Easy call or easy fold?

Flushdraw

Down to last 4 in the €500 pokerevents game last night. Chip stacks are approx. 280k, 230k, 220k and i have 130k.

Reads and image doesnt really come into play anymore. Its become all about getting your chips in first.

Blinds are 8k/15k with a 1.5k ante so 29k in the pot. I'm BB . Folded around to the SB and he pushes.

For the first 2 orbits, either UTG or the button pushed so its the first time its folded into the blinds.

I have K10. Should i call?

Slash/ED

I'd call. I don't think he'll shove on just anything, but it's not that likely it's a hand that has you dominated and something like ace king I don't think he'd be open shoving. If anything I'd say you could be looking at a coinflip and you have to take it at that stage.

ligger

If you had been in the SB with this hand would you have been happy to shove? If yes then defo call. I would call anyway as this is not a bad hand 4 handed and unless he has AK,A10 or a pocket pair higher than 9 I am happy enough.

LuckyLloyd

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Hitman Actual

What's the prize pool jump? And I know you say reads dont come into it, but do you think SB is pushing with any two?

I think it's a marginal call, but I doubt there's much in it either way.

bops

easy call
you are probably 60/40 fav
...but you will loose no doubt :rolleyes:

Flushdraw

1st 18k
2nd 11.5k
3rd 7k
4th 5.5k

I think thats what we settled on. it was Vinny G on the SB. very solid player from what i've seen and he'd just had his last 2 blinds snapped off by raises so as we all know, you need to steal at least once an orbit to stay alive so his move may have been premeditated regardless of what his holding was.

Norwich Fan Rob

personally, with those blinds, i fold there, am i the odd one out

Hectorjelly

I think id fold.


He could well have AK and just because you are happy pushing with something doesnt mean you should be happy to call with it

LuckyLloyd

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Flushdraw

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

personally, with those blinds, i fold there, am i the odd one out

Rob, just wondering what you meant by "with those blinds" you fold?

Flushdraw

LuckyLloyd wrote:

Well, there is a €1,500 jump for surviving one more elimination. And it is bound to come fast considering the size of the blinds and the stacks. You will be left with 100k at the end of the round if you don't defend, and will have two hands to find something to go with. I dunno, its a tough one.

Surviving 1 more elimination was never a thought in my mind. The jump to 7k wasn't a huge one but if i double up here i have a decent shot at taking it down. Not trying to justify a bad call or a bad fold here, just wondering what the correct play seems to be.

Do i call with A10 or 88 for example?

BigCityBanker

Nobody likes to have their blinds robbed but you can only defend them if you have the artillery. Given the circumstances I fold here also. At these blind levels alot can happen over the course of 8 or so hands. sit tight I say.

LuckyLloyd

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robinlacey

i think call or folding are both fine,but the fact that this is the first time he's had a chance to push and steal the blinds in a few hands makes me lean towards calling...
i mean his range could be any two cards,i know i'd push here with 42o,which incidentally is how i went out of the IPC

ollyk1

If your image is reasonable at the table and your own steals have been getting through I think I fold. There isn't a whole lot of difference to the impacct of your pushes by letting this one go.



Plus I don't really like rag king hands at the minute!!

P.S. Well done Tony on making it this far I'm not aware of the final results but whatever it was it seems to have been another pretty tasty money for our TV champ!!

Flushdraw

LuckyLloyd wrote:

I agree Tony, just kind of playing devil's advocate to what Rob said. There might be an argument for "sitting tight and seeing what happens" as Noel has said - but if you want to win you need to double up. I'm calling if I think my hand will be significantly better than the villians range. K10 is just about minimum.

88 and A10 would be insta - calls in my book.

I get what youre saying Lloyd. I was only allin twice in the tournament up to that hand. Brendan and Neil tend to play the majority of their poker preflop with big pushes where i like to see a flop where i feel i have a slight edge over the average player (not calling the players at the FT average btw).

This edge was taken away because any raise bar my own, was an allin. I felt that Vinny may have pushed with a small pair. It was about 115k more to win 145 and if i take it i have approx 260k and a shot at €18k so i decide so i decide to call and take a race.

Not much of a race when he shows A10s and with no help i take €5.5k. i really wanted a big win so i felt it was a €13k call. Interesting that NFR and HJ would have folded. Both vastly experienced and highly talented poker players. I've had a good 12 months in live tournies making €55k but i'm still learning.

I remember HJ making a gutsy call on the bubble of the €1k GJP festival with 77 for his whole stack when he was fairly comfortable in chips. I personally wouldnt have made this call so i guess it really boils down to gut instinct in the end

bops

I can't believe that so many people are saying fold here

This takes us back to the debates about TLS...

We all agree that the SB push is with any 2? Yes??

