My ipod made me do this..very strange situation

Lissavalley

Latter stages of a live tournament last nite.

I get ak utg and make it 15k. (Blinds 3k, 6k) I have about 105k . Girl on the cutoff raises to 35k. My ipod is up a bit too loud. Folded back to me. I think shes all in and call while flipping over my cards. However she has about 50k remaining.

Anyway we both get to see a flop with her knowing my cards. Flop comes a44. I check into her to see what she does thinking she'll check. (Im willing to check it down after my blunder)

However she bets 25k!! Actions on me!! There are 2 possible hands she can have. AA or AK. Call or fold now...

Any ideas!!?

RoundTower

if she can only have AK/AA, and would always play them the same way, I think you have to push. But it's a maths problem, not too difficult. Consider that AK is 6 times more likely than AA here.

edit: oops 6 not 3, thanks brian

ntlbell

Lissavalley wrote:

Latter stages of a live tournament last nite.

I get ak utg and make it 15k. (Blinds 3k, 6k) I have about 105k . Girl on the cutoff raises to 35k. My ipod is up a bit too loud. Folded back to me. I think shes all in and call while flipping over my cards. However she has about 50k remaining.

Anyway we both get to see a flop with her knowing my cards. Flop comes a44. I check into her to see what she does thinking she'll check. (Im willing to check it down after my blunder)

However she bets 25k!! Actions on me!! There are 2 possible hands she can have. AA or AK. Call or fold now...

Any ideas!!?

A number of mistakes.

Wearing an Ipod while at the wheel, this is only for cool exp players.

If you are going to wear one, lower it down, so one you don't annoy me and two you can hear the size of raises if you can't work it out from the amount of chips.

If I was in her position I would also bet out on any flop with any two.

But if I was you I fold and lower down that box of noise.

brianmc

Girls are sneaky.

I guess you have to fold unless she's a complete blithering idiot.

Edit: Roundtower's post has shown me the error of my ways. Call. (Although I think AK is 6 times more likely than AA here.)

Lissavalley

ntlbell wrote:

A number of mistakes.

Wearing an Ipod while at the wheel, this is only for cool exp players.

If you are going to wear one, lower it down, so one you don't annoy me and two you can hear the size of raises if you can't work it out from the amount of chips.

If I was in her position I would also bet out on any flop with any two.

But if I was you I fold and lower down that box of noise.

Was just moved table and there was a lot of aggro on previous one which was why ipod was up loud. To be honest I cant see her betting with any 2. Doesn't make sense.

Gholimoli

Im a bit rusty with my math at the moment but im sure I will be corrected if im wrong.
Basically if she can only have AA,AK then:
He will have AK 6 ways(3 Ks remaining with 2 As)
He will have AA just 1 way (only 2 As remaining)
So he is 6 times more likely to have AK than AA.
There is 80K in the pot(35K +35K +blinds) .
She has 50K behind and bets 25K.
Just to make it simple we assume you will either fold or put her all in as all the money will more than likely go in eventually anyway.

So you have to call 50 to get 80+50/2 (divided by two because of the split pot) = 65K

Or call 50 and lose 50 (when he has AA) .
So by calling you gain 15K 6 times and lose 50K 1 time .
This suggests you should shove.

Caution : my math is all over the place at the moment.

ntlbell

Lissavalley wrote:

Was just moved table and there was a lot of aggro on previous one which was why ipod was up loud. To be honest I cant see her betting with any 2. Doesn't make sense.

She more then likley isn't betting any two.

but I would.

5starpool

80k in the pot, she has 50 behind and bets 25? Silly girl. Shove.

RoundTower

Gholimoli wrote:

Im a bit rusty with my math at the moment but im sure I will be corrected if im wrong.
Basically if she can only have AA,AK then:
He will have AK 6 ways(3 Ks remaining with 2 As)
He will have AA just 1 way (only 2 As remaining)
So he is 6 times more likely to have AK than AA.
There is 80K in the pot(35K +35K +blinds) .
She has 50K behind and bets 25K.
Just to make it simple we assume you will either fold or put her all in as all the money will more than likely go in eventually anyway.

