Mega satellite hand

Brayruit · 06-01-2007 1:58pm #1

I'm pretty sure I made the right decision here, but...

Some of the facts might be slightly off, but I'm pretty sure I have the important facts right:

Mega satellite to the IPC. 48 starters, 9 tickets + €900

We're down to about 17 left at 2 tables. The table I am at has 9.

Blinds 800 / 1500 + 100 ante

Average stack is 14,000 so a lot of players are short stacked relative to the opening pot.

My stack is 8600 before I post (short but by no means shortest). I am in the BB so I am left with 7000.

Anyway UTG goes all in for about 6000. UTG+1 reraises all in for about 11k. Fold, and then a MP player, with a large stack calls. Folded around to me.

My views of them: UTG is tight, but obviously short, so could be 2 high cards or A low.
UTG+1: LAG
MP: was very tight early on, but somewhat looser now

I look down at 99.

A chance to quadruple up and virtually guarantee a ticket
OR time to get out of the way when at least one of them could be on an overpair, and I am probably not going to be more than 35% to win the hand even in some better scenarios (also there is a good chance that 1 or 2 more players will be knocked out or fatally crippled putting me closer to the tickets)

Views?

Bandara · 06-01-2007 2:06pm

I know the chance to quad up is tempting at the time but you have to fold here for me, your looking at players being knocked out here for sure leaving only 6 more to go before you get a ticket.

I'd be of the opinion than pushing with any two cards in the next hand would be giving you a better chance of surviving the hand than this spot here.

How did it end out?

ollyk1 · 06-01-2007 2:16pm

It's a fold for me.

Brayruit · 06-01-2007 3:50pm

Of course I'm really just looking for someone to tell me I did the right thing

What happened is that I folded... showed the guy beside me 2 red 9s as the cards were thrown into the muck.

He was surprised at my decision

The 3 players turned over AK, AQ and KJ.

How smug I looked when there was a K on the flop.

How sick I felt when the turn was a 9.

And how they laughed when the last 9 came on the river just to rub it in.

Anyway - never mind the results based thinking, I was pretty sure the decision was right, I am just bugged by the "what mighta been".

I was knocked out 2 hands later when 66 failed to hold up against QJ

Bandara · 06-01-2007 3:54pm

LOL

thats sick, serves you right for listening to me

MacStacked · 06-01-2007 3:59pm

Brayuit try not to post the results so quickly it is likely to skew the responses.

For me its is definitely a fold. You are very very often dominated.

Although I am pretty sure you felt as sick as a plane to Lourdes..

pf

flop

turn

river :eek:

phantom_lord · 06-01-2007 4:10pm

it's a fold here for me.

Ste05 · 06-01-2007 4:17pm

Pretty sick odds and descriptions of Villains, but I'm still leaning towards a Fold in a Satellite. Best case scenario is you're up against 3 or 4 over cards and an underpair. But the chances that none of them have 1010+ is small