If so calling here is +EV, considering you probably have the best hand and the call is 115k to win 260k+

...so the hand in isolation is DEFINATELY a call...


...in saying that if you want to sit tight and hold on for 3rd, or wait for a better spot (better hand, or pushing instead of calling the push), i suppose that's fine too.

bops

Flushdraw wrote:

...Not much of a race when he shows A10s and with no help i take €5.5k.

That's just unlucky Flushdraw being dominated
I still think you made the correct/brave call

ollyk1

bops wrote:

I can't believe that so many people are saying fold here

This takes us back to the debates about TLS...

We all agree that the SB push is with any 2? Yes??

If so calling here is +EV, considering you probably have the best hand and the call is 115k to win 260k+

...so the hand in isolation is DEFINATELY a call...


...in saying that if you want to sit tight and hold on for 3rd, or wait for a better spot (better hand, or pushing instead of calling the push), i suppose that's fine too.

Two people (in pushbot mode) have folded so the average holding improves. Tony has a stronger image then the remaining players. He still has a stack to hurt anyone.

BigCityBanker

Bops the opening paragraph is of interest to you I hope. I have never read a poker theory book or a tournament poker book but this is how I think in such a hand... HJ/NFR/KP - please tell me if my thinking is flawed.

One would expect that the pushing range at this point of the tournament would have opened up quite a bit. But table dynamics must also play a major part of your decision to push. In the case of your scenario you would expect players pushing against you to have realised that they must maintain their range as being pretty tight as you are more likely to call with a marginal hand. I think this should be quite a large factor in your decision to call in this instance and hence for me why it would be a fold.

I maintained my stack in the main event at the weekend by snapping off the raises of the bigger stacks and avoiding the smaller stacks. They are more likely to use their stack to bully the table with a marginal hand but are less likely, in general, to call the reraise with the same marginal hand as they dont want to give away their hard earned stack for the sake of a marginal holding. This continued to work for me up to the point where Terry McDaid who was the serial raiser with the big stack finally had enough of me snapping off his button raises in unopened pots or one limper pots. He finally called me all in with QJ against my AK and MHWG - this hand done wonders for my table image and gave serious credence to my future moves.

BIG-SLICK-POKER

Well bud the way the blinds were it was a crapshoot ,I would have folded it but it was a tough spot in relation to the orbit of blinds, u saw me pushing into vinny with K/Q on the button i laid down a pair that hand on the button 2/2 and would have changed your thinking there if i push ... First time i have met ya at a game really liked your play ... Enjoyed it ... Was happy to chop it with Brendan walls as the blinds were to much then he had 4/1 with the next blind at 10-20 and i had 190 ---- happy to get an extra 2.5k and take home a profit of 14k for the weekend


Neill

LuckyLloyd

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Flushdraw

BIG-SLICK-POKER wrote:

Well bud the way the blinds were it was a crapshoot ,I would have folded it but it was a tough spot in relation to the orbit of blinds, u saw me pushing into vinny with K/Q on the button i laid down a pair that hand on the button 2/2 and would have changed your thinking there if i push ... First time i have met ya at a game really liked your play ... Enjoyed it ... Was happy to chop it with Brendan walls as the blinds were to much then he had 4/1 with the next blind at 10-20 and i had 190 ---- happy to get an extra 2.5k and take home a profit of 14k for the weekend

Neill

We all know how much of a crapshoot it was. U got crippled when u ran into Aces and then you managed to get 2 or 3 steals and double ups to put u well back in the game. There was a good atmosphere at the table and its a pity we couldnt get the blinds put back to play some real poker. Nice meeting you too Neil and putting a face to the name.

It was a nice little deal heads up get the extra 2k off Brendan. Well played and congrats on 2nd place.

kpnuts

As someone pointed out these kind of calls/folds depend a lot on the tempo/dynamic of the particular table. Seeing as it's the first chance in a few laps that the SB has had an opening to push, and he does so, I would probably lean towards a call, although KT would be exactly on the threshold of calling/folding here. AT and KQ would be INSTAcalls, KJ probably always a call too. However, I can also see the merit in folding the KT and instead open jamming ANY 2 cards (except genuine premium Grade 1 hands with which I would obviously try to get some action) next hand on button (if UTG folds) and certainly open jamming ANY 2 from UTG in 2 hands' time. Horribly unlucky to run into one of only 9 hands (AA KK QQ JJ TT AK AT KQ KJ) that have you in really bad shape here.

