20/40 cash hand

Norwich Fan Rob

20/40 on tribeca.

im playing 2.5k, both villians cover.
i have KK on the bb.

button (solid, just quite aggr) makes it 200 to go.
sb, loony (very LAGGGGGGGGGG) makes it 877 to go.
i flat call in the BB.
button re raises to $1877 to go.

what % of the time is this AA and should i push or fold?

gosplan

Jesus, I dunno.

It's a lovely pot if he manages to take it down there and then so with looney lag's image and your flat call he may be making a move with queens hoping to end it now.

I dunno, toss up between queens and aces I guess.

Would his uber-agressive nature lead you to believe something like jacks or AK or does that just not happen at these levels?

Open bad beat/moaning/boast thread and then call

HiCloy

A decent % of the time - hard to see what else would come over the top of a reraise and flat call for 1/3 of stack.

Then again I've never folded KK preflopm, and certainly wouldn't here with those odds

valor

did the SB fold?

you should push now for various reasons, AA is his most likely hand but given pot odds its still +ev

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ocallagh

stick it in. if the button is a decent player he'll understand your range is a bit wider than KK/AA in this situation (with LAAAAAAAAG boy making it 877) and could easily be shoving with JJ/QQ/AK.

sikes

his range is so tight considering we flat call 1/3 our stack.

How is his button raise compared to his previous ones?

assuming he is in anyway decent for this level, it can only be AA or KK. Considering we have KK, we are splitting the pot 1/7th of the time.

ligger

Think I read somewhere (harrington book if I remember right) that 23 times out of 24 your Cowboys are not gonna run into AA. With those odds I am pushing.

DeadParrot

what are the odds of aa and KK being dealt in the same hand??
roughly 220-1 by my estimation

NeVeR

DeadParrot wrote:

what are the odds of aa and KK being dealt in the same hand??
roughly 220-1 by my estimation

I've seen this many many times.. Some times i've got the AA and and the other guy has KK.....:) some times i have KK

I'm sure the river card was seen with that many players in the pot. Would you have won ? did you call ?

sikes

its irrelevant that you run KK into AA 1/24 times. we have a lot information to work from and arent dealing with random hands anymore.

HiCloy

DeadParrot wrote:

what are the odds of aa and KK being dealt in the same hand??
roughly 220-1 by my estimation

Against one opponent 203/1 given that we have KK

There's 2 here though so its about 101/1

Shortstack

Most of the time I expect your KK is good. Depends who button is and how many people at table. quite possible a squeeze with decent A or PP. Obviously sometimes it is AA. I presume SB folded?

You are risking $1623 to win $4254 so you are getting 2.62:1, I doubt he has Aces often enough for it to be -EV to push, I am sure someone will work out your true equity.

El Stuntman

there is something fishy about this thread

imo, someone as good as NFR doesn't need to ask us to validate an easy decision here....hero turned villain stuff coming?

Ste05

El Stuntman wrote:

imo, someone as good as NFR doesn't need to ask us to validate an easy decision here....hero turned villain stuff coming?

Possibly, unless NFR is on some crazy mad down swing and his confidence is completely shot to sh1t. This will be AK, QQ, JJ, lots of other sh1t enough times to make this a trivial push. It's only ~60BB's deep, this is no where near deep enough to even contemplate folding KK PF.

BTW Rob, what are the other 2 stack sizes, maybe Rob's 60 BB's is not the major thing behind the other 2 players play here. They both cover Rob, but by how much, are they both playing with 200 BB's+ This will affect the hand hugely but not our decision to push.

jimbling

It's a tough situation, but really can't see past a push. You're getting pretty good odds just against the button, saying nothing about a call from LAG.

I regular squeeze effect would have been a bigger raise by button, so AA is a bit more likely than I would normally allow for. It will still be AK or QQ enough to make it +EV I would think.


A point of value is we don't know the stack of Button and LAG?? If these stacks are much bigger than yours it may have an impact in Buttons play here too. i.e. if button and LAG both have about 8k+ then what you have becomes slightly less important if button thinks he is ahead of LAG and can get him to commit his stack foolishly.

Norwich Fan Rob

the other 2 are both playing 5k
omghaha folded the sb
______mk______ pushed from the button.

cardshark202

Never fold KK preflop with 100bbs or less.

opr

Easy push.

Opr

Hectorjelly

cardshark202 wrote:

Never fold KK preflop with 100bbs or less.

and certainly not when a good portion of that stack is already in the pot!

Gholimoli

Often when you reraise pre-flop(basically with a lot of cards to come and a lot of future betting streets) which makes the pot significantly large it usually narrows your hand range down in a way that most times your hand is pretty well defined for villain .
So because this reraise defines your hand for villain what should be done is making the raise a substantial amount so that villain cannot call profitably knowing what you have.
For example
Player A raises to 20
Player B makes it 60
Player C has AA .
If you decide to put in another raise here then making it 100 or 120 is really bad because you are really telling A and B what you have but you are not really charging them enough for this information.
I think this kind of applies here as well with your flat call.
A raises ,B reraises and you flat call a huge reraise .
This defines your hand really well but does not charge A and B for this.
For example even if A folds then B can play perfectly against you on pretty much any flop.
Suppose flop comes T 6 2 and B pushes, you will often call here and B (if he is half decent) can easily do this with a set knowing you will call often.
Or he can just drop if he can’t beat over pair.

