Great article by Rizen on spotting weakness in MTTs

ocallagh

I saw this in the latest issue of Card Player and thought I'd try and find it on the web to post here. This is a part of my game I used to employ in MTTs. About 6 months ago I started playing cash and (without realising it) adopted a much more mathematical approach to the game. My MTT success suffered because of this. IMO the article below is very important in becoming a succesfull MTT player. It is crucial on Tribeca 20k GTD and 15k GTD especially at the 400/800, 600/1200 levels etc when you have a large stack and everyone left in the tournament has invested enough time to start taking the tournament seriously. Prior to that level people will be too push-happy.. and later on in the game the stacks won't be big enough.


From http://www.pocketfives.com/851BCEAD-B7AE-4035-9409-4BBFF23613DC.aspx

Rizen wrote:

One thing that we are taught in poker over and over again, be it from books, coaches, videos, or forums, is to constantly be the aggressor. "Attack weakness," we're always told. Another common phrase is "make sure you win the pots nobody else wants." One of the core problems with this is that aside from knowing that we need to be the aggressor, we don't really know how to spot weakness in the first place, and then when we do spot it, we often don't know how or why to attack it.

One thing I want to warn about before I go too much further with this is that you must be paying attention to the table in order to exploit weakness. Good players know how to mix up their game and disguise strength as weakness and vice versa. You must know your opponent well enough to be able to tell if their actions indicate real weakness or disguised strength.

There are really two types of weakness you need to be able to spot. There is obvious weakness, when your opponent makes no attempt to hide the fact that he is weak. There is also disguised weakness, where your opponent tries to hide how weak he is by pretending to be strong. We'll talk some about the more obvious signs of weakness first.

Pre-flop, there is the limper. Limping on its own doesn't necessarily signify weakness. In fact, a limp from early position can be quite strong. That being said, if someone is limping after the first two people have folded, I consider it a sign of weakness. Beginning or unsophisticated players are often doing this with exactly the types of hands you think they'd limp with: Smallish/medium pocket pairs, medium suited connectors, or weak broadway hands like JTo and QJo.

Okay, so we've got a middle/late position limper; how do we exploit him? If the stacks are deep, you can often raise from position to isolate the weak player. I prefer to do this from the button, cutoff, and 2 off the button and not try and exploit these players from middle positions, as we can often then run into a real hand. For this article, I'm assuming that we're exploiting the player because he is weak without a real hand. If we have a real hand, then we're obviously raising for value, and this all doesn't matter as much. With this range of holdings, sometimes the player will fold, but often, if you make something like a 4x raise to isolate them, they'll call, hoping to hit a flop hard and get your entire stack.

Okay, so let's for arguements sake say your opponent calls your bet. What are you looking for?? Ideally what you're looking for are either flops with lots of high cards or a good mixed flop (K82r) or the like. You're going to c-bet most flops though, since their range of hands is such that they usually either hit it hard or missed completely, and you're often only playing this hand to exploit that they're going to miss most of the time (or not hit hard enough to easily call).

Flops to really watch for are low, coordinated flops. A flop like 567 with two of a suit would really scare me, as that often connects with their mid/pair mid/connector holdings. Sometimes on the scarier flops, I'll do a delayed continuation bet (check behind on the flop and bet the turn when checked to). A weak player is often a great source of chips this way, because he will continuously limp-call and fold the flop, feeling like once he hits, he'll make all his money back. He won't, though, because you're making a play on him and will fold when he shows strength.

Post flop, the most common type of obvious weakness is the weak lead. This is when someone makes a less than 1/2 pot bet into a pot. Good players will often use the weak lead to entice action with their big hands, but bad players often do it because they feel they have a decent hand or because they raised pre-flop so they have to bet something, but they are scared so they don't want to bet a lot.

Attacking this type of weak play differs depending on who the pre-flop aggressor was, as well as position. With position, if you were the pre-flop aggressor, the weak lead from your opponent often means that he got a piece of the flop but isn't confident enough to check-raise you. A decent sized raise on the flop will often take down this flop, as he will convince himself that you must have a monster if you raised pre-flop then raised him again on the flop. If he was the pre-flop raiser, the same line often works too, as your opponent often feels since he raised pre-flop he has to bet, but he is afraid enough of the flop to not make it a strong bet.

