ground too.

It's beaten celestial wave, patsy hall, schlindler's hunt too.

Not to mention it's unbeaten in it's last 6 races.

Neptune Collonges looks good but our vic has destroyed it when their differnces have been much wider than they will we tomorrow many times before.

Love Exotic Dancer but distance could be a problem, only ran this distance once before and was nowhere, also never ran on heavy ground.

Halcon Genereldais' form looks great, never ran on the ground though.

Cailinn Alain can beat Our Vic carryig 11 lbs less though.

Healio

Thinking of taking on BJK tomorrow, Am i mad ???

knighted

rather u than me lol-but i think i read on teletext than mccoy was worried about the ground? so 2moro might be right to takehim on if u feel the urge

i am a big fan of inglis drever -wheather he still has the ability to compete at this level we will know this time tomorrow first and second in two world hurdles lost a shoe when second and then beat the great baracouda but bjk looks a different kettle of fish -going to back him to place but i would be more confident if gramham lee was still on board -nothing against paddy brennen
interestingly the horse that beat inglis in the world hurdle fundamentalist runs in the following race -not taken to fences well but i think at 66/1 forcast price i will have a nibble e/w-second last time he ran at cheltenham in a grade two 120 available on betfair to a tenner and tens to place -

best bet of the day might come with mccoy on mountain (ironically i just slagged him off? on another thread )

seand333

wolverhampton 17.20, financial times should finally pick up a win after afew seconds
lingfield 15.30, fusili

Healio

Inglis Drever is the one i fancy myself, which is why i fancy BJK to be overturned. Although you could look at it and say why would they bother putting him out if they don't fancy him. The fact there are proven heavy ground winners in the field has me thinking this could be the one and only time to get him beat, there is no doubting he is something else.

On the rest of the card, I see my first ever notebook entry, Halcon Generladais is out, the ground will no doubt make it a stamina test which could play into HG's hands, but as gamb1or has said above every horse you'd fancy/keep an eye on is in it. Exotic Dancer, Our Vic and even Calinn Alainn.
I like to stay loyal to my notebook, but i won't let that stand in the way of Calinn Alainn's form, just reading the form of her last 6 wins, she's had the likes of celestial wave, gazza's girl, chicago vic, Schindler's Hunt and even recent Cheltenham winner Patsy Hall. Exotic Dancer keeps pulling something extra out with every race, after winning the paddy power gold cup and then the boylesport gold cup, his rating soared, but then he came out and ran a good second to Kauto Star. Very Tough race but i will end up backing Calinn Alainn or Halcon Generladais or Exotic Dancer!!!

BobbyD10

seand333 wrote:

wolverhampton 17.20, financial times should finally pick up a win after afew seconds
lingfield 15.30, fusili

I'll go for Very Wise to beat Fusli this time around

mdwexford

knighted wrote:

i am a big fan of inglis drever -wheather he still has the ability to compete at this level we will know this time tomorrow first and second in two world hurdles lost a shoe when second and then beat the great baracouda

Inglis Drever ran in one World Hurdle which he won.

I presume you are referring to the Sunalliance Hurdle the year before which he came 2nd to Fundamentalist in.


Im very surprised by all the support for Cailin Alainn on here, its a bit of a step up from a few Irish nov chases, i dont give her a prayer tomorrow. Ill wait and see how bad the ground is in the first few races, if its near unraceable then Halcon Genelardais will hack up, if not Our Vic.

goodfela

Have to agree with mdwexford - can't see cailin alainn winning in this company. Does get a bit of weight but if you took her out you would still find it hard to pick a winner between the rest as they're mostly good, proven horses.

I think Our Vic is a good favourite but i won't be backing him at 2/1...

masterK

I can see where you boys are coming from thinking of taking Black Jack Ketchum on, despite all his wins he still hasn't beaten a whole lot, his novice form hasn't really been franked this season. We won't really know how good he is until today, which is why it's a race to watch and not bet on IMO.

Elsewhere everything looks ideal for Our Vic today, he has his ideal ground on a course he likes and has also had a nice break to freshen him up, 2/1 is a bit short alright, with some of the oppostion today I wouldn't be surprised to see him go off closer to 11/4.

Another Pipe horse which should run a big race today is Vodka Bleu at 3:55, back over an ideal distance after not staying in the Hennessey, his second in the Paddy Power to Exotic Dancer over this CD in his first race for some time gives him every chance today.

I couldn't resist a small bet last night on Ashley Brook at 8.2/1, I know he probably won't be pushed too hard today but he won't need to be, he races off a mark a massive 34 lb below his chase mark, if even 80% wound up he should win this. The concern of course is that he'll be given a nice easy ride and not put into contention. A close eye on the betting should be kept, any support will be worth noting.

Over at Southwell at 1:15 I fancy Echo Point to turn the tables on Tidal Fury with an 8lb weight swing for a 17 length defeat in his first race in a year at Carlisle in November, he won next time out by 22 lenghts.

In the 1:50 at a decent price I'm taking a chance on Almaydan, he's won his only course and distance attempt. His record on good to soft or softer over 2 miles is 2 wins, 2 places from 5 attempts. On form lines through Kalca Mome and Tanikos he looks to have the beating of Madison Du Berlais, although on his day the latter will take a lot of beating. It'll be tough for Mister Pickle to defy a 21lb weight hike for his last 2 victories.

fade2black

I think that's the first time you've ever gone with Our Vic MasterK...what's wrong???? Should I be worried?

masterK

fade2black wrote:

I think that's the first time you've ever gone with Our Vic MasterK...what's wrong???? Should I be worried?

