Odds question

corblimey

This is something that I don't get, as my grasp on maths and stuff is fairly weak. How come the odds of AQo vs 99 (where the suits of both nines are different to the AQ) are better than the odds of AQo vs (say) 44?

cards     win   %win    lose  %lose   tie  %tie     EV
As Qd  754286  44.05  952801  55.64  5217  0.30  0.442
9c 9h  952801  55.64  754286  44.05  5217  0.30  0.558

cards     win   %win    lose  %lose   tie  %tie     EV
As Qd  782596  45.70  922445  53.87  7263  0.42  0.459
4c 4h  922445  53.87  782596  45.70  7263  0.42  0.541

I know it's bound to be obvious, but can someone simple it up for me?

5starpool

Probably due to the odds of the 44 being counterfeited on a board something like 8899J

carrigeen

main reason is bigger chance of board double pairing

corblimey

That makes sense.

cooker3

also, 9 will block of certain straight possibilities for AQ which 4 doesn't

Mellor

no actually 4 blocks the wheel straight, so straight outs are about the same.

cooker3

Mellor wrote:

no actually 4 blocks the wheel straight, so straight outs are about the same.

Hmmmn, good point. I will go back to my databases study and just forget this ever happened