Out of position, you can check-raise in an attempt to take the pot down right there. Another way to vary your game is to check/call and see if he will fire a second bullet on the turn. Many weak players aren't capable of this, so you can often steal the pot with a river bet. This calling strategy works in position as well, and can be a very powerful move against players who will take one stab at the pot but not two.

Then there are the disguised forms of weakness. Pre-flop, this usually includes raising from a steal position. Re-stealing from these players is very read dependant, and it requires you to be paying attention to the table. There are a lot of pre-flop stealers who will fold when re-raised (assuming stacks are deep), and there are others who will call with almost anything they raise with. I try and categorize players as I play with them based on their pre-flop strength of play and aggression and post-flop strength and aggression. If the person is a poor post flop player, I'll often smooth call and look to take the pot away later, but if they're strong post flop, I'll often re-raise and try and take the pot down right there, particularly if I believe they're getting out of line. If you're dealing with a player that hardly ever raises, then don't assume the raise is weak, even from a steal position.

Post flop, the most common type of disguised weakness is the overbet. Again I caution you that good players will overbet their good hands sometimes to look weak, but average players often do it to discourage calls. Before deciding to try and exploit an overbet you perceive as being weak, make sure you look at the flop texture. Draw heavy boards are more likely to get overbet with a real hand as players attempt to protect their hand. Overbets on uncoordinated boards are more the type of plays we're looking to exploit. Again, how you attack this comes down to your read. Against some players who aren't capable of firing two bullets without a hand, you are better off calling and waiting to see if they can fire twice. Against players capable of firing twice, you'll want to raise to represent real strength. Mixing up your game and playing your opponents based on their strengths and weaknesses is of the utmost importance.

These are just a few of the more common forms of weakness I see, but there are many more. As you play more, you'll learn to identify them as you play and exploit them. One thing you'll notice I didn't talk about is short stack play. If you choose to attack weakness as a short stack, you're just pushing all in, be it pre or post flop. These plays often work, but when they don't, you can often look silly showing down garbage. If you're in the medium stack range, you should be limiting how much you're attacking weakness without a legitimate hand. If you have a 10 M stack and you raise a middle position limper and then c-bet the flop, you're often using close to half your stack on the play. While it may be +cEV to do so, you can often use those chips better with your real hands later. Attacking weak plays is something that, when done right, works about 80% of the time for a small pot and doesn't work 20% of the time for a larger pot. Make sure you can afford the chips that 20% of the time, or else don't do it.

Also, when we're attacking weakness it is a steal, and we must treat it as such. A steal doesn't become a value play because we hit middle pair, unless we hit a flop with two pair or better with our trashy hands (again, for this article, I'm assuming we're attacking them without real cards), it's still a steal. We've shown a lot of strength in the way we've played hands against the weaker players, and if they suddenly spring out of the woodwork, they've often hit their hand. If you're not disciplined enough to be able to lay down middle and even top pair with your raggy hands when you're trying to steal from a weak player, then you're probably giving away any profits and more you're making from your plays. A steal is a steal, and doesn't become a value play unless you hit two pair or better.

Lastly (and probably most importantly), be selective. Use your table image and play style to dictate how often you attack players who show signs of weakness. If you do it every time, it becomes obvious and exploitable (I'll limp with Aces because this guy always raises me!). If you go card dead for a little while, use your tight image to pick up a pot. If you've been getting hit in the face with the deck, use your image of always playing good cards to pick up a few pots. Knowing how and when to do it is largely a 'feel' thing, but you should be aware of how people at the table are reacting to you and adjust your game accordingly.

Best of luck

-Rizen

shoutman

Cheers for posting that OCallagh, great article.

RoundTower

Also, when we're attacking weakness it is a steal, and we must treat it as such. A steal doesn't become a value play because we hit middle pair, unless we hit a flop with two pair or better with our trashy hands (again, for this article, I'm assuming we're attacking them without real cards), it's still a steal. We've shown a lot of strength in the way we've played hands against the weaker players, and if they suddenly spring out of the woodwork, they've often hit their hand. If you're not disciplined enough to be able to lay down middle and even top pair with your raggy hands when you're trying to steal from a weak player, then you're probably giving away any profits and more you're making from your plays. A steal is a steal, and doesn't become a value play unless you hit two pair or better.