I've backed him twice before, wouldn't dream of backing him unless the ground was testing and he'd had a break between races.

scojones

Dutching with Our Vic and Exotic Dancer in the 2.45.

Agree with masterK with regards to Vodka Bleu, the one to beat today.

Orpen Wide should be able to get a place in the 4.25 at an attractive 25/1.

Tubbertown1982

browntown Lass Navan 2.55
Luxurix Lingfield 2.55


backing these 2 for certain.

fade2black

Luxurix was the subject of a couple of substantial bets this morning.

CiaranC

Healio wrote:

Thinking of taking on BJK tomorrow, Am i mad ???

I would have to say yes, you are mad :P

CiaranC

CiaranC wrote:

I would have to say yes, you are mad :P

oh dear

knighted

3.8 million matched on bjk -ouch

CiaranC

Wasnt moving great after the race, hope it is just tiredness

mdwexford

Black Jack Ketchum = stuffed

first day he has to battle and he goes out like a light, maybe too bad to be true but all those people holding ante post vouchers at 4/5 must tearing their hair out.


btw good call healio

GreenHorn

Lost a nice afternoon's profit on BJK but just made it back on Exotic Dancer... McCoy, that man is simply the master...

Bad Luck Cailin Alainn but she wouldn't have got near ED anyway surely...

Jonesey, I can see why you love this horse...

The commentator said as he crossed the finish line; "Exotic Dancer pays a huge compliment to Kauto Star..." ... Hard to argue with that...

masterK

Some performance by Exotic Dancer, looks like it'll be the gold cup he heads to.
Our Vic downed tools as soon as he hit a fence.

keepitquiet

I think everyones going mad exotic dancer at 6/1! i took it at 5s thought it would be backed in. was a certain all the way round:) definetly will be in the gold cup now... theres value for it aswell i dont think anyone would bet against it finishing ew!

fade2black

I think it's unfair to say that he downed tools. The fence knocked the stuffing out of him.

Black Jack drifting out to a very attractive price for the World Hurdle now.

mdwexford

Our Vic would have went very close but as usual he made a mistake at a crucial stage, no horse would have kept going after the way he belted the last imo.

If Exotic Dancer is a gold cup horse now (which he is) then what the hell is Kauto Star, the words form, franked, bomb and proof spring to mind.

Im still debating whether BJK is a pig or not ftb, tbc

fade2black

I think it's entirely possible that connections won't be too disappointed about not placing today.

keepitquiet

just put my £60 return on knowhere £30 ew wish me luk. 8/1 opposed to 4.2 on the tote and i fancied it anyway:) watch me lose all!

EDIT: it was 4.1 on the tote:(

mdwexford

Vodka Bleu to get me out, had seconditis so far Inglis Drever, Our Vic and Good Bye Simon

Tush

mdwexford wrote:

Vodka Bleu to get me out, had seconditis so far Inglis Drever, Our Vic and Good Bye Simon

Good Luck.

Healio

Ah Fcuk it one of those days where i done everything wrong.
Didnt take on BJK in the end, and ended up backing Calinn Alainn and Halcon Generladais. Sometimes i don't know why i bother :rolleyes:

mdwexford

Tush wrote:

Good Luck.

Pipe is a scammer :mad: :mad: :mad:

cheers anyway Tush

keepitquiet

pulled up, im gonna shoot my informant who told me that knowhere has improved its jumping. Shouldnt have raced anyway:p

scojones

GreenHorn wrote:

Jonesey, I can see why you love this horse...

Big time. Has won at 22/1, 10/1, 5/1 and gave me a forecast with Kauto for 7.50. I don't think I'd be in profit over the last few months if it wasn't for this horse. Took 64/1 for the win in the gold cup on betfair a while back, and 12/1 for the place (originally thought it was 10s but my betfair history reveals it was 12.9). Today was the big test for it, and it won by 18 lengths (I think that was the official distance). I don't really think this boosts Kauto's form too much - Kauto has not done anything at Cheltenham while Exotic Dancer is a C&D winner now - three wins since November.

In my opinion it's like this, if Kauto Star jumps at Cheltenham it wins (this has been said a zillion times over), but I really cannot see Exotic Dancer not being placed at least. Even if it isn't placed, it has been a pleasure to watch this far, and has made my pocket fairly fat at this stage. My antepost bets for the gold cup are 50 euro win on kauto at 5/2, 100 on exotic dancer at 64/1 and 100 for the place at just under 12s. Today proves that Exotic Dancer is a solid contender for the gold cup, it was 33/1 yesterday with PP for the gold cup, and was 25s just before the off today, and is shortened to 10s now.

Morgans

Our Vic lost his chance of winning today at the second last, but the way he stopped five strides after the second last was evidence, to me, anyway, that he was running on empty at the time. Unfortunately, it is something that caught him out on good ground in the SAC, and he wont stay up the hill in the Gold Cup. Just like One Man and Florida Pearl, he doesnt get up the hill, plain and simple and no way around the fact unfortunately.

It isnt beyond the realms of possibilities that ED will be better over 3m2f than KS. One of the realistic possibilities for the Gold Cup.

masterK

Not so sure Our Vic was running on empty, I've always thought that though talented he is not the toughest of individuals. Maybe saying he downed tools was a bit strong but he certainly changed his attitude when he hit the 2nd last.

Morgans

If the race was run tomorrow, Exotic Dancer would be a short priced favourite.

seand333

Originally Posted by BobbyD10
I'll go for Very Wise to beat Fusli this time around

good call BobbyD10

BobbyD10

seand333 wrote:

good call BobbyD10

Thank you.