So you have to call 50 to get 80+50/2 (divided by two because of the split pot) = 65K

Or call 50 and lose 50 (when he has AA) .
So by calling you gain 15K 6 times and lose 50K 1 time .
This suggests you should shove.

Caution : my math is all over the place at the moment.

your maths is wrong here, you gain 40k (half the pot) when you win. the line above should read "you have to call 50 to get (80 + 50 + 50)/2."

so you gain 40k 6 times and lose 50k 1 time.

there are 2 more things to consider:
a) she may not tend to reraise with AK, plenty of people would just call (or shove) preflop here, I don't think it's sexist to say the only read I have on her is she is female so probably on the tight passive side.
b) she may be bluffing with a lower pair.

I think it's a clear shove anyway, there is just too much in the pot.

Lissavalley

RoundTower wrote:

your maths is wrong here, you gain 40k (half the pot) when you win. the line above should read "you have to call 50 to get (80 + 50 + 50)/2."

so you gain 40k 6 times and lose 50k 1 time.

there are 2 more things to consider:
a) she may not tend to reraise with AK, plenty of people would just call (or shove) preflop here, I don't think it's sexist to say the only read I have on her is she is female so probably on the tight passive side.
b) she may be bluffing with a lower pair.

I think it's a clear shove anyway, there is just too much in the pot.

Hadnt played with her that often. From what i know she is a fairly solid player. I also offered to fold if she showed which she turned down...

ntlbell

Lissavalley wrote:

Hadnt played with her that often. From what i know she is a fairly solid player. I also offered to fold if she showed which she turned down...

What song was playing when she bet out?

Gholimoli

RoundTower wrote:

your maths is wrong here, you gain 40k (half the pot) when you win. the line above should read "you have to call 50 to get (80 + 50 + 50)/2."

so you gain 40k 6 times and lose 50k 1 time.

there are 2 more things to consider:
a) she may not tend to reraise with AK, plenty of people would just call (or shove) preflop here, I don't think it's sexist to say the only read I have on her is she is female so probably on the tight passive side.
b) she may be bluffing with a lower pair.

I think it's a clear shove anyway, there is just too much in the pot.

i stand corrected as RT is right about winning 40K 6 times.
however i dont think points a,b should be considered.
as the OP said she either has AA or AK and we are trying to come up with the best play agianst these two hands.

its possible she has a 4 or some a wider distribution of hands which makes things very different.
or for example point A can just higer the chanes of her having AA becuase of the raise which effects the 6/1 ratio which changes things again.

karlh

if she has quads i'm marrying her on the blind.

Mellor

From the info given, its a call.
But alot could be left out. Is she possible of making a move here, knowing that you are ahead. But she might get you off the hand.

I think its a defo call. I imagine you lost. She either had the AA, drew out on the bluff or caught some sick runner flush to take it with her king (if possible0

LuckyLloyd

This post has been deleted.

ntlbell

karlh wrote:

if she has quads i'm marrying her on the blind.

Good Call...

sendic

maybe she had 44 but didn't look at them properly and thought they were aces...

Lissavalley

Gholimoli wrote:

i stand corrected as RT is right about winning 40K 6 times.
however i dont think points a,b should be considered.
as the OP said she either has AA or AK and we are trying to come up with the best play agianst these two hands.

its possible she has a 4 or some a wider distribution of hands which makes things very different.
or for example point A can just higer the chanes of her having AA becuase of the raise which effects the 6/1 ratio which changes things again.

No chance she has a 4....

Tar.Aldarion

At worst she has AA, looking at the odds and pot, shove.

Edit: was this in galway and was it the girl that won?
Don't use ipods, they are just for super cool players.

coadyj

who was she???

serious underbets mean two things, week and strong
normaly its only strong for incredibly good players.

she was week a **** and you should have cashed in