Agree with your way of thinking in general, BCB, for mid to latter stages of tourneys. I think you're talking about resteals here, and I too would always target the medium to large stacks, those with plenty to lose, for these plays, rather than the shorter stacks who are likely to have the "Ah, shure **** it, I call" moment and put in the rest of their paltry stack with a fairly poor hand ... that is beating the hell out of mine!

mickste

unlucky tony i can see your logic but would prefer to fold in that instance .
A rag is a big hand at that stage, and id prefer to get my chips in first rather than calling a raise all in with a hand like yours.

wp though mate and a nice result.
congrats

Hectorjelly

Just because its +EV for the sb to push with any 2 doesnt mean he is doing so, in fact id be pretty sure of the opposite.

bops

BigCityBanker wrote:

One would expect that the pushing range at this point of the tournament would have opened up quite a bit. But table dynamics must also play a major part of your decision to push. In the case of your scenario you would expect players pushing against you to have realised that they must maintain their range as being pretty tight as you are more likely to call with a marginal hand. I think this should be quite a large factor in your decision to call in this instance and hence for me why it would be a fold.

I see your point 100%...still a call though!! - nice to meet you btw.

HectorJelly wrote:

Just because its +EV for the sb to push with any 2 doesnt mean he is doing so, in fact id be pretty sure of the opposite.

In your own style: Rubbish

kpnuts wrote:

...Horribly unlucky to run into one of only 9 hands (AA KK QQ JJ TT AK AT KQ KJ) that have you in really bad shape here.

It's as simple as that!

Hectorjelly

bops wrote:

In your own style: Rubbish

Yeah im usually right though, and you are wrong so it comes across badly. Very few players are actually going to push 42o there though, even though they should. Me and you (and a few others) are the exception.

fuzzbox

bops wrote:

I can't believe that so many people are saying fold here

This takes us back to the debates about TLS...

We all agree that the SB push is with any 2? Yes??

If so calling here is +EV, considering you probably have the best hand and the call is 115k to win 260k+

...so the hand in isolation is DEFINATELY a call...


...in saying that if you want to sit tight and hold on for 3rd, or wait for a better spot (better hand, or pushing instead of calling the push), i suppose that's fine too.

We all agree that if WE were in the SB that we might push with any 2.
WE are not the SB.

I think I fold here.

bops

Hectorjelly wrote:

Yeah im usually right though, and you are wrong so it comes across badly. Very few players are actually going to push 42o there though, even though they should. Me and you (and a few others) are the exception.

lol i i'll take that as a compliment

bops

fuzzbox wrote:

We all agree that if WE were in the SB that we might push with any 2.
WE are not the SB.

I think I fold here.

seeing that he had AT and WE don't get luckboxed - i'd fold now too

fuzzbox

bops wrote:

seeing that he had AT and WE don't get luckboxed - i'd fold now too

If you buy X-ray specs, you can save all this sort of hassle.

Hectorjelly

only if players kept the cards face up under their hands

bops

i've officially taken both of ye off my top 10 grudge list

Flushdraw

bops wrote:

i've officially taken both of ye off my top 10 grudge list

Well theres one good thing to come out of this thread...the reconcilliation of Bops, HJ and Fuzz!

Norwich Fan Rob

i will explain my thoughts, i havent read the other replies, too lazy, just jumped out of my cash game for a breather........

SB knows u are short and liable to call with a reasonably wide range.
SB is not desperate to pick up the blinds himself as he is reasonably comfy.
You can pass and open push one of the next 2 hands and the chances are 4 handed the others will not have a calling hand.
Yes, on the SB i defo push KT here, put calling is a totally different matter.
Even if its a total steal, with 68 or the like, u are not that far ahead.
If its AK, KQ etc, u are miles behind.
Basically, i dont like calling with KT as u are never far ahead, but can be far behind, we still have a stack that can be played, and some folding equity with 100k, and i prefer to pass and open jam any 2 next hand, than to call this.

sikes

ligger wrote:

If you had been in the SB with this hand would you have been happy to shove? If yes then defo call

thats just wrong.

good post NFR.

BigCityBanker

sikes wrote:

thats just wrong.

good post NFR.

.

Flushdraw

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

i will explain my thoughts, i havent read the other replies, too lazy, just jumped out of my cash game for a breather........

SB knows u are short and liable to call with a reasonably wide range.
SB is not desperate to pick up the blinds himself as he is reasonably comfy.
You can pass and open push one of the next 2 hands and the chances are 4 handed the others will not have a calling hand.
Yes, on the SB i defo push KT here, put calling is a totally different matter.
Even if its a total steal, with 68 or the like, u are not that far ahead.
If its AK, KQ etc, u are miles behind.
Basically, i dont like calling with KT as u are never far ahead, but can be far behind, we still have a stack that can be played, and some folding equity with 100k, and i prefer to pass and open jam any 2 next hand, than to call this.

Cheers Rob. I like your train of thought here. My train got stuck in the first station, obviously yours goes all the way around the track!