As played I think you should call .

Norwich Fan Rob

ok guys, thanks for the replies.

heres my take on it.

i flat call omghaha as he is VERY agg, and will push or at least bet big on most flops, i always check call against this dude.
at this point the dutch guys 200 button raise can be any hand.
however, he knows im not calling 877 reraise by omghaha without QQ+, maybe AK, and he still comes over the top............i really think the ONLY hand he can do this with that i beat is maybe QQ, hes a good solid player, one of the ones i rate a lot.

if i originally push after omghahas raise, this is bad, omghaha will fold JJ, TT etc that he may lead with on a low flop, the dutch guy will then fold maybe even QQ, certainly AK, all hands i want in...........however, he will call with aces.

i was 95% CERTAIN dutch guy had aces, i still pushed, i really didnt like it, feel a bit better now after everyone else says they would push, was a near 6k pot after all.................i was right, he had aces, it cost me 2.5k to prove myself right........

Gholimoli

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

ok guys, thanks for the replies.

heres my take on it.

i flat call omghaha as he is VERY agg, and will push or at least bet big on most flops, i always check call against this dude.
at this point the dutch guys 200 button raise can be any hand.
however, he knows im not calling 877 reraise by omghaha without QQ+, maybe AK, and he still comes over the top............i really think the ONLY hand he can do this with that i beat is maybe QQ, hes a good solid player, one of the ones i rate a lot.

if i originally push after omghahas raise, this is bad, omghaha will fold JJ, TT etc that he may lead with on a low flop, the dutch guy will then fold maybe even QQ, certainly AK, all hands i want in...........however, he will call with aces.

i was 95% CERTAIN dutch guy had aces, i still pushed, i really didnt like it, feel a bit better now after everyone else says they would push, was a near 6k pot after all.................i was right, he had aces, it cost me 2.5k to prove myself right........

you say here that dutch puts you on QQ+ maybe AK becuz you flat called 870 raise and then you say you want him in the pot becuase post flop he may lead with TT,JJ,AK.
if he is a good player and he puts you on QQ+,AK he is not going to lead on any flop that dosent have overpair beat.
again flat calling puts you on a huge disadvantage IMO.

Norwich Fan Rob

theres no line u can take after a 200 raise, 877 re raise, then u have to act, that doesnt look strong.

valor

Gholimoli, your confusing the 2 players

NFR cold calls so the SB will lead 1010 JJ QQ on low flops, while he says the Button is the better player who will give him the tighter range

Ste05

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

theres no line u can take after a 200 raise, 877 re raise, then u have to act, that doesnt look strong.

.

And flat calling hoping the button will fold leaving you with position on the Loony is the weakest possible move (even though it looks very strong). It's just a cooler hand, UL Rob. A push there will only get called by AA (on the button) and make the SB fold probably everything he has (apart from AA) and takes his aggression away from him, why on earth would you want to re-raise there??.

robinlacey

i don't think you can fold KK preflop for 60bbs

however,i don't think you should be in this situation either,you should just push when the action comes around to you first of all,this is a no brainer with a short stack,and your flat call looks stronger than a push...

also,second guessing yourself because "it was a 6k pot" is pretty bad,its not a 6k pot,its a 150bbs pot,and evaluating decisions based on the amount of money involved suggests that you're not comfortable at the stakes.

cardshark202

robinlacey wrote:

i don't think you can fold KK preflop for 60bbs

however,i don't think you should be in this situation either,you should just push when the action comes around to you first of all,this is a no brainer with a short stack,and your flat call looks stronger than a push...

also,second guessing yourself because "it was a 6k pot" is pretty bad,its not a 6k pot,its a 150bbs pot,and evaluating decisions based on the amount of money involved suggests that you're not comfortable at the stakes.

I agree with this obviously. I also think that buying in short puts you at a serious disadvantage, especially if you feel you are a better player than most of the others. The only time I've ever bought in short was from a misclick.

MrPillowTalk

Against him its allways a push. What is it with you and trying to reason folding KK? You dropped it in citywest and were shown what? K4 or something, your not deep this is a ship it spot 100% of the time.

Im with Robin on this one as well Rob, flat calling looks stronger than a push, flat calling is ok if you have 5k behind but that shallow a push is better, they will know you dont need only AA KK to reraise omghaha.

Ste05

MrPillowTalk wrote:

they will know you dont need only AA KK to reraise omghaha.

Will they know that omghaha will call the re-raise light?? Or is the push meant to look like a steal, expecting a light call from button or omghaha??

NFR has said that HIS norm is to check call omghaha, (i.e. a passive route) but this shallow it's basically irrelevant what NFR does.

MrPillowTalk

Ste05 wrote:

Will they know that omghaha will call the re-raise light?? Or is the push meant to look like a steal, expecting a light call from button or omghaha??

NFR has said that HIS norm is to check call omghaha, (i.e. a passive route) but this shallow it's basically irrelevant what NFR does.

No its not meant to look like a steal, basically omg is the loosest player in the game so Rob can tank it in here with any premium hand, everyone will know Rob is strong but there is no way he can only have AA or KK to move on him.