I really disagree with this. Just because you thought you were stealing in the first place doesn't mean you have to continue thinking your hand is a steal later on. Middle pair, top pair, or even ace or king high can be enough to win a showdown even after a bit of action. Of course if your opponent shows great strength you should be laying down your weaker hands, but that would be the same if you raised preflop with AA.

The rest of the article is very good.

Lazare

RoundTower wrote:

I really disagree with this. Just because you thought you were stealing in the first place doesn't mean you have to continue thinking your hand is a steal later on. Middle pair, top pair, or even ace or king high can be enough to win a showdown even after a bit of action. Of course if your opponent shows great strength you should be laying down your weaker hands, but that would be the same if you raised preflop with AA.

The rest of the article is very good.

Is it sometimes better value to maintain an image though?

Eg, a live tournament last Sunday night, I raised 5xBB with J7o from the CO after two serial limpers but I got one caller. Flop came QJ7 rainbow and he leads out for a pot size bet, I had him covered and immediately pushed.

My intention was for him to fold, but I don't mind a call. I know I wasted value, but I had a fairly tight image and was making a lot of plays like this, therefore didn't want a showdown.

Is my thinking bad here?

RoundTower

yeah improving your image might be worth $5 to you in the tournament, stacking someone with AQ might be worth more like $100. Depends on the size of the tournament.

That doesn't mean your play is bad, you didn't give many details about the hand. But your thinking is definitely wrong if you are thinking "oh no I'll have to show down this hand and then everyone will know I raise with muck".

kpnuts

phat phucker rizen KOed me from WSOP ME 2006.
looks like a long read, gonna stick on the kettle.

kebabfest

Lazare wrote:

Is it sometimes better value to maintain an image though?

Eg, a live tournament last Sunday night, I raised 5xBB with J7o from the CO after two serial limpers but I got one caller. Flop came QJ7 rainbow and he leads out for a pot size bet, I had him covered and immediately pushed.

My intention was for him to fold, but I don't mind a call. I know I wasted value, but I had a fairly tight image and was making a lot of plays like this, therefore didn't want a showdown.

Is my thinking bad here?

If you want to improve your image wear a new shirt.
J7 isnt really a trapping hand on this board. He probably had top pair and could easily have caught up , so the play was right but not for the reasons you stated. Chips or Table Image ? Chips pay the rent not people thinking you are great,

peeko

Do you guys take personal notes to see if people fire 1 or 2 bullets? Or would you have PT+PAHUD displaying the right stats?

Lazare

kebabfest wrote:

If you want to improve your image wear a new shirt.
J7 isnt really a trapping hand on this board. He probably had top pair and could easily have caught up , so the play was right but not for the reasons you stated. Chips or Table Image ? Chips pay the rent not people thinking you are great,

I think the concept of table image has you somewhat confused.

Goodluck2me

kpnuts wrote:

phat phucker rizen KOed me from WSOP ME 2006.
looks like a long read, gonna stick on the kettle.

were you on a steal?:D


By table image im sure he means more along the lines of being able to pick up pots with trash hands later, by virtue of the fact everyone thinks you only play with monsters.

CaptainNemo

Table image is always something you can exploit as long as you switch your style around, isn't it? If I've built up a tight image, then get caught stealing or flop a monster and have to show down a trash hand, I love it. First of all, it will confuse people who thought that they understood your "style". Second of all, many people may not have "read" you up to that point and will now put you down as a loose player. This is the moment to tighten up and get paid off on your legitimate hands. If you don't have enough chips to tighten up and wait for a while then that's just unfortunate.

I don't care what my table image is - if people think I'm a calling station, maniac bluffer, rock, whatever, I just note what they think and use it against them. It may be different in the higher-level tournaments but in the ones I've been playing so far people make it surprisingly clear to you what they think of your play - they will whisper to their friend that you are a call-anything donk, or they'll say "Nice rock garden down there" when you fold your 10th missed flop in a row. Maybe a really good player will lie in this spot but mostly from what I've seen, people don't realize how much information they're giving away by revealing what they think of your play.

Sorry if this is off topic and I know this is an old thread but this issue of table image interests me a lot.

The Tourist

I've used the strategies in this article for online MTT's over the years with great success, but they have, in general, failed me in low buy-in live MTTs, simply because they just won't fold . Anyone want to suggest modifications for live play (value betting good cards aside)?